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Frontrunning: February 2

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  • Germany Sees No Need to Scrap Troika in Overseeing Greek Turnaround (WSJ)
  • European markets subdued as Chinese data weighs (Reuters)
  • U.S. Oil Workers Strike Enters Second Day as Crude Prices Slide (BBG)
  • Oil prices rally above $55 as investors pile in (Reuters)
  • Obama Wants a New Tax on U.S. Companies' Overseas Profits (BBG)
  • If Trading Bonds Is Hard, Think About Pain When Rates Rise (BBG)
  • Julius Baer Braces for Swiss Franc Impact (WSJ)
  • Coke, Budweiser win as Super Bowl ad battle gets serious (Reuters)
  • Hedge Fund Brevan Howard’s Fortunes Blighted by Billions in Outflows and Management Row (WSJ)
  • AirAsia captain left seat before jet lost control (Reuters)
  • Fake FX Trader Handed Record Prison Term After FCA Probe (WSJ)
  • Want to Buy a Used German Power Plant? Shipping Is Included (BBG)
  • City of Ruin Remains After Islamic State Defeat in Kobani (WSJ)
  • Chevron Pulls Out of Poland Shale (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The cost of General Motors Co's victims-compensation fund isn't expected to exceed the $400 million to $600 million the auto maker set aside to pay those killed or injured on account of faulty ignition switches, but it will take weeks for the fund to sort through a late rush of claims filed before the deadline passed this weekend. (http://on.wsj.com/1CotA7v)

* President Barack Obama is making an opening bid on overhauling corporate taxes and linking it to boosting infrastructure spending, a move that could clear a rare path toward common ground in a deeply divided capital. (http://on.wsj.com/1KiRyQD)

* The U.S. government will begin releasing Medicare physician-payment records every year, cementing public access to how tens of billions of dollars are spent annually on everything from office visits to radiation therapy. (http://on.wsj.com/1D4d9fv)

* A top regulator is objecting to Dish Network Corp's claim on more than $3 billion in discounts aimed at small business in the government's auction of wireless licenses. (http://on.wsj.com/1zM0Zse)

* With its case against Standard & Poor's Ratings Services nearing the finish, the Justice Department has turned its attention to another credit-rating firm under fire for issuing rosy grades on mortgage deals in the buildup to the financial crisis. (http://on.wsj.com/1DmUdGx)

* The collapse of the oil market has dragged down prices across the energy sector. One exception is the price Morgan Stanley is seeking for its oil-trading and storage business, which could profit from the recent slide. (http://on.wsj.com/1zsqBsD)

* Hedge fund Standard General LP is in talks to serve as the lead bidder at a bankruptcy auction for struggling consumer-electronics retailer RadioShack Corp, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1z3gZ6U)

 

FT

In an agreement reached on late Sunday night, senior creditors are set to take control of insurance broker Towergate, in a restructuring exercise of its 1 billion pound ($1.51 billion) debt.

Britain's cash-strapped local municipal authorities are all set to launch a multibillion-pound municipal bond market. The first bond issue, likely in April, is expected to fetch 250 million-300 million pounds and annual issuance may go all the way up to 2 billion-3 billion pounds.

Dixons Carphone has reached an agreement with Hutchison Whampoa's 3 to use the UK mobile operator's network to offer customised Internet plans for the smart appliances sold in its stores.

Paul Evans, chairman of the Association of British Insurers has warned insurance companies on the race to gather and use 'big data' and to take "great care" ensuring that sections of society are not left vulnerable without any insurance cover.

 

NYT

* Fears that the new Greek government could be more radical than expected has caused a mini bank run in the last month, raising the question of whether the European Central Bank will come to the banks' aid. (http://nyti.ms/1z46BMh)

* On Friday, in an uncommon display of humility, Uber pledged to strengthen its user data privacy practices, acknowledging that "we haven't always gotten it right." The striking reversal in tone comes at a crucial time for Uber, which once somewhat prided itself on its antagonistic attitude. (http://nyti.ms/169rYA1)

* As part of a $1.37 billion settlement deal expected this week, Standard & Poor's has agreed to acknowledge that it never found evidence against a Justice Department lawsuit supporting its accusations of retaliation, people briefed on the matter said. (http://nyti.ms/1EYwXAf)

* The sex toy industry is banking on the hope that the "Fifty Shades of Grey" film will generate soaring sales, much the way the blockbuster erotic novel of the same name created thousands of new customers from the female readers who passed the book around their suburban culs-de-sac. (http://nyti.ms/1voo8zy)

* The game plan for the advertising blitz during Super Bowl XLIX was simple: Go straight for the heart. Many of the commercials during NBC's national broadcast of Sunday's game sought to tug at viewers' heart strings rather than make them burst out laughing. (http://nyti.ms/1tTrmd8)

* European cement makers Lafarge and Holcim agreed to sell assets to CRH Plc, an Irish manufacturer of building materials, for about $7.3 billion to help pave the way for their own merger. (http://nyti.ms/1LC8p4u)

* A clinical trial in Liberia of a drug to treat Ebola has been halted because of a sharp decline in the number of people infected with the virus, and studies in West Africa of other potential treatments are also facing problems finding patients. The developer of the drug, Chimerix, announced late Friday that it would no longer participate in the study. (http://nyti.ms/1EYBVNm)

 

China

PEOPLE'S DAILY

- China's 2015 rural policy, for which an outline was issued on Sunday, is likely to quicken the pace of the country's farm reforms, said an editorial in the newspaper, the ruling Communist Party of China's mouthpiece.

CHINA DAILY

- Turnout for the first major march, organised by the opposition camp in Hong Kong after the "Occupy" protest, was lower than expected as the government called for a rational, pragmatic and inclusive attitude to forge consensus for election reform.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- China's policy to keep the yuan relatively stable means the Chinese currency should have only limited room to depreciate despite its recent falls in line with global emerging market currencies, economists said.

SECURITIES TIMES

- The Shenzhen-Hong Kong connect, that would allow traders from the two cities to trade in the other's stock market, will be modelled after the Shanghai-Hong Kong connect, Wu Lijun, head the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, said during a recent visit to Hong Kong.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- A slew of companies have published their share issue prospectuses after the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Friday approved a new batch of 24 initial public offerings (IPOs) to be launched.

 

Britain

The Times

MERKEL REFUSES CALLS TO RELIEVE GREEK DEBTS

German chancellor Angela Merkel has flatly rejected calls to write off any more Greek debts as she increased tensions with Athens in a race to find a solution to deadlock over the country's bailout programme. (http://thetim.es/1zt4W1V)

AMERICANS LINE UP 2 BLN STG BID FOR AUTO TRADER

Private equity firm Hellman & Friedman is preparing a 2 billion pounds takeover bid for Auto Trader, Britain's biggest used-car marketplace. (http://thetim.es/16gIxuS)

CRH PAVES THE WAY TO BUY LAFARGE TARMAC

Irish building materials company CRH Plc is to take control of Lafarge Tarmac as part of a 6.5 billion euros ($7.36 billion) deal for the cast-offs of the cement mega-merger between Lafarge and Holcim. (http://thetim.es/1yqPhgK)

SOUTHEAST TO FOOT BILL FOR CROSSRAIL 2

Businesses and property owners in Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Surrey and Hampshire could be forced into helping to fund London's proposed Crossrail 2 line, the cost of which is expected to escalate to 27 billion pounds. (http://thetim.es/1CnWGnv)

The Guardian

SWISS CENTRAL BANK NOW HAS 'UNOFFICIAL EURO TARGET'

The Swiss National Bank, which last month scrapped the cap it had imposed on the value of the franc, is unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05 to 1.10 Swiss francs per euro, a Swiss newspaper reported on Sunday. (http://bit.ly/162fxGK)

BP TO FOLLOW SHELL IN CUTTING SPENDING

BP Plc will on Tuesday unveil plans to slash billions of pounds off its capital spending programme in a bid to counter the impact of plunging oil prices and a 40 percent fall in its fourth quarter profits. (http://bit.ly/1EYfszP)

GREEK MINISTER TO MEET GEORGE OSBORNE ABOUT PROPOSED DEBT DEAL

Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis will meet Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne on Monday on his whistle stop tour of Europe, as he attempts to win support for a renegotiated debt deal, amid fears that protracted talks will sap confidence and liquidity from the Greek economy. (http://bit.ly/16hD1Z8)

The Telegraph

BRITAIN NETS 30 BLN STG AS BORROWING COSTS FALL THAT COULD FUND PRE-ELECTION GIVEAWAYS

Plummeting borrowing costs will cut the UK debt interest bill by more than 30 billion pounds ($45.24 billion) by 2019, giving George Osborne more scope to fund pre-election giveaways or to relax a massive squeeze on the state. Osborne can afford to relax spending squeeze or fund pre-election giveaways, as borrowing costs fall, new calculations show. (http://bit.ly/1zs5wyu)

CROATIA WRITES OFF DEBTS FOR POOREST CITIZENS

Thousands of Croats will see their debts written-off on Monday as part of an attempt to boost the economy by helping households to regain access to basic facilities including bank accounts. The scheme, which has been dubbed "fresh start," will see the debts of around 60,000 citizens erased by banks, telecoms and utilities operators as part of a deal with the government. (http://bit.ly/1ypyY3T)

FREE BANK ACCOUNTS UNSUSTAINABLE, SAYS PwC

Free bank accounts are "unsustainable" despite being widely expected in the UK, according to a report that claims consumers must begin paying for services if they are to be treated fairly. Research from PwC found that although most people understand that they are paying for bank accounts through the back door, the majority would be likely to desert their bank if they began to be charged up front. Free-if-in-credit current accounts are near-ubiquitous in the UK, unlike many countries. However, senior industry figures have said it harms consumers, and the issue is under the competition regulator's spotlight. (http://bit.ly/1EYmox2)

Sky News

EX-BP BOSS HAYWARD LURES MONAGHAN TO GENEL

Oil company Genel Energy Plc led by Tony Hayward, the former boss of BP Plc, is poised to announce a shake-up of its executive team four years after it was founded. The company will issue a statement on Monday in which it will say that Julian Metherell is to step down as its chief financial officer. He will be replaced by Ben Monaghan, who is understood to have resigned from his role leading JPMorgan Chase & Co 's European energy business on Friday, and a source close to the bank said that he had done so in order to join Genel. (http://bit.ly/1Duc271)

The Independent

LGBT EMPLOYEES WHO FEEL UNABLE TO COME OUT AT WORK MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE THEIR JOBS - AND COST BUSINESS MILLIONS

Businesses are squandering millions replacing lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) employees who quit after not feeling comfortable enough to "come out" at work. A report, LGBT2020, to be published tomorrow, suggests that the UK economy could save 678 million pounds a year if businesses better implemented "diversity and inclusion" policies to encourage LGBT employees to be themselves. (http://ind.pn/1692rHg)

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Personal income for December at 8:30--consensus up 0.3%
Consumer spending for December at 8:30--consensus down 0.2%
Market PMI for January at 9:45--consensus 54.0
ISM manufacturing index for January  at 10:00--consensus 54.5
Construction spending for December at 10:00--consensus up 0.6%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Cameron (CAM) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Cedar Fair (FUN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Delhaize (DEG) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
Diamond Foods (DMND) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
EnLink Midstream (ENLK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Government Properties (GOV) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
MeadWestvaco (MWV) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
NuStar Energy (NS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
NuStar GP Holdings (NSH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
RockTenn (RKT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital

Downgrades

ACE Limited (ACE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Ahold (AHONY) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies
Airbus (EADSY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
American Midstream (AMID) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
DCP Midstream (DPM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Enable Midstream (ENBL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
LabCorp (LH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Ophthotech (OPHT) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Randgold (GOLD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Summit Midstream (SMLP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
USA Compression (USAC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Werner (WERN) downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna
Yara (YARIY) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

Initiations

Porsche (POAHY) assumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Southcross Energy Partners (SXE) reinstated with an Underweight at Barclays
Western Gas Equity (WGP) reinstated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Western Gas Partners (WES) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays

COMPANY NEWS

BGC Partners (BGCP) said GFI Group (GFIG) shareholders reject CME Group (CME) merger proposal
CRH (CRH) acquires assets from Lafarge (LFRGY), Holcim (HCMLY) for EUR6.5B
Intel (INTC) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Lantiq, a supplier of broadband access and home networking technologies
The United Steelworkers Union called for a work stoppage at the following U.S. refineries: LyondellBasell (LYB) in Houston, TX; Marathon (MRO ) Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas City, TX; Marathon Houston Green Cogeneration facility, Texas City, TX; Marathon Refinery, Catlettsburg, Ky; Shell (RDS.A) Deer Park Refinery, Deer Park, TX; Shell Deer Park Chemical Plant, Deer Park, TX; Tesoro (TSO) Anacortes Refinery, Anacortes, Wash.; Tesoro Martinez Refinery, Martinez, Calif.; and Tesoro Carson Refinery, Carson, Calif
GNC Holdings (GNC) raised its quarterly dividend 12.5% to 18c per share
Chimerix (CMRX) to cease further participation in studies of brincidofovir for Ebola

EARNINGS

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Talmer Bancorp  (TLMR)

Bank of Commerce Holdings (BOCH) reports Q4 EPS 12c, one estimate 11c

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Panasonic (PCRFY) to stop TV manufacturing in China, WSJ reports
S&P (MHFI) to avoid admission of fraud, NY Times reports
Ford (F) CFO says 2015 prospects in Russia do not 'look good,' Reuters reports
Moody's (MCO) probed by DoJ for mortgage ratings before financial crisis, WSJ reports
Standard General may be lead bidder in RadioShack (RSH) bankruptcy auction, WSJ reports
AOL's (AOL) head of AOL Platforms to become president of company, Re/code reports
Google's (GOOG) Nest loses Dropcam CEO, VP of technology, The Verge reports
Wendy's (WEN) investors should take profits, Barron's says
AMD (AMD) could rise 75%, Barron's says
Delphi Automotive (DLPH) shares could climb 20%, Barron's says


Frontrunning: February 3

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  • RBA cuts interest rates to record low of 2.25% (SMH)
  • RBI keeps rates on hold (Reuters), India allows banks flexibility on big projects to reboot growth (Reuters)
  • BP slashes capital spending by 20% (FT)
  • Greek Retreat on Writedown May Move Fight to Spending (BBG)
  • Rosneft accounting move helps BP beat profit forecast (Reuters)
  • Amazon in Talks to Buy Some of RadioShack's Stores (BBG)
  • Behind Obama's budget proposals, a gloomy view of the future (Reuters)
  • How the Justice Department, S&P Came to Terms (WSJ)
  • Staples, Office Depot in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)
  • Mac McQuown Is Reinventing the Corporate Bond (BBG)
  • Iran sweetens oil contracts to counter sanctions and price plunge (Reuters)
  • FCC to Propose Strong ‘Net Neutrality’ Rules (WSJ)
  • Offices Minus Tenants Rise Beyond Manhattan (BBG)
  • Cash-Starved Oil Producers Trade Treasured Pipelines for Money (BBG)
  • Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor (BBG)
  • Chinese Banks in Talks to Take Part in Gold Fix Replacement (BBG)

 

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* A record settlement expected Tuesday between the Justice Department and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services came together over two days in mid-January when the two sides agreed to move past a feud triggered by a surprise downgrade of U.S. debt, according to people familiar with the talks. (http://on.wsj.com/1CrH7uT)

* Staples Inc and Office Depot Inc are in advanced talks to combine, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be a major step toward consolidating the retail market for pens, paper and other office supplies. (http://on.wsj.com/1EC6niR)

* President Barack Obama called for sweeping tax increases Monday in a budget proposal that dropped any quest for fiscal grand bargains with Congress, but also laid out narrower domestic priorities that may appeal to Republicans. (http://on.wsj.com/1zAU8Af)

* Piracy off Somali has spawned floating armories to cache weapons for security companies and ferry their guns and guards to vessels needing protection. (http://on.wsj.com/1tZhsH8)

* The Federal Communications Commission is about to fundamentally change the way it oversees high-speed Internet service, proposing to regulate it as a public utility. (http://on.wsj.com/16coRay)

* Investors are returning to emerging markets, upending predictions that investments in developing nations were headed for a fresh drubbing. (http://on.wsj.com/1CUwj77)

* Verizon Communications Inc is close to selling a package of assets including cellphone towers and parts of its wireline business, a group of deals whose value could top $15 billion, people familiar with the matter said. (http://on.wsj.com/1EC8xPm)

* Exxon Mobil Corp said its fourth-quarter earnings dropped 21 percent, hurt by lower commodity prices, while the biggest U.S. energy company also unveiled plans to slash its buyback program. (http://on.wsj.com/1D86jFZ)

* Walt Disney Co's $5.5 billion theme park in Shanghai, previously set to open by the end of this year, will instead open in the first half of 2016, people close to the project said. (http://on.wsj.com/1HOKEH6)

* Some 720 oil-industry workers in Texas, including 330 in the oil and gas division of General Electric Co, are losing their jobs as U.S. crude prices languish below $50 a barrel. (http://on.wsj.com/1zwKEEG)

* Slower global growth is starting to weigh on demand for American-made goods, casting a cloud over the U.S. manufacturing sector. While the Institute for Supply Management's overall index shows slowing growth, the reading on exports is in contractionary territory. (http://on.wsj.com/1x2iZHa)

* Sysco Corp's talks with antitrust regulators over its planned acquisition of U.S. Foods have reached a standstill as the company announced an agreement to divest far more in assets than originally planned. (http://on.wsj.com/1z8Tutk)

* Tronox Ltd is nearing a deal to buy a soda-ash business from rival chemical company FMC Corp for more than $1.5 billion, people familiar with the matter said. (http://on.wsj.com/1EC2cDH)

* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's wholesale marketplace is joining with U.S. peer-to-peer online lending company Lending Club to provide sales financing to small U.S. businesses buying from Chinese suppliers. (http://on.wsj.com/1uSKkMg)

 

FT

U.S. Department of Justice has communicated to Rupert Murdoch-owned News Corp that it won't face prosecution in the country for phone hacking charges.

Super Bowl became the most watched television programme in U.S. history garnering more than 114.4 million viewers as people tuned in to watch the New England Patriots defeat Seattle Seahawks to seal their first win in a decade.

Peer-to-peer lender SoFi, which specialises in student loans, raised $200 million in a new funding round that values the four-year-old startup at $1.3 billion.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC on Tuesday will brief on plans to dismantle its multi-billion dollar project in the North Sea-Brent oilfield, that may lead to closure of other projects after the plunge in global crude prices.

 

NYT

* A research group says that by improving educational performance, the United States could increase its gross domestic product over the next 35 years. (http://nyti.ms/1yywccw)

* No payment offers have been rejected so far in General Motors' effort to avoid the image-damaging litigation over defective ignition switches. (http://nyti.ms/1LGDZ0T)

* The chief executive of Ally Financial, the former lending arm of General Motors, has stepped down from his post. Michael Carpenter has headed Ally since 2009, not long after it was rescued by federal taxpayers as part of a broad bailout of the nation's ailing auto industry. (http://nyti.ms/1BYIDlE)

* An overflow crowd of government regulators spent a day last month ticking off their demands before eventually negotiating a $1.37 billion settlement of an array of lawsuits against S&P. (http://nyti.ms/1BYINcy)

* Scores of debt-laden oil companies face struggles that could lead to layoffs and losses for banks and investors. At the same time, new fortunes stand to be made. (http://nyti.ms/1x2pKsw)

* Stephen Schwarzman, the billionaire co-founder of the Blackstone Group, has a sobering message for any junior financiers hoping to emulate his success: Think twice. Schwarzman said the temptation to start a new financial firm could disguise the considerable risk of failure and the damaging consequences failure brings. (http://nyti.ms/1KmyfGi)

* The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission this week is widely expected to propose regulating Internet service like a public utility, a move certain to unleash another round of intense debate and lobbying about how to ensure so-called net neutrality, or an open Internet. (http://nyti.ms/1tZllLW)

* The Justice Department will not prosecute Rupert Murdoch's News Corp or 21st Century Fox over voice mail interceptions and payments to public officials, actions done by their journalists in London, the companies said on Monday. (http://nyti.ms/1BYIQFg)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Toronto Mayor John Tory wants the city to be "meaningfully consulted" before any decisions are made about the sale of surplus schools by the Toronto District School Board. Tory says opinion appears to be split between those that never want a school sold, and those that want every property sold that does not meet provincial enrolment numbers. (http://bit.ly/16cYMbt)

** Chorus Aviation Inc has placed an order for new planes after finalizing a contract with Air Canada that cuts costs and strengthens the partners' ability to compete with WestJet Encore. (http://bit.ly/1uRZAJg)

** The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan bought PODS Inc, a portable moving and storage company, from Bahrain-based Arcapita Bank BSC for more than C$1 billion ($797.58 million). (http://bit.ly/1K6Uguv)

NATIONAL POST

** Canada's drug-price regulator has taken the rare step of calling a hearing into what is considered the world's most expensive prescription medicine, accusing its manufacturer of exceeding the permissible price cap. The yearly cost per patient of as much as C$700,000 is even more than the manufacturer, Alexion Pharmaceutical, charges in the United States, which typically has the steepest prices globally, says the Patented Medicines Price Review Board. (http://bit.ly/1zChp4V)

** Liquidation sales at Target's Canadian stores could begin as early as Thursday. Target Canada will seek court approval on Wednesday to allow a group of liquidation companies to start to sell off the contents of its Canadian stores. (http://bit.ly/1HPhmI8)

** Nearly one-in-five Canadian oil and gas companies says it may have to cut staff as commodity prices slide, according to a survey published Monday by Mercer LLC, a human resource consultancy. One-in-four said they won't be "buying" as much new talent from outside their organization, while one in six plans to freeze or cut compensation. A third of the companies said it was "too early to tell" whether the price decline will impact their operations. (http://bit.ly/1CVmkys)

 

China

PEOPLE'S DAILY

- Plagiarism in WeChat would kill innovation and destroy the mobile, text and voice messaging communication service developed by Tencent, People's Daily said in an editorial.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- China will soon launch three new free trade zones, in Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong, and expand the Shanghai free trade zone, the newspaper said, citing unidentified sources.

- Analysts expect China's listed banks to post net profit growth of around 8 percent, with bad loan ratios trending higher.

- BYD Co Ltd has obtained regulatory approval to set up an auto finance unit, the company said.

SECURITIES TIMES

- Shanghai has raised the bar for buyers of new energy vehicles to obtain free car plates, requiring that applicants must own fixed parking lots and charging poles, according to dealers.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- Of the 145 central government-owned companies in China that have so far published preliminary earnings statements, more than 30 are expected to make a loss in 2014, the newspaper said, citing data it compiled.

 

Britain

The Times

GREECE'S FINANCE MINISTER HOLDS OUT FOR ECB LIFELINE

Greece's finance minister has insisted that Athens expects the European Central Bank to maintain a funding lifeline while the week-old Syriza government negotiates new bailout terms. (http://thetim.es/1F0zt98)

The Guardian

GREECE DEBT STANDOFF: GEORGE OSBORNE URGES ATHENS AND BRUSSELS TO STRIKE DEAL

George Osborne, has warned that the standoff between Greece and the eurozone over the country's debt is "the greatest risk to the global economy" after meeting the new Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. "We had a constructive discussion, and it is clear that the standoff between Greece and the eurozone is the greatest risk to the global economy," Osborne said. "I urge the Greek finance minister to act responsibly but it's also important that the eurozone has a better plan for jobs and growth. (http://bit.ly/1zxfqij)

UK GOVERNMENT FEARED TERRORISTS WOULD WEAPONISE EBOLA

British military experts were asked to draw up guidance at the height of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa late last year on the feasibility and potential impact of terrorists "weaponising" the virus. (http://bit.ly/1HOC9vB)

AER LINGUS OFFERED HEATHROW SLOTS GUARANTEES BY BRITISH AIRWAYS' OWNER

British Airways' parent company International Airlines Group has stepped up its pursuit of Aer Lingus Group Plc by offering to make legally binding commitments to preserve the Irish carrier's brand and presence at Heathrow, hoping to assuage government fears in Dublin. IAG last week made an improved 1.1 billion pound ($1.65 billion) bid for Aer Lingus but the Irish government, which owns a 25 percent stake, had been resisting a sale without guarantees over future connectivity. (http://bit.ly/16a0wCO)

The Telegraph

GOOGLE 'TO TAKE ON UBER WITH DRIVERLESS CARS'

Google Inc is looking to take on Uber in the car-sharing market by launching a service using its driverless vehicles, according to reports. Executives at Uber, which allows customers to book taxis via its app, have seen screenshots of a similar Google program that the U.S. search giant's employees are using, Bloomberg reported. (http://bit.ly/1vpsRRj)

TOWRY AGREES 97 MLN STG TAKEOVER OF ASHCOURT ROWAN

Private-equity backed advisory firm Towry Finance has agreed a 97 million pound takeover of wealth manager Ashcourt Rowan. The two companies said that the deal will create a private wealth firm with 11 billion pounds of assets under management and revenues of 138 million pound. (http://bit.ly/1x0nbqU)

Sky News

SANTANDER UK TO TAKE 20 MLN STG PPI TOP-UP CHARGE

Santander UK will this week provide fresh evidence that the banking sector's biggest mis-selling scandal is failing to abate when it makes a further provision for consumer compensation. The bank, which is the UK's fifth-biggest high street lender, is expected to say alongside its full-year results on Tuesday that it is taking a charge in the low tens of millions of pounds for PPI mis-selling. (http://bit.ly/1K46R1u)

LEIGHTON IN TALKS TO BECOME CO-OP CHAIRMAN

Allan Leighton is in talks to become the first independent chairman of the Co-operative Group Ltd in a move that would herald a crucial stage in the mutual's efforts to reinvent itself after two years of crisis. (http://bit.ly/1zNXcL2)

The Independent

SPOTIFY CANCELS LAUNCH IN RUSSIA FOR THE 'FORESEEABLE FUTURE'

Music-streaming service Spotify has cancelled its launch in Russia - amid continuing unrest in the country. According to the RBC news agency, Alexander Kubaneishvili, a former Google executive who was to lead Spotify's Russian division, is leaving the Swedish company. "I regret to inform you that Spotify refused to launch in Russia in the foreseeable future. There are several reasons - the economic crisis, the political situation, the new laws governing the internet," Kubaneishvili said. (http://ind.pn/1yv3rxl)

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
ISM New York for January at 9:45--prior 70.8
Factory orders for December at 10:00--consensus down 2.4%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Advent (ADVS) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
Anadarko (APC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Bank of Ireland (IRE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Blackhawk (HAWK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
CRH (CRH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale
Concho Resources (CXO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Cytec Industries (CYT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
EMC (EMC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Fair Value from Sell at CRT Capital
Limelight Networks (LLNW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Manpower (MAN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Matador (MTDR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Noble Energy (NBL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
PDC Energy (PDCE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
SM Energy (SM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
SS&C (SSNC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Synergy Resources (SYRG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Sysco (SYY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Tenet (THC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at RW Baird
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel

Downgrades

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Suisse
DuPont Fabros (DFT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI
Ecopetrol (EC) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Freeport McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
GeoPark (GPRK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Gran Tierra (GTE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
GulfMark Offshore (GLF) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Michael Kors (KORS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Nordic American Offshore (NAO) downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Stratasys (SSYS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Brean Capital
Stratasys (SSYS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Validus (VR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Waste Management (WM) downgraded to In-Line from Outperform at Imperial Capital
Xilinx (XLNX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura

Initiations

A.O. Smith (AOS) initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc
Aaon (aaon) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Albemarle (ALB) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Chemtura  (CHMT) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Chimerix (CMRX) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
DSP Group (DSPG) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
FMC Corporation (FMC) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Global Partners (GLP) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
Tesoro Logistics (TLLP) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
Transmontaigne Partners (TLP) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
TriVascular (TRIV) initiated with a Buy at BTIG
Unum Group (UNM) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
W.R. Grace (GRA) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Wix.com (WIX) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James

COMPANY NEWS

21st Century (FOXA) said DOJ declines to prosecute in 'hacking' investigation
SS&C (SSNC) to acquire Advent Software (ADVS) for $44.25 per share, or $2.7B in cash
Stratasys (SSYS) still sees annual organic revenue growth of at least 25%
RadioShack (RSH) disclosed in a filing that on January 27, the company received a notice of default from the SCP Agent asserting that an event of default has occurred and is continuing under the SCP Credit Agreement because the company has not deposited all proceeds that it has received from the applicable residual accounts into the Residual Account Deposit Account
United Technologies (UTX) raised its quarterly dividend 8.5% to 64c from 59c per share
BGC Partners (BGCP): Holders should disregard GFI Group (GFIG) claim to explore alternatives (CME)

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:

Eaton (ETN), Santander Consumer (SC), Independent Bank (IBTX), Sensata (ST), Centene (CNC), Headwaters (HW), American Financial Group (AFG), Cliffs Natural (CLF), Heritage Oaks (HEOP), Reinsurance Group (RGA), Fabrinet (FN), Advanced Energy (AEIS), Hartford Financial (HIG), Integrated Device (IDTI), Luminex (LMNX), Nanometrics (NANO), XL Group (XL), M/A-COM (MTSI), Rudolph Technologies (RTEC), MTS Systems (MTSC), Limelight Networks (LLNW)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:

Hill-Rom (HRC), Nordic American Offshore (NAO), Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP), BP (BP), Quotient (QTNT), MDU Resources (MDU), Black Hills (BKH), Rent-A-Center (RCII), Artisan Partners (APAM), Anadarko (APC)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:

Wendy's (WEN), Aetna (AET), Advent (ADVS), Owens-Illinois (OI), Torchmark (TMK)

Stratasys (SSYS) sees FY14 EPS $1.97-$2.03, consensus $2.25, sees FY14 revenue $748M-$750M, consensus $763.63M. Sees FY15 EPS $2.07-$2.24, consensus $2.91, sees FY15 revenue $940M-$960M, consensus $1.01B
Aetna (AET) raises FY15 EPS to at least $7.00 from $6.90, consensus $7.16
Hill-Rom (HRC) sees Q2 adjusted EPS 57c-60c, consensus 62c, sees FY15 adjusted EPS $2.44-$2.50, consensus $2.49
Eaton (ETN) sees Q1 EPS 95c-$1.05, consensus $1.10, sees FY15 EPS $4.75-$5.05, consensus $4.97

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Google (GOOG) prepares Uber-like service, Bloomberg reports
Staples (SPLS) in “advanced talks” to merge with Office Depot (ODP), WSJ reports
NYSE to suspend trading in RadioShack (RSH) immediately, begin delisting, DJ says
Amazon (AMZN) considers buying some RadioShack (RSH) retail stores, Bloomberg reports (S)
Shell (RDS.A) to dismantle North Sea Brent oil field, Financial Times reports
Apple iPhone (AAPL) shipments to top 50M units in Q1, DigiTimes reports

SYNDICATE

BioTime (BTX) files $100M mixed securities shelf
Bonanza Creek (BCEI) files to sell 4M shares of common stock
Booz Allen (BAH) files to sell 12M shares of Class A common stock for holders
Dave & Busters (PLAY) files to sell 6M shares of common stock for holders
India Globalization Capital (IGC) files $20M mixed securities shelf
M/A-COM (MTSI) files to sell 6.5M shares of common stock
Marine Harvest (MHG) files automatic mixed securities shelf
PBF Energy (PBF) files to sell 3.8M shares of common stock for holders
Palatin Tech (PTN) files to sell 27.67M shares of common stock for holders
Pattern Energy (PEGI) files to sell $350M of Class A common stock
Sabre (SABR) files to sell 20M shares of common stock for holders
ServiceMaster (SERV) files to sell 25M shares for stockholders
Ziopharm (ZIOP) files to sell $75M of common stock

S&P Downgrades Numerous European Banks, Warns Deutsche Bank May Be Next

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Just hours after apparently settling its suit with the USA (not at all retaliation for downgrading them), S&P has taken the big red marker out on a slew of European banks:

  • Downgrades: Credit Suisse, Barclays, Lloyds, Bank of Scotland, RBS, HSBC, and Ulster Bank
  • On Watch Negative: Raiffeisen Zentralbank, MBank, Unicredit, Commerzbank, and Deutsche Bank

The driver of the shift in perspective is the apparent removal of the 'bailout put', as the prospect of "extraordinary government support" appeared less likely under recently passed bail-in legislation.

  • *S&P TAKES VARIOUS RATING ACTIONS ON SOME EUROPEAN BANKS
  • *S&P: ACTIONS REFLECT EU BANK RECOVERY & RESOLUTION DIRECTIVE
  • *S&P MAY REMOVE SYSTEMIC SUPPORT NOTCHES IN SOME CASES IN REVIEW

Downgrades

  • *RBS GROUP PLC CUT TO BBB- FROM BBB+ BY S&P, OTLK TO STABLE
  • *LLOYDS BANKING GROUP CUT TO BBB FROM A- BY S&P, OUTLOOK TO POS
  • *S&P: ULSTER BANK TO BBB+/WATCH NEG FROM BBB+/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *S&P: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC TO A/STABLE FROM A+/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *S&P: STANDARD CHARTERED PLC TO A-/STABLE FROM A/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *BARCLAYS PLC CUT TO BBB FROM A- BY S&P, OTLK STABLE
  • *S&P: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC TO BBB-/STABLE FROM BBB+/
  • *S&P: CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG TO BBB+/STABLE FROM A-/NEGATIVE

Outlook Neg:

  • *RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK OESTERREICH AG MAY BE CUT BY S&P
  • *S&P: COMMERZBANK AG TO A-/WATCH NEG FROM A-/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *S&P: COMMERZBANK AG MAY BE CUT
  • *S&P: NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY TO A/WATCH NEG FROM A/NEGATIVE
  • *NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY MAY BE CUT BY S&P
  • *S&P: MBANK TO BBB+/WATCH NEG FROM BBB+/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *MBANK MAY BE CUT BY S&P
  • *S&P: DEUTSCHE BANK AG TO A/WATCH NEG FROM A/NEGATIVE - FOR
  • *DEUTSCHE BANK AG MAY BE CUT BY S&P
  • *S&P: UNICREDIT BANK AG TO A-/WATCH NEG FROM A-/NEGATIVE - FOR

 

We Officially Declare The End Of RadioShack LBO Rumors

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For anyone who has traded RadioShack's bonds or stocks over the last decade or so, the constant threat of an LBO has been the bane of any fundamental analysis as one Credit Suisse memorably described it as "a company in a virtual state of constant collapse." It appears, with multiple default notices this week and the news that NYSE will suspend/delist trading in the ever-on-the-block company, that the 'LBO rumor' threat is over. With several firms (Sprint, Sanpower, and Amazon) mulling post-bankruptcy purchases, the concept of a pre-petition savior appears dead in the water...

 

It's been a wild ride for stocks...

*  *  *

“Once again, people are speculating that RadioShack is the subject of an LBO”

– Reuters, December 2006

“In a recent report, Deutsche Bank Securities compiled a list of 25 companies whose options have been targeted by buyout speculators. It includes….RadioShack Corp.”

– Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2007

“In recent weeks, RadioShack has been the target of lots of speculation….A week ago, the stock shot up….on rumors about a private equity buyout…

– Nightly Business Report March 10, 2010

RadioShack: Could This Finally Be the Year for a Buyout?

- WSJ, March 26, 2010

And now...

RadioShack Trading Suspended at NYSE

- Bloomberg, Feb 2, 2015

*  *  *

They think it's all over...

 

Well it is now.

  • *NYSE TO SUSPEND TRADING IMMEDIATELY IN RADIOSHACK CORP. AND
  • *NYSE TAKING ACTION TO DELIST THE COMMON STOCK OF RADIOSHACK
  • *RADIOSHACK SAID TO PLAN FOR BANKRUPTCY FILING TOMORROW: WSJ

Frontrunning: February 4

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  • Arab World Unites to Condemn ‘Barbaric’ Death of Jordanian Pilot (BBG)
  • Jordan hangs two Iraqi militants in response to pilot's death (Reuters)
  • As Oil Prices Climb, Some Harbor Doubts (WSJ)
  • Taiwan plane cartwheels into river after take-off, killing at least 19 (Reuters)
  • Seven dead as commuter train hits car near New York City (Reuters)
  • Apollo’s 600% Profit on Oil Company Leaves Rivals Behind (BBG)
  • Greece's rock-star finance minister Yanis Varoufakis defies ECB's drachma threats  (Telegraph)
  • Greek Signals of Compromise Send Markets Soaring (WSJ)
  • Greece has started debt-swap talks with IMF, minister tells paper (Reuters)
  • Manhattan Bargain: Condos for Less Than $3 Million (BBG)
  • World Bank Probes $1 Billion China Loan (WSJ)
  • Chinese Retailers Play Poker in Empty Malls as Shoppers Go Online (BBG)
  • Staples to Buy Office Depot in Deal Valued at $6.3 Billion (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* As Greece's new ministers hopscotch across Europe, hopes grow of a negotiated agreement between Athens and its creditors. (http://on.wsj.com/1z92REy)

* At least seven people were killed and others were injured Tuesday evening when a Metro-North Railroad train full of passengers crashed into a car in Valhalla, in Westchester County, authorities said. (http://on.wsj.com/1EEZxJy)

* Crude prices rose to the highest level this year amid signs a global supply glut could ease, but some investors and analysts said the worst of the oil rout may not be over. (http://on.wsj.com/1zzGP1r)

* The World Bank has launched an investigation into whether its chief financial officer and other top brass mishandled a $1 billion Chinese loan to the bank's poverty fund. (http://on.wsj.com/1z93ZYO)

* The United States has largely ended its financial-system rescue program and exited from the lion's share of its investments, yet the watchdog created to oversee the Troubled Asset Relief Program continues to grow. (http://on.wsj.com/1yET9La)

* BP joined a raft of oil companies, big and small, slashing their budgets for finding and tapping new sources of crude, offering a pessimistic outlook on a day it reported a net loss for the latest financial quarter. (http://on.wsj.com/1F4bEgu)

* Federal health regulators have approved Pfizer Inc's Ibrance to treat advanced breast cancer. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday granted Ibrance accelerated approval, a type of temporary approval for diseases that don't have viable treatment options based on less clinical data than required for traditional drug approvals. (http://on.wsj.com/1u5CxQ1)

 

FT

U.S. regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering naming BP PLC and its entities in an enforcement action alleging they broke anti-fraud and reporting rules while using oil pipelines in Canada, the company said in its quarterly results.

Walt Disney's Chief Executive Bob Iger said the company is considering new streaming services for some of its popular content. The service would target some 12 million people who subscribe to broadband Internet service but not to cable television.

U.S. regulatory authorities are stepping up their focus on Moody's probing allegations that the agency inflated ratings on mortgage derivatives to win business in the run-up to the financial crisis, after rival S&P agreed to settle similar allegations by paying $1.375 billion.

Twitter has formed partnerships with magazine app Flipboard and Yahoo Japan to display promoted tweets on their sites, as it tries to convince investors that it can generate revenue even outside its own user base.

 

NYT

* Alexis Tsipras, the newly elected prime minister of Greece, and his finance minister are making fashion statements as they visit European capitals to lobby for relief from the country's bailout debt. (http://nyti.ms/16fKff6)

* Across the Middle East and much of the developing world, government subsidies make energy cheap and encourage consumption. But governments around the world are beginning to take advantage of plummeting oil and natural gas prices by slashing the subsidies. (http://nyti.ms/1DE5MJP)

* Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices. (http://nyti.ms/1DcdgWr)

* A payout of $1.37 billion will settle an array of government lawsuits that accused Standard & Poor's of inflating the ratings of subprime mortgage investments, but does not represent closure for the broader ratings business. (http://nyti.ms/1zzH1xH)

* The prolonged takeover battle for the GFI Group Inc , a New York brokerage firm and clearinghouse, has been littered with missteps by Michael Gooch, its founder and executive chairman, raising the question of why supposedly intelligent leaders time and again do dumb things when they sell their companies. (http://nyti.ms/1zQZh95)

* The decision by Green Dot Corp to stop selling MoneyPak, its popular prepaid card, will take a bite out of the company's projected revenue and bottom line this year, and that has taken a toll on the company's share price over the last several days. (http://nyti.ms/16waQFL)

* Macy Inc is planning a bit of a makeover, announcing on Tuesday that it had agreed to buy the beauty and spa chain Bluemercury for $210 million, a move that could help broaden the department store's customer base. (http://nyti.ms/1CujamH)

* J. M. Smucker Co announced on Tuesday that it would buy Big Heart Pet Brands, the pet food company once known as Del Monte, from its private equity owners for about $5.8 billion, including debt, in a bid to expand into a fast-growing $21 billion business. (http://nyti.ms/1EF2F8h)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Major landlords of Target Canada have been battling with the U.S. discounter over how it will conduct its liquidation sales, which could steal business from their other mall tenants. (http://bit.ly/1xeDkcy)

** Gasoline prices have been creeping up across Canada and analysts say more increases are likely. But it's still a bargain compared with last year. According to price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com, the national average for a litre of regular was about 93 Canadian cents, an increase of 3.6 Canadian cents over the past week. (http://bit.ly/1xeDq3X)

** The federal government of Canada will delay parole eligibility for a decade or more beyond the current 25 years for some murderers, backing off a plan to make life truly mean life in prison by denying some convicted killers any hope of parole. (http://bit.ly/1EFDr9z)

NATIONAL POST

** Calgary-based Nexen Energy ULC is reviewing its "organizational requirements" after its Chinese parent, CNOOC Ltd, announced deep investment cuts in response to the crash in oil prices. (http://bit.ly/1ArDR1U)

** WestJet Airlines Ltd expects its fuel costs to fall by as much as 30 percent in the first quarter but travellers won't see a penny of that unless the airline experiences a sudden drop in demand, executives said on Tuesday. (http://bit.ly/1vr31wo)

** Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird thanked his "friend and mentor" Stephen Harper as he confirmed he is quitting politics in the House of Commons on Tuesday. The prime minister gave him a big hug but probably felt like putting his foreign affairs minister in a headlock. (http://bit.ly/1DdcxEk)

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- The Shanghai Stock Exchange said on Tuesday that each investor can hold an option premium of maximum 20 positions while the total holding should be less than 50 positions in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading.

- Seventy-one brokerages and 10 futures companies have received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 50 ETF options trading business, said Nie Yan, general manager at China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp Ltd in Shanghai.

SECURITIES TIMES

- China's deficit in its capital and financial account in the fourth quarter of 2014 was at $91.2 billion, the highest since 1998, data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed on Tuesday.

CHINA DAILY

- China will strengthen research into genetically modified crops in order to prevent foreign products from "dominating China", said an official at the Central Rural Work Leading Group.

SHANGHAI DAILY

- Chinese courier firms plan a surcharge for packages sent during the Chinese New Year between Feb. 18 and 24, given the labour shortage during the holiday, the newspaper reported.

- Shanghai plans to increase its outbound direct investment to $15 billion compared with $12.3 billion last year, the city's commission of commerce said on Tuesday.

 

Britain

The Times

TESCO TO PAY 2.1 MLN STG TO FORMER CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Tesco Plc has been forced pay a total of 2.1 million pounds to its former chief executive and chief financial officer after admitting that it had no legal grounds to continue withholding the money from them. Britain's largest supermarket chain had announced in October that it was suspending payments owed to Philip Clarke, who was forced out last summer, and Laurie McIlwee, his finance chief who departed a few months earlier, amid an investigation into a 263 million pound accounting scandal at the retailer. (http://thetim.es/1CXlOAf)

The Guardian

GREECE FINANCE MINISTER'S SOOTHING COMMENTS RAISE HOPES AND IMPRESS MARKETS

Hopes for a deal over Greece's 315 billion euros ($361.05 billion) debt buoyed markets on Tuesday as new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis stepped up his efforts to get the backing of the country's creditors. Varoufakis, the Marxist economist appointed to the post after last week's election, will meet the head of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and Mario Draghi, who is the head of the European Central Bank on Wednesday, following talks with his financial counterparts in France, Italy and the UK. (http://bit.ly/1DC2gzK)

SPORTS DIRECT FACES MULTIMILLION-POUND CLAIM FROM ZERO-HOURS CONTRACT WORKERS

Sports Direct International Plc is facing a claim for millions of pounds from nearly 300 workers excluded from the retailer's generous bonus scheme because they were on zero-hours contracts. The employees were excluded from a bonus scheme that paid out about 160 million pounds worth of shares to 2,000 "permanent" workers in 2013. (http://bit.ly/1x8fkrk)

The Telegraph

RBS, BARCLAYS AND LLOYDS DOWNGRADED OVER FEARS GOVERNMENT WILL NOT HELP THEM IN NEXT CRISIS

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Barclays Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc were downgraded by ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday amid fears the UK government will refuse to offer them financial support in the event of another crisis. The trio were among six European banks to have their ratings cut by S&P following a new EU law that will force any lender that requires financial help to slash its liabilities by 8 percent. Member states had to adhere to the new rules by Jan. 1. (http://bit.ly/1ApSItS)

VIRGIN MEDIA URGES SKY TO RAISE BROADBAND PRICES

Cable operator Virgin Media has risked a regulatory backlash by urging rivals to raise their broadband prices, arguing that consumers and businesses should pay more to fund investment in Britain's internet infrastructure. It made the appeal on Tuesday at an industry conference at BT Plc's headquarters. Sky Plc has slashed broadband charges part of its bitter rivalry with BT.

Sky News

BRITISH BANKERS' ASSOCIATION TO CALL FOR TRADERS TO REQUIRE TRADING LICENCE

All traders in Britain's financial markets should be forced to seek professional qualifications before they can operate, the banking industry's main lobbying group is to tell George Osborne. (http://bit.ly/1DC2gzK)

NEW CO-OP CHAIRMAN TO DONATE PAY TO CHARITY

The businessman being lined up as the Co-operative Group Ltd's first independent chairman is to donate his six-figure pay package to charitable causes linked to the mutual. Allan Leighton is expected to declare his intention to give away his salary if he is confirmed in the role as expected in the coming days. (http://bit.ly/1uVAEAF)

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
ADP employment change report for January at 8:15--consensus up 220K
Markit services PMI for January at 9:45--consensus 54.1
ISM non-manufacturing composite for January at 10:00--consensus 56.5
DOE petroleum inventory reports for week of Jan. 30 at 10:30

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

athenahealth (ATHN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
Church & Dwight (CHD) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill
Coupons.com (COUP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Entropic (ENTR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
Gladstone Capital (GLAD) upgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Hexcel (HXL) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS
Hilton (HLT) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Iconix Brand (ICON) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Capital
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
Quanta Services (PWR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T
Santander Mexico (BSMX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
SouFun (SFUN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Stryker (SYK) assumed with an Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray

Downgrades

Airgas (ARG) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at First Analysis
Arista Networks (ANET) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Artisan Partners (APAM) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Calix (CALX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Calix (CALX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Dean Foods (DF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Enduro Royalty (NDRO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Entropic (ENTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
Ericsson (ERIC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Fiserv (FISV) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
MDU Resources (MDU) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Marriott (MAR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
National Oilwell (NOV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
Pacific Coast Oil (ROYT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Pentair (PNR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
Pentair (PNR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein
Stratasys (SSYS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Triumph Group (TGI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Vanguard Natural (VNR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Waddell & Reed (WDR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
Waddell & Reed (WDR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup

Initiations

Columbia Property (CXP) Trust initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
Franklin Street (FSP) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
Legacy Reserves (LGCY) reinstated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Michaels (MIK) reinstated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Otonomy (OTIC) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
TerraForm Power (TERP) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays
Zimmer (ZMH) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray

COMPANY NEWS

J.M. Smucker (SJM) to acquire Big Heart Pet Brands for approximately $5.8B
Tronox (TROX) to acquire Alkali Chemicals business from FMC Corporation (FMC) for $1.64B
Statoil's (STO) board appointed Eldar Saetre as new president and CEO
Ford (F) said it would add 1,550 jobs to support demand for new F-150
Macy's (M) acquired Bluemercury for $210M in cash. Macy's said Q4 comparable sales growth on an owned plus licensed basis was 2.5%
Disney CEO Iger said no discernible impact to Disney parks from measles outbreak
Gilead (GILD), which announced a 43c dividend and $15B share buyback program,  said it plans to offer 46% discount on $1000 a day Hepatitis C pill Harvoni

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Asbury Automotive (ABG), Spectra Energy (SE), Evercore Partners (EVR), Cognizant (CTSH), Whirlpool (WHR), Steris (STE), ArcBest  (ARCB), ClickSoftware (cksw), Arlington Asset Investment (AI), Jack Henry (JKHY), Atmos Energy (ATO), Barrett Business (BBSI), Entropic (ENTR), Eagle Materials (EXP), Wabash (WNC), RenaissanceRe (RNR), Silgan Holdings (SLGN), IAC (IACI), C.H. Robinson (CHRW), Vascular Solutions (VASC), Enova International (ENVA), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), NeuStar (NSR), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), Disney (DIS), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Oclaro (OCLR), RingCentral (RNG), Take-Two (TTWO), Manhattan Associates (MANH), Planar Systems (PLNR), Omnicell (OMCL), Gilead (GILD), Ultimate Software (ULTI), Chipotle (CMG), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Unum Group (UNM)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Littelfuse (LFUS), Humana (HUM), Humana (HUM), Mueller Water (MWA), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Hudson Valley (HVB), Alpha & Omega (AOSL), Powell (POWL), RadiSys (RSYS), Sparton (SPA), AXIS Capital (AXS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), QCR Holdings (QCRH)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Healthcare Services (HCSG), Calix (CALX), Aflac (AFL), Pacific Biosciences (PACB), Vitesse (VTSS), Fiserv (FISV)

Whirlpool (WHR) backs FY15 ongoing business EPS view of $14.00-$15.00
Toyota (TM) reports Q3 net income 600B yen vs.525.46B yen last year
Take-Two (TTWO) sees Q4 EPS 15c-25c, consensus 25c, sees FY15 EPS $1.65-$1.75, consensus $1.38
Macy's (M) raises 2014 EPS outlook to $4.35-$4.37 from $4.25-$4.35, consensus $4.35

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Amazon (AMZN) challenges IDC report of 70% decline in tablet sales, Re/code reports
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) hires Citi (C), Goldman (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) to advise on possible ViiV IPO, Reuters reports
Novartis (NVS) faces temporary suspension in Japan, Financial Times reports
Apple (AAPL) PC shipments to grow 10%-15% in 2015, DigiTimes reports
Google (GOOG) SVP of Knowledge Alan Eustace to retire, TechCrunch says
Twitter (TWTR) to set up R&D center in India, Financial Times reports

SYNDICATE

Catalyst Pharmaceutical (CPRX) files automatic common stock shelf
Intercept (ICPT) files to sell 800k shares of common stock
Omega Healthcare (OHI) files to sell 8M shares of common stock
Pattern Energy (PEGI) 12M share Secondary priced at $29.25
Recro Pharma (REPH) files to sell 2.5M shares of common stock for holders
Senior Housing (SNH) files to sell 25M shares of common stock
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) files to sell common stock, no amount given
Ultragenyx (RARE) files automatic mixed securities shelf
Ultragenyx (RARE) files to sell $125M of common stock
Ziopharm (ZIOP) 10M share Secondary priced at $8.75

Frontrunning: February 6

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  • RadioShack files for bankruptcy; Sprint to take over some stores (Reuters)
  • Kansas To Issue Bonds and Invest Proceeds to Boost Pension Returns (WSJ)
  • Merkel to Make Last Push With Putin as Pessimism Prevails (BBG)
  • Islamic State in Syria seen under strain but far from collapse (Reuters)
  • Texas Swagger Fades Fast as Oil Town Squeezed Hard by OPEC (BBG)
  • SEC probes Blackberry options trading ahead of Reuters report about Samsung talks (Reuters)
  • Spanish Bonds Underperform Italy’s as Podemos Gains Popularity (BBG)
  • Steelworkers Union Rejects Offer From Refiners (WSJ)
  • Brazil January Inflation at Fastest Pace in Nearly 12 Years (BBG)
  • Japan automakers hit production snags as U.S. port dispute drags on (Reuters)
  • Anthem Sued Over Large Data Breach by California Consumer (BBG)
  • Iran’s Zanganeh blames oversupply (Reuters)
  • Anatomy of Nigeria’s $20 billion 'leak' (Reuters)
  • Amy Pascal Steps Down as Head of Sony’s Film Business (WSJ)
  • Harvard Hits Social Media to Attract Record 37,000 Applicants (BBG)
  • Taiwan pilots 'faced problem with one engine, restarted the other' (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* RadioShack Corp's retailing woes were aggravated by strategic confusion that handed power to bare-knuckled lenders. The electronics chain filed for bankruptcy reorganization on Thursday. (http://on.wsj.com/16xkdV6)

* Anthem Inc stored the Social Security numbers of 80 million customers without encrypting them, the result of what a person familiar with the matter described as a difficult balancing act between protecting the information and making it useful. Scrambling the data, which included addresses and phone numbers, could have made it less valuable to hackers or harder to access in bulk. (http://on.wsj.com/1zmrZN5)

* The deadly crash in Valhalla, New York, shows the limits of devices designed to keep cars from crossing tracks as trains approach, though such U.S. intersections have become safer recently. (http://on.wsj.com/1EKIgP9)

* As sanctions hawks in the U.S. Congress butt heads with President Barack Obama over negotiations with Iran, a similar battle on the Iranian side has been playing out. (http://on.wsj.com/1BZfdBe)

* Amy Pascal, who has run Sony Corp's movie business for more than a decade and worked at the studio for nearly 20 years, will step down in May as Sony Pictures co-chairman. She will become a producer based at the company. (http://on.wsj.com/1EJvoZr)

* Hedge-fund managers who employ complicated, automatic-trading strategies made millions off the wild swings in currency and commodity markets in recent weeks. (http://on.wsj.com/1ze8EZz)

* Apollo Global Management's results were hit by a drop in the share price of EP Energy Corp, the private-equity firm's biggest oil and gas bet. But thanks to about $750 million in fees and dividends, Apollo and other investors in the energy company are close to breaking even. (http://on.wsj.com/1FcQHjD)

* The chief executives of the three largest U.S. airlines said they are pressing the U.S. government to modify or kill air treaties with two Persian Gulf nations. The CEOs cited what they claim are subsidies and government industrial policies that favor three of the Gulf region's fast-growing carriers, distorting global air transportation. (http://on.wsj.com/1KjlQF0)

* Walt Disney Co on Thursday tapped parks and resorts chief Thomas Staggs as its operations chief, making the company veteran the leading candidate to be Disney's next CEO. (http://on.wsj.com/1EKC7lU)

* Twitter Inc reported new user growth that slowed more than expected, underscoring ongoing concerns, but the social media company said it sees a return to prior growth levels this year. (http://on.wsj.com/1KwOcK9)

* Securities regulators in the United States and Canada are probing whether a recent news report about a possible purchase of BlackBerry Ltd by Samsung Electronics Co Ltd was sparked by investors intent on manipulating the Canadian smartphone maker's stock. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ie5j7u)

* The chairman of Hyundai Motor Co and his heir-apparent have raised 1.16 trillion won ($1.07 billion) through the sale of their stakes in the car group's logistics arm. (http://on.wsj.com/16KmxsH)

* The United Steelworkers union rejected the latest offer from U.S. refiners Thursday evening, continuing the strike at nine plants around the country. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ie68gM)

 

FT

Google's decision to limit censorship under Europe's new "right to be forgotten" rules to its websites based there, and not extend it the world over, has found some backing from a group of independent experts. However, the group also suggested that it should tinker with its processes to decide which links to delete.

Amy Pascal, whose embarrassing emails leaked out in the wake of an online security breach at Sony Pictures last year, has stepped down from her position. However, she has cracked a deal with the company that will keep her based at its California headquarters.

After Pfizer announced its acquisition of U.S. pharma company Hospira for $17 bln on Thursday, analysts said the long expected split of Pfizer is imminent. "We think this deal signals a firm intent to separate in 2017," said Jeffrey Holford, an analyst at Jefferies.

Cyber attacks pose such a big threat to global companies that governments should step in to cover the risks, said Stephen Catlin, head of Lloyd's of London insurer. Catlin was speaking a day after it was reported that cybercriminals had hacked into Anthem, a U.S. health insurer.

 

NYT

* An attempt by Greece to shift the country's debt narrative away from austerity ran into a wall of inflexibility during a two-day trip to Germany. (http://nyti.ms/1AyyBcV)

* For all the opposition to debt forgiveness, the notion has resurfaced as the new government in Athens, facing a cash squeeze, looks for ways to reduce what it owes. (http://nyti.ms/1D3UnES)

* Takata Corp, the Japanese car parts supplier embroiled in a crisis over dangerously defective airbags, added $50 million on Thursday to its loss forecast for its fiscal year, saying that it was facing growing costs to replace faulty components in millions of affected vehicles. (http://nyti.ms/1Kx2xX0)

* RadioShack Corp, a long-ailing 94-year-old electronics chain, filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday after striking a deal to sell up to 2,400 of its stores to the wireless service provider Sprint and a hedge fund that is its biggest shareholder. (http://nyti.ms/1uhuEHj)

* Ally Financial Inc has separated painfully from its former parent, General Motors Co, and paid off the Treasury in December. Now with a new chief executive in place, it is aiming to ramp up performance. (http://nyti.ms/1DFdhQo)

* The Securities and Exchange Commission accused Christian B. Keller, an in-house financial specialist and three others, including an analyst at Barclay's, of illegally trading ahead of four news announcements made by Keller's employers, Applied Materials Inc and then Rovi Corp. (http://nyti.ms/1AyAF4L)

* The boutique investment bank Moelis & Co on Thursday reported a higher fourth-quarter profit, though its results fell short of Wall Street's expectations. (http://nyti.ms/1Kx3vSZ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Police believe two Liberal operatives, including one of Premier Kathleen Wynne's top aides, broke the law by offering a former candidate a government job in exchange for dropping out of the Sudbury by-election race. (http://bit.ly/1yPUAX9)

** Canadian universities have used the temporary foreign worker program to recruit for about a quarter of their new permanent jobs over the last five years. Schools are urging the government to relax new rules that they say are hurting their ability to recruit internationally. (http://bit.ly/1Kxr3Hs)

** Ontario's First Nations leaders are demanding the National Energy Board halt its review of TransCanada Corp's Energy East project until they can be properly consulted. In a letter to Natural Resources Minister Greg Rickford, Ontario regional chief Stan Beardy said First Nations have "grave concern" about the NEB process, saying the board has been inaccessible and unwilling to share information with them. (http://bit.ly/1znsUfY)

NATIONAL POST

** The Harper government struck a provocative pose Thursday, telling Russia to "back off" in Ukraine, promising to campaign for NATO membership on behalf of another former Soviet republic and urging all allies to do more. (http://bit.ly/18TKy1b)

** Ottawa MPP Lisa MacLeod will drop out of the race for provincial Progressive Conservative leader Friday morning, but she hasn't made up her mind about whether she'll run for federal office. "That may not be the answer anyone wants immediately, but it's the answer I have," she said in an interview over tea in a Barrhaven cafe. "I'll make that decision in the next week." (http://bit.ly/1C08ozr)

** DVD and Blu-ray rental company Redbox is shutting down its Canadian operations and pulling its rental kiosks out of Canada. Chicago-based Redbox announced that it made the decision after failing to generate sufficient business at its 1,400 rental kiosks across the country. (http://bit.ly/1znw3N1)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- Sixteen listed brokerages said in their January earnings reports that their net profit soared 211 percent to 6.46 billion yuan ($73.58 million), exceeding market expectations.

- The State Council has approved a mixed ownership reform plan for the China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation, its subsidiaries said. China National Medicines Corporation will be among the first to take part, it said.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said it found corruption, such as misuse of power for money, during its November inspection of state-owned firms such as Dongfeng Motor Corporation and Shenhua Group.

- Twenty-four firms will issue new shares next week which are likely to see investors locking up 2 trillion yuan in anticipation.

CHINA DAILY

- China plans to take new measures to support the overseas expansion of its train makers CSR Corp and China CNR .

SHANGHAI DAILY

- Shanghai police have smashed a gang operation in Shanghai city and the province of Guangdong, seizing 2.4 tonnes of methamphetamine in the city's largest ever drug bust.

 

Britain

The Times

REXAM WANTS 4 BLN STG MERGER

British drinks can maker Rexam Plc could be sold to U.S. rival Ball Corp in a 4.3 billion pound merger to create a tin cans giant that would trigger scrutiny by competition authorities. (http://thetim.es/1Kl0jvA)

STANDARD CHARTERED MAY OPT FOR SHARES PAYOUT

Standard Chartered Plc could hand out shares rather than cash when it comes to pay its full-year dividend. Investors, analysts and banking industry insiders say that the struggling emerging markets lender should consider paying at least a portion of its annual dividend in stock as fears grow over the balance sheet. (http://thetim.es/1zTTeip)

The Guardian

TRAVELODGE BOOKS IN FOR 1.3 BLN STG EXPANSION

Budget hotel chain Travelodge is planning to capitalise on the Britain's growing appetite for cheap stayovers with a 1.3 billion pounds expansion programme this year that will target 205 new hotel sites, mostly in London and the south-east. (http://bit.ly/1v2T4PU)

The Telegraph

GREECE PLEADS WITH BERLIN FOR TIME AND MONEY TO RE-WRITE DEBT DEAL

Greece's finance minister pleaded for his country to be given time and money to negotiate a new debt deal with its creditors, after the European Central Bank sought to pull the carpet from under the feet of the country's stricken banks. (http://bit.ly/1Cz4ZwE)

WONGA AVOIDS CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION OVER FAKE LETTERS

The City of London Police has ruled out opening a criminal investigation into Wonga after concluding that the payday lender's fake letter scandal was not a case of fraud. A spokesman for the police force said the demands for repayment that Wonga sent its customers under fake lawyers' names were not "falsely purporting to be debt recovery agencies", since the letters' small print showed that they were in fact from Wonga. (http://bit.ly/1xrArVJ)

FORMER CITY MINISTER MARK HOBAN TO JOIN THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE

Mark Hoban, the former City minister, has lined up a non-executive job at the London Stock Exchange as he prepares to leave Westminster. Hoban, the Conservative MP for Fareham, will join the board of the stock market with immediate effect. He has also been named as the new chairman of Flood Re, the insurance industry scheme to provide cover to households at risk of flooding. (http://bit.ly/1DkdOK5)

Sky News

ECB PULLS PLUG ON GREEK GOVERNMENT BONDS

Greece's access to vital loans has been squeezed after the European Central Bank stopped accepting the government's bonds as collateral. The ECB had been accepting the junk-rated bonds, but in a statement said it was changing its mind because of uncertainty over Greece's bailout commitments. The country's new leaders are currently jetting around Europe trying to renegotiate their 240 billion euros bailout package and ease austerity obligations. (http://bit.ly/1KwqBJr)

VIRGIN ACTIVE GETS FIT FOR JOHANNESBURG IPO

Virgin Active has picked a quintet of banks to work on a flotation that will value one of Britain's biggest health and fitness chains at around 1.5 billion pounds. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Standard Bank and UBS have been hired by Virgin Active's board to work on the public listing. (http://bit.ly/1uftps6)

SINGAPORE STATE FUND EYES MISYS SOFTWARE DEAL

Singaporean state fund Temasek Holdings is plotting a takeover bid for Misys, one of the UK's biggest software companies. Temasek is among a number of potential acquirers examining offers for Misys, which was a member of the FTSE-250 index before it was taken private in 2012. (http://bit.ly/1DCQCV3)

The Independent

TESCO TO BE INVESTIGATED BY GROCERY INDUSTRY WATCHDOG OVER SUPPLIER PRACTICES

An official investigation is to be made into Tesco Plc to find out whether the supermarket giant broke the grocery industry watchdog's rules, including through delayed payments to its suppliers. The Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA), Christine Tacon, announced the move today, saying she had formed a "reasonable suspicion" that the retailer had breached the Groceries Supply Code of Practice. (http://ind.pn/1zCriOl)

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Nonfarm payrolls for January at 8:30--consensus up 230K
Unemployment rate for January at 8:30--consensus 5.6%
Consumer credit for December at 15:00--consensus $15.2B

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

ABB (ABB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
AXIS Capital (AXS) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
Best Buy (BBY) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
CyberArk (CYBR) upgraded to In-Line from Underperform at Imperial Capital
Everest Re (RE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
First BanCorp (FBP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
GrubHub (GRUB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Capital
Hospira (HSP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Ironwood (IRWD) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Cantor
MEDNAX (MD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Nationstar (NSM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
PartnerRe (PRE) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
PennantPark (PNNT) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
PennantPark (PNNT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Prudential plc (PUK) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
RenaissanceRe (RNR) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
Santander Chile (BSAC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Staples (SPLS) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Synchronoss (SNCR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at RW Baird

Downgrades

Apollo Global (APO) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Apollo Investment (AINV) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
BioMed Realty (BMR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho
Broadridge (BR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
DuPont Fabros (DFT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Empresas ICA (ICA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Expedia (EXPE) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Gilead (GILD) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen
National Bank of Greece (NBG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
OFG Bancorp (OFG)  downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Pandora (P) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Pandora (P) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Pandora (P) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley
Post Properties (PPS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Prestige Brands (PBH) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Sprint (S) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI
Telenor (TELNY) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Teradata (TDC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
USG (USG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Viacom (VIAB) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities
Wesco Aircraft (WAIR) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Yelp (YELP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
Yelp (YELP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at B. Riley

Initiations

ACADIA (ACAD) coverage resumed with a Buy at Roth Capital
AmSurg (AMSG) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
BB&T (BBT) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Citizens Financial (CFG) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Comerica (CMA) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Inphi (IPHI) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
KeyCorp (KEY) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
M&T Bank (MTB) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Regions Financial (RF) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Sunoco Logistics (SXL) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Sunoco (SUN) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Zions Bancorp (ZION) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse

COMPANY NEWS

Frontier Communications (FTR) announced a definitive agreement with Verizon (VZ) under which Frontier will acquire Verizon’s wireline operations that provide services to residential, commercial and wholesale customers in California, Florida and Texas, for $10.54B in cash
Verizon (VZ) lease rights to over 11,300 towers to American Tower (AMT) for $5B
Verizon (VZ) to return $5B to holders through share repurchase
Harris (HRS) to acquire Exelis (XLS) for $23.75 per share, or approximately $4.75B
Twitter (TWTR) reported Q4 Average Monthly Active Users up 20% to 288M, sees Q1 net user adds similar to rate of first three quarters of 2014
Trian said DuPont (DD) "appears to be acknowledging” the need to upgrade its board with individuals that have “fresh, independent, highly relevant perspectives"
GoPro (GPRO) COO Nina Richardson resigning to pursue other opportunities, board roles
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) announced a new $750M share repurchase program

EARNINGS
Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Twitter (TWTR), LinkedIn (LNKD),  GoPro (GPRO), Sirona Dental (SIRO), Aon plc (AON), Sensient (SXT), Silicon Image (SIMG), ACETO (ACET), Simpson Manufacturing (SSD), AptarGroup (ATR), Audience (ADNC), Evans Bancorp (EVBN), Rentrak (RENT), Endurance Specialty (ENH), SPS Commerce (SPSC), Sierra Wireless (SWIR), SMART Technologies (SMT), Iteris (ITI), Universal Technical (UTI), Paylocity (PCTY), LeapFrog (LF), Marin Software (MRIN), Brightcove (BCOV), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), Control4 (CTRL), McKesson (MCK), Standard Pacific (SPF), Tempur Sealy (TPX), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Axcelis (ACLS), Maxwell (MXWL), Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT), News Corp. (NWSA), athenahealth (ATHN), Mettler-Toledo (MTD), FleetCor (FLT), Outerwall (OUTR), Yelp (YELP), Pixelworks (PXLW), Symantec (SYMC), Kemper (KMPR), Haynes (HAYN), Fluidigm (FLDM), FBL Financial (FFG), Nuance (NUAN), ePlus (PLUS), bebe stores (BEBE), Netgear (NTGR), Echo Global (ECHO), Lionsgate (LGF)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Intrawest Resorts (SNOW), Olin Corp. (OLN), Bristow Group (BRS), Post Holdings (POST), Badger Meter (BMI), ARC Group (ARCW), Craft Brew (BREW), Aspen Insurance (AHL), eGain (EGAN), Amtech Systems (ASYS), Cardica (CRDC), Moelis (MC), Wesco Aircraft (WAIR), DeVry (DV), VeriSign (VRSN), Cutera (CUTR), Elizabeth Arden (RDEN), Fairway Group (FWM), PDF Solutions (PDFS), Brooks Automation (BRKS), pSivida (PSDV), Expedia (EXPE), Pandora (P), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), NIC Inc. (EGOV)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Empire District Electric (EDE), Capstone Turbine (CPST), Q2 Holdings (QTWO), SciQuest (SQI), TeleCommunication Systems (TSYS), Imperva (IMPV), Callidus Software (CALD), Solera (SLH), Stericycle (SRCL)

GoPro (GPRO) sees Q1 EPS 15c-17c, consensus 17c
Yelp (YELP) sees FY15 revenue $538M-$543M, consensus $537.98M
Twitter (TWTR)  sees Q1 revenue $440M-$450M, consensus $449.68M, sees FY15 revenue $2.3B-$2.35B, consensus $2.3B
LinkedIn (LNKD) sees FY15 adjusted EPS approximately $2.95, consensus $2.73

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES
RadioShack (RSH) files for bankruptcy protection, Bloomberg reports
SEC investigating insider trading of BlackBerry (BBRY) options, Reuters reports
Expedia (EXPE) may see $847M tax fine from State governments, Bloomberg reports
Anthem (ANTM) did not encrypt information prior to hack, WSJ reports
United Steelworkers reject offer from oil refiners, WSJ reports (MPC, TSO, LYB, RDS.A, RDS.B)

SYNDICATE
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) files to sell 41.5M shares of common stock for Vivendi (VIVHY)
Columbia Pipeline (CPPL) 46.81M share IPO priced at $23.00
Dave & Busters (PLAY) 6.6M share Secondary priced at $29.50
Easterly Government Properties (DEA) 12M share IPO priced at $15.00
Emerald Oil (EOX) files to sell $25M of common stock
M/A-COM (MTSI) 7.8M share Secondary priced at $30.00
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) files to sell 4M common units for limited partners
Ohr Pharmaceutical (OHRP) files automatic common stock shelf
Oncothyreon (ONTY) files to sell common stock and series B convertible preferred stock
Oncothyreon (ONTY) files to sell common stock, Series B Convertible Preferred Stock
One Horizon Group (OHGI) files to sell 3.28M shares of common stock for holders
Prologis (PLD) files to sell $750M of common stock 'at-the-market'
Sterling Bancorp (STL) 6M share Secondary priced at $13.00
Trovagene (TROV) files automatic common stock shelf
WashingtonFirst Bankshares (WFBI) files to sell 1.37M shares of common stock for holder

What Wall Street Expects From The January Payrolls Number

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Here is what the sellside is looking for when the BLS reports the January NFP in less than 30 minutes:

  • UBS 200K
  • Goldman Sachs 210K
  • HSBC 225K
  • JP Morgan 225K
  • Credit Suisse 230K
  • Deutsche Bank 240K
  • Morgan Stanley 245K
  • Citigroup 275K

And some more from RanSquawk's full preview of January non-farm payrolls:

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) M/M Exp. 230K (Low 180K, High 286K), Prev. 252K, Nov. 353K
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jan) M/M Exp. 5.6% (Low 5.4%, High 5.7%), Prev. 5.6%, Nov. 5.8%
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Jan) M/M Exp. 0.3% (Low 0.1%, High 0.4%), Prev. -0.2%, Nov. 0.2%

January’s report is expected to show a slower rate of jobs growth but still print above 200K in a continuation of last year’s strong employment trend. The median consensus for the headline figure is 230K with all analysts expecting average hourly earnings to marginally increase after a surprise decline was observed in December. However, recent economic indicators have not been too encouraging with the employment component of January’s ISM Non-Manufacturing release coming at the lowest since February 2014. Moreover, the employment index of the ISM Manufacturing release from the same month also significantly missed on street expectations. January’s employment data could be also impacted by seasonal adjustment issues if firms hired more workers over the holiday season than usual based on a view of improved economic conditions.

Last month’s FOMC minutes reiterated that the Fed is data dependent in terms of monetary policy moves while the statement also referred to the strength of the US labour market. Although the unemployment rate continues to approach levels indicating full employment, other measures including the underemployment rate and wage growth still indicate that a degree of slack remains in the economy.

Market Reaction

A headline reading above the median expectation of 230K and evidence of a return to wage growth could lift US equity markets and the USD in the short-term with the Fed indicated to stay on hold until at least June. Treasuries could also see some curve steepening in the aftermath of a strong employment report although 10-year yields have already seen their largest three-day increase since September 2013 as last month’s rally in fixed income markets appears to have halted despite Greek default concerns and volatile oil prices. If the report falls considerably short of expectations then it is possible this could see markets shift their expectations of rate-lift off by the Fed with the possibility of a June rate hike potentially being taken off the table, which subsequently could provide a more sustained reaction across US asset classes than previous reports.

* * *

BUT

Recall that as we noted yesterday, "January Payrolls Have Missed Expectations 9 Of The Last 10 Times"

The US chief analyst of Nordea, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, points out a curious statistical finding: in the past decade, consensus forecast over-estimated January reading on 9 out of 10 occasions. As the chart below shows, the average overoptimistic consensus miss for January is just about 50K, with the last time consensus was lower than the final result taking place in 2012, and before that, one has to go all the way back to 2003 for the second payrolls "beat".

Frontrunning: February 9

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  • Greek Risk Draws Global Concern on Lehman Echo Warnings (BBG)
  • Merkel to urge caution in U.S. as pressure builds to arm Ukraine forces (Reuters)
  • West Races to Defuse Ukraine Crisis (WSJ)
  • German-French Push Yields Ukraine Summit Plan With Putin (BBG)
  • Swiss Leaks lifts the veil on a secretive banking system (ICIJ)
  • Italy Lenders Seen Cleansing Books Amid Bad-Bank Plans (BBG)
  • G-20 Finance Chiefs Face Tough Test in Istanbul (WSJ)
  • Demand for OPEC Crude Will Rise This Year, Says Group (WSJ)... or rather prays
  • U.S. Banks Say Soaring Dollar Puts Them at Disadvantage (WSJ)
  • Oil steadies near $58 as U.S. rig count offsets Chinese data (Reuters)
  • Turkish Lira Falls to Record as Erdogan Attacks Monetary Policy (BBG)
  • Behind RadioShack’s Collapse Is a Tiny Distressed Lender (BBG)
  • British Muslims protest in London against Charlie Hebdo cartoons (Reuters)
  • Saxo Bank Takes Hard Line on Clients’ Swiss Franc Losses (WSJ)
  • HSBC admits Swiss bank failings over client taxes (Reuters)
  • Conquering China’s Mountain of Debt (BBG)
  • U.S. companies may not be fleeing due to high tax rate, Reuters analysis shows (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The United States and Germany are struggling to maintain a united front against an unflinching Russia ahead of a crucial week of high-stakes, top-level diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis. (http://on.wsj.com/1Fo724Y)

* The strengthening U.S. dollar is rippling through the financial system in unexpected ways, revealing what bankers say is a hidden flaw in a Federal Reserve proposal to increase capital cushions at the nation's largest banks. (http://on.wsj.com/1ALSWM7)

* Dubai, through its government and ruler-owned real-estate conglomerates, is leading a construction frenzy of ambitious developments that seem to cost increasingly more with each new announcement. Dubai has slowly but surely clawed its way out of the hole it dug for itself in 2009 when a series of government-linked companies, including several under the direct control of the ruler, were unable to pay lenders on time and called for a standstill on repayments. (http://on.wsj.com/16Dp0Eo)

* As the telecom industry marches forward, Frontier Communications Corp is growing quickly by snapping up the unloved telephone lines its bigger competitors are leaving behind. (http://on.wsj.com/1znmpFq)

* Copenhagen-based Saxo Bank has taken an aggressive approach to handling customer foreign-exchange losses that followed the Swiss central bank's decision to let the franc rise against the euro. (http://on.wsj.com/1A48ZoK)

* The anti-austerity position taken by the just-elected government toward Greece's creditors has given new hope to many Athenians, even those who did not vote for the leftist Syriza party. (http://on.wsj.com/1yYYBJ9)

* Morgan Stanley is joining the hedge-fund retreat. The New York bank is looking to sell its 19 percent stake in the $17.5 billion London-based Lansdowne Partners LLP, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1DvraTP)

* Coca-Cola Co and PepsiCo Inc likely will highlight rough going abroad but improving conditions at home when they publish fourth-quarter results this week. (http://on.wsj.com/1DSSskY)

* Credit Suisse Group AG is launching a specialty finance company to invest in the unrated debt of small or midsize U.S. companies, following in the footsteps of rivals such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc and a handful of private-equity giants. (http://on.wsj.com/1C9IqvW)

 

FT

The U.S. Department of Justice will investigate the sale of "structured products" to investors by Barclays and UBS without disclosing the returns they made on currency trades used to generate the products' returns.

Warren Buffett is facing pressure from investment analysts to disclose more information on his $370 billion company Berkshire Hathaway, particularly about its large insurance business.

Sienna Capital, an affiliate of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert , has invested 150 million euros in Primestone - a hedge fund that aims to buy stakes in listed companies and work alongside management to increase shareholder value.

British private equity group Terra Firma will change its approach to investment and put 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) of its own capital into deals as it seeks to restore its reputation after the debt-laden takeover of EMI in 2007.

 

NYT

* The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is starting to draw up regulations that could sharply reduce the number of unaffordable loans with high interest rates from payday lenders.(http://nyti.ms/170xu9v)

* A year after it was announced, Comcast Corp's audacious acquisition of Time Warner Cable Inc remains in limbo as Washington regulators scrutinize the deal. The air of inevitability around Comcast's proposed $45 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable has dissipated as the F.C.C. prepares to vote on a proposal to regulate the Internet like a utility. (http://nyti.ms/1uu1dlB)

* The New York Fire Department will receive additional funding in Mayor Bill de Blasio's budget to increase staffing in hopes of shaving seconds off ambulance response times, city officials said. (http://nyti.ms/1M4DVIE)

* Investors in billions of dollars of Puerto Rico bonds secured a major legal victory when a federal judge ruled that the commonwealth's recently enacted debt-restructuring law was unconstitutional. (http://nyti.ms/1yZ1XM2)

* A pair of fast-growing digital media companies, Vox and BuzzFeed, have landed their first interviews with President Obama. The interviews are the latest indication that Vox and BuzzFeed News have emerged as serious news organizations, and are a further sign of the Obama administration's efforts to connect with millennials. (http://nyti.ms/1yZ3rpE)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Tim Hortons Inc has apologized after the owner of a Vancouver location was seen dumping a bucket of water on a homeless man sleeping outside. The incident at the Tim Hortons was first reported on Friday by witnesses on social media, where posts urging a boycott were shared thousands of times. (http://bit.ly/1CablQC)

** After suffering a clear loss in the Canadian Supreme Court, opponents of physician-assisted suicide now want to persuade the federal government to impose the tightest possible restrictions on the medical procedure. Constitutional-law experts and political insiders said the most likely option at this point is new legislation within the 12-month time frame that was offered by the Supreme Court in its unanimous ruling on Friday. (http://bit.ly/1A9AhZg)

** The Canadian army somehow lost three highly sophisticated, precision-guided artillery shells on its ways out of Afghanistan in an embarrassing case that resulted in an almost two-year investigation. (http://bit.ly/1yZNek5)

NATIONAL POST

** Fourth-quarter figures released last week by the Canadian Venture Capital Association show the information and communications technology sector scooped the largest share of venture capital funding in 2014 with C$1.3 billion ($1.04 billion) - up from C$1.1 billion in 2013. (http://bit.ly/1ERZ1rH)

** London-based barrister Amal Clooney is going to Cairo for visiting the family of Mohamed Fahmy, a Canadian citizen who was former Cairo bureau chief for Al Jazeera English and has been jailed for over a year in Egypt on charges of falsifying news during civil unrest and having terrorist links to the Muslim Brotherhood. (http://bit.ly/1Dw81Bg)

 

Britain

The Times

The new boss of Centrica Plc is facing calls to cut its dividend for the first time in almost a decade as it grapples with the oil price collapse and falling profits for household gas and electricity. (http://thetim.es/1ER2ir7)

Inflation will turn negative this year because of the dramatic slide in energy costs, the Bank of England will predict this week. (http://thetim.es/1Ky7OPI)

The Guardian

HSBC's Swiss banking arm helped wealthy customers dodge taxes and conceal millions of dollars of assets, doling out bundles of untraceable cash and advising clients on how to circumvent domestic tax authorities, according to a huge cache of leaked secret bank account files. (http://bit.ly/1zM7Tun)

A leading free market thinktank has issued a fierce attack on George Osborne, accusing him of cynical electioneering after the chancellor announced the amount of market-beating "pensioner bonds", available to people over 65, would be increased to 15 billion pounds ($22.86 billion) by the general election in May. (http://bit.ly/1zMCmZq)

The Telegraph

The Labour Party has begun a desperate attempt to quell growing accusations that the party is anti-business after Ed Miliband's attack on the chairman of Boots Company Plc, insisting it is "aggressively pro-business". (http://bit.ly/1vzm081)

Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis's attempts to heal relationships with suppliers suffered a blow yesterday as it emerged that the troubled supermarket continues to put pressure on already squeezed small businesses. (http://bit.ly/1DuSAZT)

Sky News

Ministers are to unveil a fresh drive urging consumers to switch energy companies just weeks before the main parties pledge renewed oversight of the industry in their general election manifestos. (http://bit.ly/1vzm9IP)

Tax havens such as Bermuda, Jersey and Guernsey will have six months to open their books or face international blacklisting if the Labour Party wins the general election in May, Ed Miliband has vowed. (http://bit.ly/1CJoNOa)

The Independent

Poundland Group Plc is set to take over rival discounter 99p Stores for 55 million pounds in a deal that would see the company become one of the biggest retailers on the high street. (http://ind.pn/1zVIEZN)

The accountancy giant PricewaterhouseCoopers is promoting tax avoidance by multinational firms "on an industrial scale," MPs said in a damning report published today. (http://ind.pn/1IduJSF)

 

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Labor market conditions index change for January at 10:00--prior 6.1

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Advanced Semiconductor (ASX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Conn's (CONN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Delhaize (DEG) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Frontier Communications (FTR) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Harris (HRS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
Hyatt Hotels (H) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust
Mosaic (MOS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Nippon Telegraph (NTT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Pfizer (PFE) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Statoil (STO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Downgrades

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point
BNP Paribas (BNPQY) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
BioMed Realty (BMR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Miller Tabak
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Century Aluminum (CENX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Chesapeake Lodging (CHSP) downgraded to Market Perform at JMP Securities
Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities
DISH (DISH) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Dermira (DERM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Discovery (DISCA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital
Emerson (EMR) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Foresight Energy (FELP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
KeyCorp (KEY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
MarineMax (HZO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
PHH Corp. (PHH) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Petrobras (PBR) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Prudential (PRU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Regions Financial (RF) downgraded to Underperform at Keefe Bruyette
Roche (RHHBY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Sensient (SXT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli
Skechers (SKX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley

Initiations

AbbVie (ABBV) initiated with a Sell at Citigroup
Novartis (NVS) resumed with a Buy at Citigroup
Post Holdings (POST) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Valeant (VRX) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Vermillion (VRML) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital

COMPANY NEWS

Alibaba (BABA) announced a $590M strategic investment in Meizu
The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which is comprised of reporters from 45 countries, said over the weekend that leaked documents show HSBC (HSBC) profited from maintaining secret bank accounts for "criminals, traffickers, tax dodgers, politicians and celebrities"
Google (GOOG) acquired private photo sharing/backup app Odysee
SeaWorld (SEAS) appointed Daniel Brown Chief Parks Operations Officer
Starboard 'applauds' Staples (SPLS) acquisition of Office Depot (ODP)
Intuit (INTU) announced that TurboTax has resumed e-filing of state income tax returns. The company continues to work with the states as they build their own anti-fraud capabilities and will share best practices as it works toward the best interests of the taxpayer. The resumption comes after the company temporarily paused transmissions upon seeing an increase in suspicious filings and attempts by criminals to use stolen identity information to file fraudulent state tax returns and claim tax refunds

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Hasbro (HAS), Diamond Offshore (DO), Loews (L), Sohu.com (SOHU), Cameco (CCJ), Dominion (D), Dominion Midstream (DM)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Changyou.com (CYOU)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Golub Capital (GBDC)

CNA Financial (CNA) reports Q4 adjusted NOI 96c, consensus 80c
Changyou.com (CYOU) sees Q1 non-GAAP EPS 64c-68c, consensus 24c
Sohu.com (SOHU) sees Q1 non-GAAP EPS ($1.05)-(95c), consensus (72c)
Cameco (CCJ) sees FY15 consolidated revenue declining up to 5%, consensus $2.52B
Frontier Communications (FTR) sees Q4 revenue approximately $1.33B, consensus $1.34B, sees FY14 revenue about $4.772B, consensus $4.79B
Dominion (D) sees Q1 EPS 85c-$1.00, consensus $1.03

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

HSBC (HSBC) admits control failures at Swiss unit, Reuters reports
Qualcomm (QCOM) could announce deal with China today, Reuters reports
U.S. probe of UBS (UBS), Barclays (BCS) foreign exchange products expands, FT reports
Motorola Solutions (MSI) to explore possible sale, Bloomberg reports (RTN, HON, GD)
JPMorgan (JPM) hiring practices in Asia under U.S. scrutiny, WSJ reports
Actuant (ATU) shares could rise 25%, Barron's says
AbbVie (ABBV) could climb 30%, Barron's says
Donaldson (DCI) could be good for long-term investors, Barron's says

SYNDICATE

American CareSource (ANCI) files to sell $15M of common stock
Johnson Controls (JCI) files automatic mixed securities shelf
Marcus & Millichap (MMI) files to sell 4.6M shares of common stock for holders
POZEN (POZN) files to sell 8.5M shares of common stock

 

 


The Global Financial System Stands On The Brink Of Second Credit Crisis

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HEADLINES

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EU's Juncker Tells Greek PM ''Don't Assume Eurozone Will Accept Your Plans''

Greece PM Defies EU Pressure, Sticks To Pre-Election Promises

UK Chancellor Osborne Admits Grexit Contingency Plan Preparations

German CDU Party's Fuchs Says 'We Are Prepared For Grexit'

French FinMin Sapin Says Greece Needs Extension, Bridge Loan

OECD: G20 Must Focus On Productivity, Competitiveness To Boost Growth

OPEC Cuts Forecast For US Oil-Supply Growth After Price Rout

US CBO Estimates $19 Bln Jan Govt Deficit Vs $10 Bln Deficit Jan'14

US Tsy's Lew: US Economy Has Turned Corner, More Wage Growth Needed

Bank of France Forecasts Q1 French GDP Growth At +0.4%

Bank Of Italy Boosts GDP Growth Estimates On ECB Measures

China's Imports Slump, Capping Dismal January Trade Performance

Eurozone Sentiment Improves Sharply In February On ECB Bond-Buying

Apple Plans Debut Swiss Franc Bond Sale

Loews Profit From Continuing Operations Falls 13%

Hasbro Raises Quarterly Dividend 7% To $0.46; 3.3% Yield

HSBC Board Announces Quarterly Dividend Of $0.3875 Per ADS

VW's Audi Has Record January Sales, Beats Mercedes

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COMMENTARY

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ECB Doing 'Too Little, Too Late' To Rescue Eurozone, Experts Warn

Eurozone stimulus will be “too little, too late” to revive the currency bloc’s feeble economy, experts have warned.

If policymakers do not learn from their mistakes, then the euro project may come to a nasty end, as the euro area falls further into a deflationary spiral.

Scott Sumner, a leading monetary economist, has said that a €1.1 trillion (£820bn) quantitative easing package unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) in January will not be sufficient to reverse the euro area’s decline.

Writing for the Telegraph, Mr Sumner said that “European officials have not learned any of the lessons offered by the Japanese experience” of prolonged economic stagnation. (Telegraph – Continue Reading)

 

US Investors Primed For Midyear Rate Rise

US investors are priming themselves for the first tightening of interest rate policy this summer as strengthening employment conditions in the world’s largest economy counter worries over slowing global activity.

It is a shift in sentiment for investors who had expected the first interest rate rise from the US Federal Reserve to arrive late this year or early 2016, and comes after employment numbers released on Friday showed solid job and wage gains. (FT – Continue Reading)

The Global Financial System Stands On The Brink Of Second Credit Crisis

The world economy stands on the brink of a second credit crisis as the vital transmission systems for lending between banks begin to seize up and the debt markets fall over. The latest round of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank will buy some time but it looks like too little too late.

It was the collapse of US house prices back in 2007 that resulted in the seizure of the credit markets and banking crisis of 2008. And it would be easy to lay the blame for the 2008 financial crisis at the doorstep of American home owners, easy but wrong. The collapse of the US housing market was not the cause of the crisis, it was merely a symptom of the more insidious ills of cheap credit, low risk and the promise of another bailout round the corner.

The Keynesian pump priming that has taken place on a colossal scale across the world is failing. The Chinese economy was growing at 12pc in 2010, but that slowed to 7.7pc in 2013 and 7.4pc last year — its weakest in 24 years. Economists expect Chinese growth to slow to 7pc this year. It is the once booming property sector that has turned into a bust, and is now dragging down the wider economy as the bubble deflates.  (Telegraph – Continue Reading)

Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks To Open Wednesday In Belarus

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France have agreed to meet Wednesday in Belarus for talks aimed at a deal to end the surging pro-Russian rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

Their agreement came Sunday in four-way phone talks that followed crisis talks Friday in Moscow involving Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.  

Merkel is due in Washington Monday for talks with President Barack Obama about the fighting, which has claimed more than 5,600 lives since rebels launched their uprising 10 months ago.  A cease-fire reached in September has gone unheeded by both sides. (VOA – Continue Reading)

 

Abbott's Days As PM Are Numbered, Experts Say

Australia's prime minister may have survived a crucial leadership challenge on Monday, but that doesn't mean he'll remain in power for much longer, experts told CNBC.

"He's a goner…I don't think he'll last the twelve weeks until the critical budget [in May]," said Colin Chapman, founder and editor-in-chief of think-tank Australia and ASEAN Strategies. "He's on borrowed time and I can't see anything he can do in the coming months that can change that."

Monday's spill motion, an internal vote held between all Liberal Party members of parliament (MPs), revealed that 61 MPs voted for Abbott to remain in power, while 39 were against him. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Leaked HSBC List Shows Who Was Banking On Swiss Secrecy

The private-banking unit of HSBC Holdings Plc made significant profits for years handling secret accounts for an array of criminals, from drug cartels and arms dealers to tax evaders and fugitive diamond merchants, according to a report released Sunday by an international news organization.

HSBC is among a handful of banks to face criminal prosecution in recent years for its role in a Swiss banking system that allowed depositors to conceal their identities, and in many cases dodge taxes or launder ill-gotten cash. The report, prepared by the Washington-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, revealed for the first time the massive sweep of HSBC’s private-banking arm as of 2007, when it controlled $100 billion in assets and served a swath of wealthy depositors from the elite to the illicit. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

DATA

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb: 12.4 (est 3; prev 0.9)

Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jan: 98 (est 97; rev prev 97)

SNB Sight Deposits Feb-06: 384.9B (prev 383.3B)

Greek Industrial Production (YoY) Dec: -3.80% (rev prev 2.50%)

Swedish Household Consumption (MoM) Dec: -1.30% (rev prev 0.50%)

Dutch Manufacturing Production (YoY) Dec: -2.80% rev (prev 0.20%)

 

GOVERNMENT/ CENTRAL BANK NEWS & COMMENTARY

US CBO Estimates $19 Bln Jan Govt Deficit Vs $10 Bln Deficit Jan'14

US Tsy's Lew: US Economy Has Turned Corner, More Wage Growth Needed

The Fed's Republican Tries Talking Republicans Out Of 'Audit The Fed'

EU's Juncker Tells Greek PM: Don't Assume Euro Zone Will Accept Your Plans

Greece PM Defies EU Pressure, Sticks To Pre-Election Promises

Greek FinMin Varoufakis Says Euro Will Collapse If Greece Exits

UK Chancellor Osborne: Planning For Possible Grexit

BoE's Carney Says Worried About Financial Reform Fatigue Globally

OECD Warns On Reform Slowdown

German CDU Party's Fuchs Says 'We Are Prepared For Grexit'

Bank Of Italy Boosts GDP Growth Estimates On ECB Measures

Italy's Padoan Says Europe Should Be Bolder In Boosting Investments

Abbott Defeats Challenge, Yet Leadership Speculation Lingers

BoJ's Morimoto: Watch Various Price Data, Not Just Oil Prices

 

GOVERNMENT/ BOND NEWS & COMMENTARY

Greek Bond Yields Spike As Tsipras' Speech Sounds Alarm

Germany Sold EUR1.895 Bln In 6-Month Bills (avg yield -0.209%; bid cover 2.6)

 

EQUITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

US Stock Futures Fall As Bears End Hibernation

Grexit, China Growth Fears Weigh On European Assets

China Stocks Fall Further On Bad Data Surprise

China's First Stock Options Trading Debuts In Shanghai

Loews Profit From Continuing Operations Falls 13 Pct

Hasbro Reports Revenue, Operating Profit And Net Earnings Growth For FY 2014

HSBC Admits Swiss Bank Failings Over Client Taxes

HSBC Board Announces Quarterly Dividend Of $0.3875 Per ADS

US Banks Say Soaring Dollar Puts Them At Disadvantage

VW's Audi Has Record January Sales, Beats Mercedes

Carrefour Says CEO Recovering From Surgery

Credit Suisse To Launch Speciality Finance Company ? WSJ

 

CURRENCY/ COMMODITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

GBP/USD Almost Unchanged In Quiet Trade

EUR/USD: Euro Trims Gains, Remains Above $1.13

USD/JPY: Yen Ticks Higher Amid Risk-Off Trades On ?Grexit? Fears

Gold Futures Edge Higher Amid Greece Jitters

Copper Edges Higher After Chinese Data, Nickel Down As Stocks Rise

Oil Dips After Weak Chinese Trade Data

OPEC Cuts Forecast For US Oil-Supply Growth After Price Rout

 

EMERGING MARKET NEWS & COMMENTARY

Politics, US Yields Weigh On EMs, Naira Hits New Low

China's Imports Slump, Capping Dismal January Trade Performance

China Hikes Retail Fuel Prices, First In Eight Months

Russia Inflation Shock No Reason To Raise Rates, Nabiullina Says

Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks To Open Wednesday In Belarus

Economists See Zero Growth In Brazil In 2015 ? Poll 

 

Frontrunning: February 10

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  • Greek defense minister says Greece has Plan B if EU rigid on deal (Reuters)
  • Germany rejects Greek claim for World War Two reparations (Reuters)
  • Greece to Seek $11.3 Billion in Financing to Avoid Funding Crunch (BBG)
  • Lazard Sees $113 Billion Greek Debt Cut as ‘Reasonable’ (BBG)
  • U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia (BBG)
  • As U.S. Exits, China Takes On Afghanistan Role (WSJ)
  • EU money funds cut exposure to bank debt (FT)
  • Dalio’s Bridgewater Fund Said to Rise 8.3% in January (BBG)
  • Oil-Price Rebound Predicted (WSJ)
  • U.S. Is Seeking Felony Pleas by Big Banks in Foreign Currency Inquiry (NYT)
  • China Inflation Drops to Five-Year Low in January (WSJ)
  • Top Turkish judge warns of judiciary becoming "instrument of revenge" (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Begins Offensive Against Rebels While U.S. Weighs Arms Aid (BBG)
  • Central Bankers Bash ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill (WSJ)
  • China Injects Funds Into Financial System (WSJ)
  • Egypt’s Currency War: The Devaluation Eclipsed by Russia, Brazil (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Qualcomm Inc said it will pay a $975 million fine as part of a long-awaited settlement with Chinese antitrust authorities, which also includes several changes to Qualcomm's practices in licensing patents for mobile phones sold in China. (http://on.wsj.com/1CbY9Ir)

* McDonald's Corp said continued steep declines in same-store sales in Japan and China in January outweighed a slight improvement in the U.S., extending the slump that has roiled the fast-food company. (http://on.wsj.com/1y3hbOR)

* Cathy Engelbert was named as the new chief executive of Deloitte LLP, effective March 11. The 50-year-old becomes one of the most senior women in the financial-services industry, which in some areas trails behind other sectors in promoting women to high-level positions. (http://on.wsj.com/1KBC3oY)

* Members of the United Auto Workers union have ratified a four-year contract with truck maker Navistar International Corp that will provide workers with a combination of wage increases and bonuses, while maintaining a two-tier wage scale for new hires and veteran employees. (http://on.wsj.com/1A7SgAO)

* Three Federal Reserve officials criticized proposed legislation to expand congressional oversight of the central bank's interest-rate decisions, pushing back against the bill as it is gaining attention. Fed governor Jerome Powell called the bill, known to supporters as "Audit the Fed," misguided. (http://on.wsj.com/1COauaX)

 

FT

Two Singaporean shipbuilders - Keppel Corporation and Sembcorp Marine - and three other Brazilian shipbuilders have been accused of corruption and participating in a bribe-for-contracts scheme at Brazil state-owned oil group Petrobras.

Towergate is considering appointing David Ross - who is currently leading New York-based rival Arthur J Gallagher - as its new CEO. The UK-based insurance broker has been without a leader since October and has 1 billion pounds ($1.52 billion) in debt.

Chinese developer Dalian Wanda has won an auction to acquire sports rights agency Infront Media for 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) from private equity group Bridgepoint. Infront Media is owned by the nephew of FIFA President Sepp Blatter.

Vistara - an airline joint venture setup by India's Tata Group and Singapore Airlines aims to go beyond ferrying passengers domestically and wants to feed India's rapidly growing appetite for international travel.

 

NYT

* Governor of Illinois Bruce Rauner, the newly elected Republican who has often criticized public sector unions, took his first step toward curbing their power by announcing an executive order that would bar unions from requiring all state workers to pay the equivalent of dues. (http://nyti.ms/1Dzs9Cq)

* Chipmaker Qualcomm Inc said it would pay $975 million for violating China's antimonopoly law. As part of the deal, Qualcomm will also offer its licenses for third- and fourth-generation communications systems for high-speed wireless data to smartphones, at a sharp discount to what it charges companies elsewhere. (http://nyti.ms/1uybX28)

* The Justice Department is pushing some of the biggest banks on Wall Street, including, for the first time in decades, American institutions to plead guilty to criminal charges that they manipulated the prices of foreign currencies. (http://nyti.ms/1AdRsc1)

* Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Bank of Russia, views the Ruble's steep drop as a painful but necessary step to wean the nation off imports. (http://nyti.ms/1AdTFEl)

* Critical elements of Puerto Rico's plan to avert financial disaster are in jeopardy, after a federal judge struck down a law that allowed the government to restructure certain debts. (http://nyti.ms/1COfMmJ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Auto investment soared in Mexico last year and light vehicle production topped three million for the first time, underscoring Canada's decline to junior-partner status in North American Free Trade Agreement when it comes to the auto industry. (http://bit.ly/1z3CeC9)

** Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper shook up his foreign policy team with a mini-shuffle that moves his most valuable lieutenant Jason Kenney to Defence as the date approaches for Canada to decide on extending the politically sensitive military mission in Iraq. (http://bit.ly/1zFF3wZ)

** Ontario Provincial Police will question Premier Kathleen Wynne as part of the criminal investigation into bribery allegations against one of her top aides. The move comes after officers accused Wynne's deputy chief of staff for breaking anti-corruption laws by offering a former Liberal candidate a government job in exchange for dropping out of the Sudbury by-election race. (http://bit.ly/1Deb6p4)

NATIONAL POST

** Plans for a new no-frills airline are in flux after Canada Jetlines Ltd scrapped a proposed C$50 million ($40 million) IPO, but the company's president said a new deal is in the works. The company said on Friday that a reverse takeover deal with a capital-pool company called Inovent Capital Inc had been abandoned. (http://bit.ly/1zr8FJO)

** Queen's University says Melody Torcolacci, a professor who has come under fire for teaching anti-vaccination materials, will not lead the course in question for the rest of the term. The university had made headlines last week when a PowerPoint presentation from Torcolacci's first-year class showed what looked like a heavy anti-vaccination focus in her teaching. (http://bit.ly/1Ccwqau)

** Aboriginals who were adopted into white families during the 1960s "Scoop" are suing the federal government for the loss of their culture and emotional trauma. Almost 1,200 adoptees have filed a class-action lawsuit in Saskatchewan, seeking compensation from Ottawa for "cultural genocide". (http://bit.ly/1KIcbGh)

 

Hong Kong

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

-- The growth in the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong will slow down this year after a robust increase in 2014, the Tourism Board is predicting, while it noted that spending last year by tourists, excluding day-trippers, fell for the first time in a decade. (bit.ly/1zQNPHp)

-- Guangdong saw its slowest economic growth in a quarter of a century last year, with three main indicators failing to reach their targets. The province's economy grew 7.8 percent last year, and was short of the targeted 8.5 percent, as investment, exports and consumption had lost momentum, according to governor Zhu Xiaodan. (bit.ly/1M7HjT4)

THE STANDARD

-- Hong Kong Disneyland Resort recorded a golden year in 2014, reaping HK$332 million ($42.82 million) in profit, up 36 percent from 2013 due to a rise in per capita guest spending and an increase in visitor numbers. (bit.ly/193w8vA)

-- Hong Kong could be heading for an acute shortage of the H3N2 flu vaccine, which will mean a priority system for people needing jabs. For health authorities have been able to only order between 80,000 and 100,000 bit.ly/1DZQajDdoses - 70 percent less than last year's order of 260,000 to 280,000 - and they will not arrive until at least April. ()

-- Clothing retail chain I.T Limited will bid for a plot of land in Kunshan in Jiangsu province, hoping to set up its first logistics and distribution center for HK$372 million. The firm is leasing several warehouses in mainland cities and facing long-term rental pressure, said chairman Sham Kar-wai. (bit.ly/1y1ODVH)

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

-- Sun Hung Kai Properties said it would invest HK$7 billion ($902.86 million) in a residential development project in Tin Shui Wai awarded by MTR Corp after the develper beat three other consortiums in the tender.

-- Home appliances retailer GOME Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd said it has signed a 20 billion yuan purchase order with Haier Group, parent of Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd. Some 16 billion yuan is targetted to be from offline stores sales and 4 billion yuan from online sales.

HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES

-- Chinese developer Greenland Hong Kong Holdings Ltd said its sales rose three times year on year last year to 12.9 billion yuan ($2.07 billion). It expects sales to increase to 18 billion yuan in 2015.

 

Britain

The Times

A former government minister and the ex-head of Revenue & Customs face being called before MPs to explain how Britons were able to hide 135 million pounds ($205.52 million) in the Swiss branch of HSBC without facing criminal sanctions. (http://thetim.es/1vAWhw8)

Thousands of British motorists caught speeding on the Continent could be tracked down and fined in the UK under new European Union legislation. (http://thetim.es/1zQNjZU)

The Guardian

HSBC was fighting an international firestorm on Monday over revelations that its Swiss private bank helped clients conceal undeclared accounts and provided services to criminals and corrupt businessmen. (http://bit.ly/16Mbgra)

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has urged the G20 to mount a big push to implement global regulatory reforms, fearing that governments may be tiring of nonstop rule-making since the financial crisis six years ago. (http://bit.ly/1zqHEpU)

The Telegraph

One of the richest men in Thailand, Dhanin Chearavanont, has approached Tesco Plc about a multi-billion pound deal to buy its business in the country. (http://bit.ly/16IJBHc)

The Co-operative Pharmacy brand is to disappear after more than 70 years as part of a revamp of the high street chain by its new owners. (http://bit.ly/1zQPpcd)

Sky News

A report says HSBC's Swiss arm helped wealthy customers avoid tax, months after Indian elections focused on battling tax evasion. (http://bit.ly/1uxlNRU)

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has called on regulators to intervene after accusing firms offering free product trials of taking its customers for a ride. (http://bit.ly/1IGVSO5)

The Independent

A police force was forced to apologise today after one of its officers told a newsagent to hand over the names of four people after they bought a commemorative edition of the Charlie Hebdo magazine. (http://ind.pn/1CLVUAL)

The new privacy policy for Samsung Electronics Co Ltd's smart TVs allows the company and its partners to listen in on everything their users say. The policy has drawn the ire of internet users, who compared it with George Orwell's dystopian fiction 1984. (http://ind.pn/1Dx7Khb)

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
NFIB small business optimism index for January at 9:00--consensus 101.0
Wholesale trade inventories for December at 10:00--consensus up 0.2%
JOLTS job openings for December at 10:00--consensus 4.99M

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Citi (C) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
CoreSite Realty (COR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
CyberArk (CYBR) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
Equity Residential (EQR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Hasbro (HAS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
St. Jude Medical (STJ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
TECO Energy (TE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

Downgrades

AES Corp. (AES) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
American Campus (ACC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Approach Resources (AREX) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Miller Tabak
Bruker (BRKR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
EPR Properties (EPR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Fifth Street Finance (FSC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Fifth Street Finance (FSC) downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho
Golub Capital (GBDC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Masco (MAS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners
Masco (MAS) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
SPX Corp. (SPW) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Transocean (RIG) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Initiations

AmTrust (AFSI) initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
Cempra (CEMP) initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital
County Bancorp (ICBK) initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird
Hain Celestial (HAIN) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
Insmed (INSM) initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital
Leju (LEJU) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Old Line Bancshares (OLBK) initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird
Patriot National (PN) initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
Patriot National (PN) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Patriot National (PN) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Patriot National (PN) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Pernix Therapeutics (PTX) initiated with a Buy at Cantor
Primerica (PRI) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Stifel Financial (SF) initiated with a Buy at Evercore ISI
Unilife (UNIS) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray

COMPANY NEWS

Qualcomm (QCOM) confirmed settlement in China, to pay $975M fine
Gap (GPS) reported January SSS down 3%
Aeropostale (ARO) announced that Marc Miller, EVP and CFO, has been appointed EVP and COO. The company also said that David Dick will join the company as SVP and CFO on February 17
UBS (UBS) said SEC, NY AG investigating sales of unregistered securities
GNC Holdings (GNC) refuted claims made by the New York State Attorney General in his February 2 letter with original test results and the results of retesting that was performed on the product lots cited in the letter

EARNINGS
Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Wyndham (WYN), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), RetailMeNot (SALE), Globe Specialty Metals (GSM), Full Circle Capital (FULL), Horace Mann (HMN), Yodlee (YDLE), INTL FCStone (INTL), AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG), Inphi (IPHI), Brixmor (BRX), Comstock Resources (CRK), Compass Minerals (CMP), CSC (CSC), Newport (NEWP), Meru Networks (MERU), ICU Medical (ICUI), MaxLinear (MXL), Model N (MODN), GigOptix (GIG), Primerica (PRI), Premier (PINC), Waste Connections (WCN), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Cascade Microtech (CSCD), ESCO Technologies (ESE), Danaos (DAC), Montpelier Re (MRH), RealD (RLD), Qualys (QLYS)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Regeneron (REGN), Genesee & Wyoming (GWR), Talisman Energy (TLM), NGL Energy Partners (NGL), Otter Tail (OTTR), Albany International (AIN), Dun & Bradstreet (DNB), Good Times Restaurants (GTIM), Argo Group (AGII), KapStone (KS), Orion Energy (OESX), CM Finance (CMFN), Selectica (SLTC), Coupons.com (COUP), Unilife (UNIS), First Marblehead (FMD), Neurocrine (NBIX), Allison Transmission (ALSN), Arrowhead (ARWR), Blue Capital (BCRH)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Allot Communications (ALLT), Crown Holdings (CCK), Liberator Medical (LBMH), Silver Spring (SSNI)

Greenbrier (GBX) backs FY15 EPS view $5.20-$5.50, consensus $5.42
Qualcomm (QCOM) raises FY15 EPS view to $4.85-$5.05 from $4.75-$5.05
Gap (GPS) raises Q4 EPS view to 73c-74c, consensus 68c, raises FY14 EPS view to $2.86-$2.87, consensus $2.76
Aeropostale (ARO) sees Q4 EPS (6c)-(1c), consensus (27c)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) reports Q4 revenue $1.01B, consensus $997.69M

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Disney's (DIS) Marvel, Sony (SNE) agree on Spider-Man movie production, WSJ reports
Telefonica (TEF) undecided on response to AT&T's (T) Mexico push, Financial Times says
IBM (IBM) files lawsuit against Priceline (PCLN) over patent royalties, Bloomberg reports
Samsung (SSNLF), Microsoft (MSFT) settle Android patent payment dispute, Re/code reports
Apple (AAPL) planning debut bond sale in Swiss francs, WSJ reports
Ireland may reject IAG (ICAGY) offer for Aer Lingus, Bloomberg says (BAIRY)

SYNDICATE

Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA) files to sell 3M shares of common stock
Avenue Financial (AVNU) 2.5M share IPO priced at $11.00
Biocept (BIOC) 8M share Secondary priced at $1.25
Ensign Group (ENSG) files to sell 2.5M shares of common stock
Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ) files to sell 800,992 shares of Class A common
Idera Pharmaceuticals (IDRA) files to sell $75M in common stock
RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) files to sell ADS shares, no amount given
Rose Rock Midstream (RRMS) files to sell 2M common units representing limited partners
Teva (TEVA) files automatic mixed securities shelf

Market Wrap: Whirlwind Manic-Depressive Session Sees Futures Slide Then Surge

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So far it has been an overnight session which clearly forgot to take its Lexapro, with futures first tumbling after CNBC's "leak" that a Greek deal had been reached was refuted, only to surge subsequently on both the Riskbank's foray into NIRP and QE which crushed the Swedish currency and sent its stocks to recorder highs, and more importantly, on the latest ceasefire out of Minsk which has pushed Russian and European assets substantially higher. While only the most naive believe that any palpable end to Ukraine hostilities will emerge as a result of today's delay, expect for Greek headlines to return with a vengeance as today it is Tsipras' turn to speak at a summit of the 28 European Union leaders set to begin momentarily.

For now, however, the algos have been delighted to forget the latest Greek disappointment and focus on the utopia that central planners have in mind, if only for the 1%, and send US equity futures surging, and on pace to resume their grind higher to all time highs.

Looking at specific regions, Asian equity markets trade mixed after following suit from a lacklustre Wall Street close, which saw the S&P 500 finish relatively flat. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) outperformed bolstered by yesterday’s sharp fall in JPY which prompted the index to briefly break above the 18,000 level for the first time this year. Elsewhere, both the Hang Seng (+0.44%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.50%) fluctuated between gains and losses, with a rally in the telecoms sector helping overcome weakness across energy stocks, amid yesterday’s oil price slump.

The Eurogroup meeting on Greece failed to come to a meaningful conclusion last night and whilst this was expected amid ongoing tensions, the lack of cooperation between the two parties saw equity futures open lower this morning. However this trend reversed at the open of the cash markets, with stock specific news, such as positive earnings from the likes of Renault (+9.4%) and Credit Suisse (+9.6%), pushing European indices higher.

Sentiment was further bolstered through the morning after a technical break in the DAX future, where a spike took out stops out through the high before the EUREX close yesterday (10800) and the high on Tuesday’s session (10816). The move higher also prompted rumours of a deal being brokered between Greece and the Eurogroup, however these reports were not based on any information of substance. Another contributing factor has been Russia's President Putin stated that a cease-fire has been agreed with Ukraine and is to start on Sunday (15th Feb).

Elsewhere, Gilts (-60 ticks) are underperforming in fixed income markets on the back of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report, while T-Notes and Bunds are also lower, partially due to equity strength, with US traders await the final Treasury auction of the week in the form of USD 16bln in a 30yr note.

In FX, markets have seen abnormal volatility today, with the key event being the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report in which the MPC members revised down their short term CPI forecasts as a consequence of the fall in oil prices however stated that they expect inflation to rise back above the 2% target in the 2 year horizon. Other factors of the report that were perceived to be hawkish were that both growth and wages are set to increase and spare capacity will be eliminated within 18 months, compared to a forecast of 2-3 years at the last report. This saw GBP/USD climb above 1.5300 to mark the pairs highest level of the week while the EUR/GBP cross trades at 7 year lows.

Elsewhere, SEK weakened aggressively on the back of an unexpected 10bps rate cut from the Riksbank to -0.10%, after 12 of the 18 surveyed predicted that rates would be held. The announcement also saw the central bank state that they are to buy SEK 10bln of government bonds further exacerbating the weakness in the currency. Meanwhile, JPY strengthened this morning after comments from sources claiming that the BoJ thinks any additional stimulus will be 'counter-productive', which saw USD/JPY fall by over 60 pips in an initial fast money move to break back below the 120.00 level.

Finally, looking at commodities, oil prices have been strengthening during this morning’s session, aided by the weakening USD (-0.3%) to rebound from the lows yesterday, which saw WTI crude futures fall below the USD 50.00 handle after DoE inventories showed a larger build than expected (4868K vs. Exp. 3750K, Prev. 6333K).

Elsewhere, the metals complex sees gold experiencing a mild gain amid continued Greece concerns with prices remaining near 5 week lows after USD strength pressured the precious metal yesterday. Elsewhere, silver prices were notably lower amid technical selling with spot prices breaking below both the 50 DMA (USD 16.76/oz) and 100 DMA (USD 16.72/oz). JP Morgan sees gold falling by year end because of stronger USD, low inflation and low commodity prices however it may see some support on geo-political risks and seasonal demand. JPM think palladium and platinum looks cheap and palladium could be the best performer this year.

On today's calendar, we get the retail sales print for January with the market expecting more energy related weakness at the headline. Jobless claims data is also due up and it’ll be interesting to see if the four-week average stays below 300k. Finally business inventories rounds off today’s releases.

Bulletin Headline Summary

  • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire helps boost sentiment around Europe after Greek stalemate overnight
  • GBP spikes higher as the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report had a hawkish tone with growth and wages set to rise and slack in the economy to be eliminated faster than previously forecasted
  • Looking ahead, out of the US today we have Advanced Retail Sales, weekly jobless data and a host of earnings, including AIG
  • Treasuries fall, 30Y yields rise for sixth day before before quarterly refunding concludes with $16b long bonds; WI bid yield 2.63%, second lowest on record, vs record- low 2.43% award in January.
  • USTs in mid-January began a seasonally bearish period lasting into the May refunding; 10Y yields breaking above 2% could target 2.08%, then 2.19% near term, ED&F Man head of rates and credit Tom di Galoma writes in note
  • The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France agreed on a cease-fire to stem the conflict that’s devastated eastern Ukraine and triggered the worst crisis in more than 20 years between Russia and its former Cold War foes
  • EU leaders will take up the baton on Greece when they gather in Brussels today after finance ministers postponed decisions on country’s future financing until next week
  • Greek lenders have almost exhausted Emergency Liquidity Assistance they received from the European Central Bank via the Bank of Greece, Skai Television reports in its evening news bulletin, without saying how it got the information
  • Sweden’s central bank cut its main rate below zero and unveiled additional measures designed to jolt the largest Nordic economy out of a deflationary spiral
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled rates may increase faster than investors had anticipated as Britain’s economy gathers pace
  • Bank of Japan policy makers view further monetary easing to shore up inflation as a counterproductive step for now, amid concern it could trigger declines in the yen that damage confidence, people familiar with the talks said
  • The number of energy jobs cut globally have climbed well above 100,000 as once-bustling oil hubs in Scotland, Australia and Brazil, among other countries, empty out, according to Swift Worldwide Resources, a staffing firm
  • Kaisa Group Holdings bonds slid after co. said lenders and bondholders “should not expect payments of principal and interest according to existing terms”
  • Sovereign yields mostly lower; Greece 10Y falls ~23bps. Asian, European stocks gain, U.S. equity-index futures higher. Brent and WTI higher, gold and copper gain

US Economic Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales, Jan., est. -0.4% (prior -0.9%)
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto, Jan., est. -0.5% (prior -1%)
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior -0.3%)
    • Retail Sales Control Group, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior -0.4%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb. 7, est. 287k (prior 278k); Continuing Claims, Jan. 31, est. 2.4m (prior 2.4m)
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey, Feb; 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb. 8 (prior 45.5)
  • 10:00am: Business Inventories, Dec., est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)

Hoping to make some more sense of the overnight depressive euphoria is DB's Jim Reid with his overnight recap

There may also be some sleepless nights ahead for European leaders after a stalemate yesterday after a late session and hours of talks at the Eurogroup meeting. The result largely lived up to our expectations with both Greece and Eurozone finance ministers failing to agree on an outcome. Instead, talks now move onto Monday’s Eurogroup meeting. The lack of any material outcome was summed up in a very short press conference shortly after in which both Greece and the Euro officials failed to agree on a joint statement – the Greek side rejecting language that might be seen as agreeing to an extension of the current programme. Head of the Eurogroup finance ministers Dijesslbloem said in the press conference after that ‘we covered a lot of ground but didn’t actually reach a joint conclusion on how to take the next steps’ and that ‘there has to be political agreement on the way forward’. Varoufakis meanwhile was quoted in the Greek press Ekathimerini shortly after the meeting as saying that ‘we explained why this bailout is not working’ and that ‘we want a new contract with Europe’.

Our resident expert George Saravelos believes that irrespective of today’s outcome, we now have some more visibility over how Monday could potentially play out. On the one hand Europe is offering a technical extension of the existing program and on the hand Greece is looking for maximum flexibility and the least amount of up-front commitments attached to completing the program review. George still believes that an agreement to move forward should be achievable but that successful completion in agreeing on the terms will be a close call given the large distance still clearly between Greece and European officials. Of course, failure to agree on moving forward on Monday or a deadlock will shift focus to next Wednesday’s ELA review by the ECB, where, in the event of failure we could see the ECB become more explicit on timing of potential ELA withdrawal.

The other focus last night was the Ukraine and Russia talks and as we go to print reports are breaking that leaders from France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine are set to sign an agreement according to Reuters. The talks have gone on for most of the night but the early signs appear to be positive and we are expecting a conference imminently. Staying on the Ukraine, we also heard from the IMF’s Lagarde yesterday who was quoted on Bloomberg saying that the IMF is ‘very close’ to a bailout agreement for Ukraine. An official announcement is expected this morning at 9am CET.

With the outcome of the meeting coming after close in the US, markets this morning have rebounded off the early weakness from the Greece news and bourses are trading firmer as we type – reflecting the breaking headlines from the Ukraine talks. The Hang Seng (+0.45%), Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) and Nikkei (+1.53%) are all firmer – the latter in part benefiting from strong machine orders data – whilst bourses in Taiwan and Korea have also rebounded off the day’s lows in recent moments. The Euro is 0.2% weaker versus the Dollar in trading this morning, having initially swung around last night with various headlines.

Before the Eurogroup meeting yesterday, markets were subdued in the US with the S&P 500 eventually closing unchanged on what turned out to be the third lowest volume day this year. The index did in fact trade as low as -0.5% intraday before paring losses into the close. It did cross into positive territory briefly as headlines over Greece began to emerge from the Eurogroup meeting. Energy stocks (-0.66%) declined as oil markets fell for a second consecutive day. WTI (-2.36%) and Brent (-3.14%) fell to $48.84/bbl and $54.66/bbl respectively after the latest IEA report which showed crude supplies rising to record levels once again last week. The earlier hopes of US production cuts do appear to have been put to one side for now.

Treasuries were also quiet up until the Eurogroup headlines started to leak. Although the 10y benchmark yield closed 2bps wider at 2.018%, the yield did at one point touch an intraday low of 1.969% during the meeting. Meanwhile the Dollar ended the day unchanged with the DXY having earlier traded some +0.36% firmer before declining in the last hour of trading. Data-wise it was quiet with just the monthly budget statement for January which saw a smaller than expected deficit at $17.5bn (vs. expectations of a deficit of $19bn). Fedspeak caught the eye once more however. The Dallas Fed’s Fisher was quoted on Bloomberg with regards to raising rates saying that ‘I wanted it to happen in March, and I lost the argument’.

It was a similar subdued picture in Europe earlier in the day. The Stoxx 600 finished the day 0.24% weaker whilst the DAX (-0.02%) finished more or less unchanged. Credit markets also closed generally flat. Greek assets were notably weaker in the lead up to the meeting however with Greek equities closing 4% weaker and 3y yields widening some 130bps. With little in the way of data, the market appeared to be in something of a wait and see mode for Greece. 10y Bund yields finished 1.5bps tighter at 0.353% and Spanish and Italian yields were 2-4bps wider. The Euro meanwhile finished 0.13% firmer at $1.1335 however in reality it bounced around with the end of day headlines. Elsewhere, having highlighted some examples of record low yields in recent reports, Switzerland yesterday sold CHF 10y bonds at a yield of just 0.011% - the lowest of any country on record.

It’s a busier day data wise today as the calendar picks up. The final inflation reading for Germany will likely be the highlight this morning with the market expecting a -0.3% yoy headline print. Industrial production for the Euro-area will also be worth keeping an eye on and we also get the BoE inflation report out of the UK and the Riksbank monetary policy decision. In the US this afternoon we’ve got the retail sales print for January with the market expecting more energy related weakness at the headline. Jobless claims data is also due up and it’ll be interesting to see if the four-week average stays below 300k. Finally business inventories rounds off today’s releases.

Frontrunning: February 12

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  • 'Glimmer of hope' for Ukraine after deal at Minsk peace summit (Reuters)
  • Ruble Rebounds, Russian Stocks Surge on Ukraine Cease-Fire Deal (BBG)
  • Greek PM Tsipras in Brussels as clock ticks on EU bailout (Reuters)
  • Emerging-Market Currencies Rout Not Over for Traders (BBG)
  • Little noticed, new Saudi king shapes contours of power (Reuters)
  • In Wake of Financial Crisis, Goldman Goes It Alone (WSJ)
  • AmEx Is Losing Its Millionaires (BBG)
  • Thousands to Lose Health Insurance Over Residency Questions (WSJ)
  • Carney Signals Faster U.K. Rate Increases as Economy Strengthens (BBG) ... yes, any minute now
  • Benefit of ECB’s Bond Buying: Fiscal Breathing Room (WSJ)
  • Chinese Maker of Drone on White House Lawn Sees Sales Doubling (BBG)
  • U.S. gunman kills three young Muslims; motive disputed (Reuters)
  • Blackstone to Buy Stake in New York Office Portfolio (WSJ)
  • Greek Economic Tragedy Sets Scene for Varoufakis on Debt (BBG)

 

Bulletin Headline Summary

WSJ

* President Barack Obama asked Congress for new powers to wage military operations against the Islamic State militant group, kicking off a renewed national debate over the scope of wartime powers that should be afforded to the commander-in-chief. (http://on.wsj.com/1vELile)

* The Obama administration is cutting off health-insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act for 200,000 people who haven't proved they are legally residing in the United States (http://on.wsj.com/1vmaasm)

* Thanks to a consistently soaring dollar, and plunging euro, investment funds focused on currencies had the best month in years in January. (http://on.wsj.com/1KLEVQk)

* Bank of America used its government-backed U.S. banking subsidiary to finance controversial trades that helped hedge funds and other clients avoid taxes. (http://on.wsj.com/1CjrWPw)

* General Electric Co opened the door for its investors to get a seat on the company's board. GE said it would begin allowing groups of shareholders to put forth nominees to the board, provided the candidates' backers own at least 3 percent of GE shares for at least three years. (http://on.wsj.com/1KLF5ah)

* Tesla Motor Inc's CEO predicted brighter days in 2015, but its fourth-quarter loss widened, as deliveries of its luxury electric cars fell short of a reduced forecast due to weather and customers unable to accept deliveries. (http://on.wsj.com/19b2vZn)

* South Korea's antitrust agency said Thursday it is considering an investigation into whether Qualcomm Inc misused its dominant market position, in the latest complication to how the U.S. chip maker licenses or sells its technology to overseas clients. (http://on.wsj.com/19b2CE2)

 

FT

In its annual supplier responsibility report, iPhone-maker Apple Inc said employees of its suppliers worked more overtime to realise what is the company's most profitable quarter in its history. The company also said that it has drastically reduced the usage of conflict minerals, such as tin and gold, that come from warlord-controlled parts of mineral-rich Africa.

Facebook Inc will launch a social network for cyber security professionals to share information about threats that could lead to potential attacks. The world's largest social network is also teaming up with Yahoo Inc and Pinterest for this project.

If Ukraine goes ahead with its widely expected move to limit private sector creditors - as part of bailout terms laid out by the International Monetary Fund - bond manager Michael Hasenstab is poised to lose the most, as he owns more than $7 billion of Ukrainian debt. Hasenstab is known for his contrarian moves, which have earned him big rewards in the past.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles chief Sergio Marchionne said that carmakers that are reluctant to merge will be forced to do so as they come under attack from activist investors. "At first many boards will try to defend themselves with lawyers and bankers, but ultimately they will have to come to the table to discuss a merger with either us or other large competitors," said Marchionne.

 

NYT

* Higher demand in Asia, difficult weather in the major cocoa-producing countries in West Africa and attacks of fungus are contributing to the price increases. (http://nyti.ms/1vm0Zbb)

* The Obama administration accused China of providing illegal export subsidies to critical industries, flexing its muscle on trade as it presses Congress to expand President Obama's authority to secure major trade accords. (http://nyti.ms/1uENt7G)

* Eurozone finance ministers failed to narrow their deep differences with Greece on Wednesday over how to keep the country from running out of money as it tries to revise the terms of its bailout. (http://nyti.ms/17jXixH)

* The White House passed a bill approving construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, setting up a confrontation with President Obama, who has vowed to veto the measure. (http://nyti.ms/1B0p8LD)

* Jet.com, a soon-to-start online marketplace that aims to loosen Amazon's grip on e-commerce, said it had raised $140 million in a new round of funding. The investment, led by Bain Capital Ventures, values the company at almost $600 million, according to people briefed on the funding round. (http://nyti.ms/1IYeNEl)

* The chief executive of Britain's tax agency was questioned by politicians over leaked documents that describe how HSBC's Swiss private banking arm helped clients, including politicians, rock stars and dealers of illicit diamonds, hide billions of dollars before 2007. (http://nyti.ms/1vG53ZJ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Canada launched a flurry of last-minute diplomacy in the lead-up to Thursday's retrial of jailed Canadian journalist Mohamed Fahmy in Cairo. Staff from the Prime Minister's office called the Egyptian ambassador in to discuss Fahmy's case in Ottawa on Tuesday, and an Egyptian government official said Canada's ambassador to Egypt met with that country's public prosecutor on Wednesday. (http://bit.ly/1zNWWd9)

** Premier Jim Prentice told Albertans on Wednesday that they need to wake up and face a world of low oil prices, as his Finance Minister announced there would be a 9 percent cut to government programs in a budget expected next month. (http://bit.ly/1FBqJXe)

NATIONAL POST

** Walmart Canada, the country's biggest mass merchant will build two new supercentres this fiscal year, bringing its Canadian store total to 396 locations from 394. The company said it will spend about C$340 million ($269 million ) on new building and store renovation projects as it continues to shore up its position as a purveyor of groceries. (http://bit.ly/1CgAZDc)

** More than 3,000 workers at Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd represented by Teamsters Canada will strike as early as Sunday morning if a negotiated settlement isn't reached with the railroad before then. The strike would not only cut into the company's earnings but also have the potential to create transportation chaos across the country. (http://bit.ly/1vFtQx8)

** A Muslim woman is asking to be sworn in as a Canadian citizen as soon as possible while wearing a niqab, even as the Harper government considers appealing a court ruling overturning its policy requiring women to remove face coverings while reciting the oath. (http://bit.ly/1AemCSl)

** Rob Ford was ordered to leave a city council meeting Wednesday after he twice refused to apologize for suggesting that staff had deliberately misled councillors about the cost of a promotional trip to Italy. (http://bit.ly/1uI4ygN)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) plans to inspect 26 centrally-administered state-owned enterprises after the Lunar New Year, Wang Qishan, the head of China's anti-corruption watchdog, said during an internal meeting on Wednesday. This would be the first round of disciplinary inspections this year.

- Seventeen companies that will launch initial public offerings (IPOs) in Shanghai and Shenzhen will lock up 1.5 trillion yuan ($240.30 billion) this week, the paper reported, citing estimates from local financial institutions.

SECURITIES TIMES

- The market-oriented registration system for China's IPO market is likely to be launched on June 1, reported the paper, citing a source familiar with the issue.

CHINA DAILY

- To comprehensively promote the rule of law in a nation of 1.3 billion people is equivalent to launching a sweeping and profound revolution, and to promote the rule of law is to further consolidate the Communist Party's leadership, an editorial said.

GLOBAL TIMES

- Various forces in China and the United States should cherish the good momentum created by Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama, who plan to meet in September and work to forge a new type of major-power relationship, an editorial said.

Britain

The Times

Millions of council houses would be "given away" to low-paid workers under Tory plans to reward people who come off benefits. (http://thetim.es/1Aoy6RL)

The Conservatives could capture 11 of 15 Liberal Democrat seats in the southwest, according to analysis by a leading pollster, as David Cameron seeks to capitalise on the weakness of his coalition partners. (http://thetim.es/1KNxKFp)

The Guardian

David Cameron stood accused by Ed Miliband of acting as a "dodgy prime minister" after he repeatedly failed in the House of Commons to say whether he had discussed tax avoidance at HSBC Holdings Plc with Stephen Green before appointing him as trade minister in 2011. (http://bit.ly/1EbWk0p)

House prices rose in January at the slowest pace in two years across England and Wales, finds a housing market survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. (http://bit.ly/1DH8kJz)

The Telegraph

Talks over Greece's debt crisis appeared stuck in limbo on Wednesday, as European finance ministers meeting in Brussels refused to give ground over the terms of the Athens bail-out. (http://bit.ly/1zXGPZp)

Sky faced questions from the City on Wednesday about the heavy price it paid to maintain Premier League superiority over BT Group Plc in a rights auction that beat even the highest inflation predictions. (http://bit.ly/16VsrH1)

Sky News

A Conservative Party treasurer has hit back at a suggestion by Labour leader Ed Miliband that he was involved in "tax avoidance activities". (http://bit.ly/1EbOSlY)

Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, used a speech in London to claim the UK Government's economic policy had failed "categorically and comprehensively" and caused "misery" for some of the UK's most vulnerable people. (http://bit.ly/1CWQBi9)

The Independent

The boss of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has denied allegations that the department failed to act on tax evasion claims linked to HSBC's Swiss subsidiary. (http://ind.pn/1ChuRYN)

The high street fashion chain New Look Eyewear Inc could be ready to rejoin the stock market after an 11-year absence, according to its chief executive. (http://ind.pn/1zVbjLz)

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Jobless claims for week of Feb. 7 at 8:30--consensus 288K
Retail sales for January at 8:30--consensus down 0.4%
Business inventories for December at 10:00--consensus up 0.2%
EIA natural gas storage change for week of Feb. 6 at 10:30

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Ally Financial (ALLY) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein
BGC Partners (BGCP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
HubSpot (HUBS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
INC Research (INCR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Mosaic (MOS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
NICE Systems (NICE) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
TubeMogul (tube) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Urban Outfitters (URBN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Willis Group (WSH) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Downgrades

Amber Road (AMBR) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD) downgraded to Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Ctrip.com (CTRP) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
FMC Technologies (FTI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
FMC Technologies (FTI) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Grifols (GRFS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
InterXion (INXN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Nanosphere (NSPH) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
NetApp (NTAP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Brean Capital
Owens Corning (OC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital
Owens Corning (OC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at MKM Partners
Pioneer Natural (PXD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust
Prudential (PRU) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Tanger Factory (SKT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI
Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Tesoro (TSO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

Initiations

Albemarle (ALB) resumed with a Neutral at Citigroup
Columbia Pipeline (CPPL) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
DSW (DSW) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
H&R Block (HRB) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Oi S.A.  (OIBR)reinstated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Ritchie Bros. (RBA) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Vista Outdoor (VSTO) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital

COMPANY NEWS

Petrobras (PBR) said an explosion at a platform kills three workers
FXCM (FXCM) reported retail customer trading volume of $450B in January 
JetBlue (JBLU) reported January traffic up 14.3%
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said financials 'better than they appear, not worse'
Total (TOT) said it plans to sell $5B of assets in 2015
zulily (ZU) said Marc Stolzman will no longer serve as CFO and announced a $250M share repurchase over next 24 months
UniCredit (UNCFF) announced plans to sell UCCMB unit to Fortress (FIG)

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Capella Education (CPLA), PBF Logistics (PBFX), PBF Energy (PBF), Nielsen (NLSN), First American (FAF), SPX Corp. (SPW), NorthWestern (NWE), Walker & Dunlop (WD), Quintiles (Q), Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), Copa Holdings (CPA), Luxoft (LXFT), AGL Resources (GAS), Panera Bread (PNRA), TAL International (TAL), China Distance Education (DL), Agnico-Eagle (AEM), TechTarget (TTGT), The Advisory Board (ABCO), Markel (MKL), Stamps.com (STMP), Student Transportation (STB), Equifax (EFX), NVIDIA (NVDA), Anworth Mortgage (ANH), C&J Energy (CJES), Aerohive (HIVE), NCI, Inc. (NCIT), HubSpot (HUBS), Diodes (DIOD), Zendesk (ZEN), Cray (CRAY), Quidel (QDEL), Corrections Corp. (CXW), Amber Road (AMBR), Catalent (CTLT), Morningstar (MORN), MetLife (MET), Select Comfort (SCSS), Navigators (NAVG), Navigators (NAVG), Cisco (CSCO), Whole Foods (WFM), FireEye (FEYE), Globant (GLOB), Forrester (FORR)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Tesla (TSLA), Bunge (BG), Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL), Time Inc. (TIME), Teck Resources (TCK), Forum Energy (FET), Yamana Gold (AUY), CareTrust REIT (CTRE), HNI Corporation (HNI), ION Geophysical (IO), Hornbeck Offshore (HOS), LivePerson (LPSN), Baidu (BIDU), Cenveo (CVO), zulily (ZU), Tesoro Logistics (TLLP), Tesoro (TSO), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Mattersight (MATR), CenturyLink (CTL), Covanta (CVA), NetApp (NTAP), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Insight Enterprises (NSIT), Tucows Inc (TCX), Itron (ITRI)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Himax (HIMX), CYS Investments (CYS), Oceaneering (OII), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD), Acadia (ACHC), Skechers (SKX)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

eBay (EBAY) plans to send off PayPal with $5B in cash, WSJ reports
Qualcomm (QCOM) under investigation by South Korean competition authorities, FT reports
SEC investigates disclosures tied to Icahn takeover of CVR (CVI), Reuters reports
Google (GOOG) gives Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) 90 days to fix security flaws, Bloomberg says

SYNDICATE

Achillion (ACHN) 12M share Secondary priced at $10.25
Callon Petroleum (CPE) files $400M mixed securities shelf
Eclipse Resources (ECR) files to sell 62.5M shares of common stock for holders
Ensign Group (ENSG) 2.5M share Secondary priced at $41.00
Harvard Apparatus (HART) files to sell common stock, Series B Convertible Preferred Stk
Invitae (NVTA) 6.35M share IPO priced at $16.00
Orion Energy (OESX) intends to offer $15M shares of common stock
Remark Media (MARK) files $50M mixed securities shelf
Threshold Pharmaceuticals (THLD) sells common stock and warrants
Transition Therapeutics (TTHI) files automatic common stock shelf
Vermillion (VRML) files to sell 11.11M shares of common stock for holders

Frontrunning: February 13

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  • Greece will do 'whatever it can' to reach deal with EU (Reuters)
  • ECB Urges Greek Political Deal as Emergency Cash Is Tight (BBG)
  • Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire (Reuters)
  • Eurozone GDP Picks Up, Thanks to Germany (WSJ)
  • Two J. P. Morgan Executives Connected to Asia Hiring Probe Pushed Out (WSJ)
  • Putin's High Tolerance for Pain and Europe's Reluctance to Inflict It (BBG)
  • Indigestion Hits Top U.S. Food Firms (WSJ)
  • Alibaba's Jack Ma seeks to reassure employees over U.S. lawsuits (Reuters)
  • China Credit Growth Accelerates in Boost to Economic Outlook (BBG)
  • AmEx-Costco Divorce Shakes Up Card Industry (WSJ)
  • Obama Order Will Help Firms Get U.S. Cyberthreat Data (WSJ)
  • Anglo Writes Down $3.9 Billion of Assets as Prices Fall (BBG)
  • Canberra, We Need to Talk About Debt (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The leaders of France and Germany warned there was still much to do to ensure a Ukraine cease-fire deal doesn't fall apart. (http://on.wsj.com/1zON7M9)

* President Barack Obama on Friday will sign an executive order that aims to make it easier for the government to share classified cyberthreat information with companies, an effort designed to spur collaboration and deter hackers, the White House said. (http://on.wsj.com/1zQwUWP)

* American Express and Costco Wholesale are ending their 16-year relationship, a surprise move that pummeled AmEx's stock price and will trigger a major upheaval in the card industry. (http://on.wsj.com/1KS14uv)

* Expedia and Orbitz Worldwide, which squeezed agents out of the travel business, agreed to merge Thursday as they struggle to hang onto the middle of a market that is now squeezing them. (http://on.wsj.com/1DLTT71)

* Dish Network's race for wireless licenses in the government's most recent auction involved a handful of allied bidders and an aggressive strategy that surprised its rivals and may have helped drive prices higher. (http://on.wsj.com/1zQBbt6)

* General Motors Co is weighing the potential impact on its investment grade credit rating of a large stock repurchase proposed by activist investor Harry Wilson and four hedge funds. (http://on.wsj.com/1CnaqKe)

 

FT

BT Group Plc has raised 1 billion pounds ($1.54 billion) through a share sale to fund its acquisition of EE, UK's largest mobile operator. The company offered 222 million shares at a price of 4.55 pounds.

Online property portal Zoopla said the number of real estate agents advertising on its site fell by 11 percent due to the launch of a rival website called OntheMarket. The company said a total of 16,967 agents advertised on Zoopla compared with 18,999 last year.

Bankers accused of wrongdoing may see their bonuses and fixed pay being clawed back, even if the offence took place 10 years ago. Ed Balls, shadow chancellor, will unveil on Friday, new reforms that will see the proposed clawback period being extended from seven to 10 years.

Irene Dorner, a prominent banker who retired from HSBC last year, will join the board of Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc as a non-executive director. Dorner will replace John Neill, chairman of Unipart, who has been a non-executive member since 2008.

 

NYT

* U.S. President Obama will meet the nation's top technologists on a host of cyber security issues and the threats posed by increasingly sophisticated hackers. (http://nyti.ms/1zbTRQk)

* A private investigator in New York is expected to plead guilty to charges of paying a so-called hacker-for-hire firm to steal email passwords and credentials, said three people briefed on the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because no charges had been filed yet. The guilty plea would wrap up a nearly yearlong investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and federal prosecutors in New York. (http://nyti.ms/1zQD8FZ)

* The number of recalled vehicles in 2014 exceeded the total for the previous three years combined. According to the automakers, Honda Motor Co Ltd recalled about 8.9 million vehicles last year, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles recalled about 8.8 million, Toyota Motor Corp recalled about 6 million and Ford recalled almost 4.9 million. (http://nyti.ms/1yuq2cv)

* Trinity Industries turned to state attorneys general in an attempt to refute claims that its system has a deadly design flaw. The appeals are the latest example of how this once low-profile company has mounted an increasingly aggressive lobbying campaign in recent years as concerns over its guardrails have grown. (http://nyti.ms/1ClwuqR)

* Universal has quietly put together a 2015 slate that brings an echo of the studio's 1980s glory days, one that analysts say could make Universal the year's No. 1 studio, at least by ticket sales. (http://nyti.ms/1MibGpU)

* After retrieving a laptop in a strike on a Qaeda leader, American and Afghan commandos increased secret night raids on militants, even as the United States has declared the Afghanistan war essentially over. (http://nyti.ms/1ClJc6E)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Bombardier announced sweeping changes on Thursday that are designed to calm mounting concerns over its future. The company said Pierre Beaudoin would step down as chief executive to become executive chairman. Bombardier also said it would scrap its dividend, raise $600 million in shares and up to C$1.5 billion ($1.20 billion) in debt. (http://bit.ly/1KRuYAQ)

** Sun News Network, which was launched in 2011, will go off the air on Friday morning. The channel suffered from heavy financial losses due to low ratings and lost C$46.7 million over one three-year span. The closing will mean the loss of 150 full-time jobs and affect about 200 employees and contributors. (http://bit.ly/1DLtIgB)

** A Canadian journalist imprisoned for more than a year has been released on bail, but there is no guarantee Mohamed Fahmy's freedom will be long-lived. A Cairo courtroom erupted in applause on Thursday when a judge said Fahmy, the local bureau chief for Al Jazeera's English network, could be let go until the next court hearing after the payment of about C$41,000. (http://bit.ly/1EeYBYJ)

NATIONAL POST

** Home prices in Canada's oil capitals will suffer a correction this year as plunging oil prices turn the nation's housing market upside-down, say TD economists. Prices are on track to fall as much as 10 percent in Calgary, Edmonton and St. John's Newfoundland over 2015 and into 2016 as the collapsing oil industry hits growth, incomes and employment. (http://bit.ly/1KP1Nys)

** A young British Columbia man who claims his life was ruined by gossip about a false rape claim has won the right to sue his accuser for defamation, in a rare case of a sexual-assault complainant being held legally liable for her statement to police. (http://bit.ly/1vHSTPY)

** The federal government will appeal a court ruling allowing a Muslim woman to wear a niqab while taking the oath of citizenship because it is "offensive" to shield your face at the moment you are being sworn in, the Canadian prime minister said on Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1J7AAJO)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- Promoting stability and development are the keys to achieving economic and social development, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee said on Thursday.

- China's investor confidence index hit 67.7 percent in January, jumping 44.7 percent from a year earlier, China Securities Investors Protection Fund Ltd said in a report.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- China's insurance sector had 140 trillion yuan ($22.42 trillion) in assets at the end of 2014, up 28.5 percent from the previous year, the country's insurance regulator said. Sixty-eight firms had a solvency ratio above 150 percent.

SHANGHAI DAILY

- Shanghai authorities have urged firms that manufacture or process meat and dairy products to install surveillance cameras in the factory following a food safety scandal at a supplier to fast food firms such as McDonald's and Yum Brands .

CHINA DAILY

- Jiamei Medical Group, China's largest privately-owned chain of dental clinics, plans to use a backdoor listing to go public in 2015, said Liu Jia, the company's chief executive.

 

Britain

The Times

Families will feel richer this year than they have for more than a decade as spending power soars, the Bank of England declared. Signalling an abrupt end to the six-year decline in living standards, Governor Mark Carney predicted that households' disposable income would rise at its fastest rate since 2001. (http://thetim.es/1CmsRys)

Everyone avoids tax, a major Tory donor declared as he backed down in his high-stakes row with Ed Miliband. Lord Fink, a former Conservative party treasurer, retracted a threat to sue the Labour leader over accusations that he avoided tax after admitting to "vanilla" measures to reduce his liability while living in Switzerland. (http://thetim.es/1AtrOAd)

The Guardian

The extension of emergency funding to the Greek finance sector by the euro zone's central bankers lifted the euro and gave Greece's prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, a stronger hand before meetings with senior officials at the leaders summit in Brussels. (http://bit.ly/170Bm9y)

British household spending power fell in the first three years of the coalition government despite millions of people being taken out of the lowest income tax band, according to a report by the Office for National Statistics. (http://bit.ly/1voRxDU)

The Telegraph

David Cameron has told Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, that he must make peace with Germany and the euro zone or risk damaging Britain's economic recovery. (http://bit.ly/1J5x7vf)

Ryanair's battle to keep its stake in Aer Lingus Group Plc suffered its ninth consecutive court defeat after the Court of Appeal supported an earlier ruling that the airline must slash its stake in its Irish rival. (http://bit.ly/1CkDJPV)

Sky News

Herve Falciani, the man who exposed a tax scandal at HSBC Holdings Plc by leaking thousands of account details from a Geneva branch, says he first raised concerns about suspect practices at the bank seven years ago. (http://bit.ly/1zQ5f8q)

Ministers are poised to ignite a new row over energy prices by launching a multi-million pound taxpayer-funded advertising splurge less than three months before the General Election. (http://bit.ly/1F3G0CC)

The Independent

The International Monetary Fund has granted Ukraine a new $17.5 billion bailout deal to help support economic reforms. (http://ind.pn/1AgXOZR)

Telecom giant BT Group Plc has raised 1 billion pounds ($1.54 billion) from investors to help fund its 12.5 billion pounds takeover of EE. (http://ind.pn/1uJKbQq)

 

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Import price index for January at 8:30--consensus down 3.2%
U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February at 10:00--consensus 98.1
Baker Hughes rig count for week of February 13 at 13:00--prior 1456

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Ascena Retail (ASNA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Cytokinetics (CYTK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo
Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) upgraded to Buy from Sell at UBS
Mallinckrodt (MNK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Medical Properties upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Orbitz (OWW) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Stage Stores (SSI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
Valero (VLO) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Downgrades

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
BorgWarner (BWA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Cenovus Energy (CVE) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Gold Fields (GFI) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC
InterXion (INXN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Knowles (KN) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital
Natural Resource Partners (NRP) downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Northeast Utilities (NU) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Pentair (PNR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Rio Tinto (RIO) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Salix (SLXP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
Scripps Networks (SNI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners
Sun Life Financial (SLF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
TNT Express (TNTEY) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Tesoro (TSO) downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman
Tesoro (TSO) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Total (TOT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Waste Management (WM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Zoetis (ZTS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan

Initiations

Identiv (INVE) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
WPX Energy (WPX) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James

COMPANY NEWS

AIG (AIG) authorized repurchase of up $2.5B of common stock
Kraft Foods (KRFT) said George Zoghbi, currently Vice Chairman, Operations, R&D, Sales and Strategy, has been named COO. The company also announced that Chris Kempczinski, who currently leads Kraft's Canada business unit, will assume an expanded role as Executive VP of Growth Initiatives and President of International
Nike (NKE) said Donald Blair to retire as CFO, Andrew Campion to succeed
ConAgra (CAG) announced Sean Connolly as new CEO
King Digital (KING) announced special dividend of 94c per share, forecast Q1 gross bookings $575M-$600M

EARNINGS
Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
WABCO (WBC), Calpine (CPN), Rocky Brands (rcky), Portland General Electric (POR), MobileIron (MOBL), j2 Global (JCOM), Tangoe (TNGO), Vocera (VCRA), Newpark Resources (NR), World Fuel Services (INT), Mattson (MTSN), Ellie Mae (ELLI), Cognex (CGNX), Blucora (BCOR), LogMeln (LOGM), Republic Services (RSG), New Relic (NEWR), Bright Horizons (BFAM), Cinedigm (CIDM), Shutterstock (SSTK), Web.com (WWWW), Boyd Gaming (BYD), King Digital (KING), PROS (PRO), CyberArk (CYBR), Radiant Logistics (RLGT), Qlik Technologies (QLIK), Regal Entertainment (RGC), Shutterfly (SFLY), Rubicon (RBCN), Alnylam (ALNY), DaVita (DVA), Groupon (GRPN), Guidance Software (GUID), CBS (CBS), Columbia Sportswear (COLM), American Equity (AEL)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Energen (EGN), Liberty Global (LBTYA), Mercer (MERC), Assurant (AIZ), MoneyGram (MGI), Ironwood (IRWD), S&W Seed (SANW), PCM, Inc. (PCMI), EMCORE (EMKR), AIG (AIG), Biodel (BIOD)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Profire Energy (PFIE), Intermolecular (IMI), Hawaiian Electric (HE), InnerWorkings (INWK), SS&C (SSNC), WageWorks (WAGE), Zynga (ZNGA)

Campbell Soup (CPB) sees Q2 EPS 65c-66c, consensus 68c. The company also lowered FY15 EPS outlook to $2.32-$2.38, consensus $2.45
ConAgra (CAG) sees Q3 EPS 10c below 62c earned last year, consensus 61c, sees 2015 EPS $2.13-$2.18, consensus $2.26

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES
Yahoo (YHOO) expected to cut up to 200 employees, primarily in Canada, WSJ reports
Shire (SHPG) takes initial steps towards Salix (SLXP) bid, Reuters says
JPMorgan (JPM) Asia investment bank Vice Chairman steps down, Financial Times says
GM (GM) worried about impact to credit rating by proposed buyback, WSJ reports
Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG) may look to buy Citi's (C) credit card unit in Japan, Nikkei says

SYNDICATE
EyeGate (EYEG) 683K share IPO priced at $6.00
Groupon (GRPN) files to sell common stock for shareholders, no amount given
Northern Dynasty (NAK) files to sell 18.8M shares for selling stockholders
Rice Energy (RICE) files to sell 60.4M shares of common stock for holders

WHAT's NEXT FOR EUROPE AND RUSSIA

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HEADLINES

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Bank Of England Sees Strong Growth But Ready To Cut Rates If Needed

Sweden Adopts Negative Rates, Bond Purchases To Fight Deflation Threat

Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed At Minsk Talks

IMF's Lagarde: Reached Deal For $17.5 Bln Funding To Ukraine

ECB's Praet Says ECB Won't Bend ELA Rules For Greece

EU, Greece Can't Reach Agreement, Move Talks To Monday

Japan's Amari: Making Progress In Beating Deflation Despite Oil Price Fall

Irish Reverse Holds Eurozone December Industry Output Flat

Greek Unemployment Rate Steady At 25.8% In November

Bombardier Posts Loss On $1.4 Bln Charge For Paused Learjet Program

Shire Sees Mid-Single Earnings Growth In 2015

Total Takes $6.5 Bln Charge As It Unveils Deep Loss

Renault Pledges 2015 Profit Gain As Product Offensive Bites

Credit Suisse Outlines Measures To Deal With Strong Franc

Ryanair Loses Appeal Against Order To Cut Aer Lingus Stake

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COMMENTARY

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PREVIEW: US Shoppers May Treat Dollar Bulls To Feast

Dollar bulls will get a top-notch dessert after Friday's main course and, with a bit of luck, it may be just sweet enough to test the late-January highs of the greenback.

Retail sales and the weekly tally of jobless claims are on tap on Thursday morning. Bets that the Federal Reserve will drop "patience" from its forward guidance next month are already on the rise, and strong prints on Thursday would certainly help the hawkish view.

The Department of Commerce in Washington will release the numbers at 8:30am local time. At the same time, the Department of Labor will release its weekly jobless claims report. (WBP Online – Continue Reading)

Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed At Minsk Talks

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have reached a ceasefire deal after 17 hours of talks in Minsk, Belarus, on the Ukrainian conflict.

The ceasefire will come into force on Sunday as part of a deal that also involves the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line.

Russian president Vladimir Putin was the first to announce the deal, saying: “We have agreed on a ceasefire from midnight 15 February.”

Putin added: “There is also the political settlement. The first thing is constitutional reform that should take into consideration the legitimate rights of people who live in Donbass. There are also border issues. Finally there are a whole range of economic and humanitarian issues.” (Guardian – Continue Reading)

 

UK Headed For Deflation Says Bank Of England

The Bank of England has said it could be forced to cut rates even further as Britain heads for its first period of deflation since 1989 due to a dramatic fall in oil prices.

It said it would be ready to lower rates further or add to its £375bn stockpile of asset purchases if inflation remained persistently below target, though Governor Mark Carney said his "central expectation" was that a rate rise would be the Bank's next move.

The Bank also said that if the fall in oil prices boosted growth more than expected, the Bank would increase rates "more quickly than embodied in current market yields". Markets believe rates will not rise to 1.5pc until 2020. (Telegraph – Continue Reading)

Welcome Riksbank To NIRP, QE And Forward Guidance

The Riksbank has managed to surprise by embracing a raft of unconventional easing measures that have not been adopted by other central banks during the financial crisis.

No other central bank has taken the steps of adopting negative interest rates, QE and inflation based forward guidance and to do so in a single meeting, which  makes this easing that much more spectacular.

The Riksbank also does not end there and leaves the door open to do more by suggesting it is willing to buy loans to companies via banks and indicate a “readiness to do more at short notice”. (IFR – Continue Reading)

More Disturbing Findings Emerge On US Productivity Path

San Francisco Fed researcher John Fernald is producing disturbing results in research on the path of U.S. productivity growth.

A productivity boom from 1995 to 2003 was a blip in a longer-run slowdown dating back to 1973, he finds. Since 2004 the U.S. has been on a path of modest productivity growth of 1.5% per year, far slower than the 3% average that characterized the 1995-2003 boom period and the 1948-1973 trend.

Perhaps most disturbingly, the slowdown is the result of diminished innovation in the economy, as opposed to diminished investment, he argues. During the late 1990s, firms in retailing, wholesaling, broadcasting, utilities and other industries used information technology aggressively to reorganize and produce more output with less input. By the mid-2000s, “the low-hanging fruit of IT-based innovation had been plucked.”

It is an extension of earlier work he wrote last year and before. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

http://www.livesquawk.com/img/trans_two.gif

 

West Coast Ports Shut Down For Holiday Weekend: Supply Chain Halt Threatens Havoc On Reeling Economy

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A week ago, when we wrote "Catastrophic Shutdown Of America's Supply Chain Looms" As West Coast Port Worker Talks Break Down", few people noticed... as was to be expected: after all with January's retails sales just around the corner, retail sales that were supposed to surge after the vast December disappointment, nobody wanted reality to spoil the party.

Then, following the very disappointing January retail sales led to the worst back-to-back drop since Lehman (this time there was no polar vortex to blame), confirming the US economic situation is far worse than the panglossian cheerleaders, led by the Fed, would have you believe, people started to notice, especially when we presented dramatic footage showing that the Ports of LA and Long Beach harbor have become cargo ship and tanker parking lots.

Fast forward to today, when over the past 48 hours there has suddenly been a deluge of sellside reports, rushing to bring attention to this topic, such as the following:

  • West Coast port disruptions likely to cloud outlooks as Q4 earnings approach - Goldman Sachs
  • Port Slowdowns Intensifying, Risk Heightened Across Retail Space: Credit Suisse
  • Further West Coast Port Disruption A Possibility - Deutsche Bank
  • All's not quiet at the Western ports - Bank of America

And so on. Why the dramatic shift in attention to what as our readers knew 10 days ago, could be a crippling event to the US economy? Simple: as we again explained last Thursday, "in an economy that is desperate for any "one-time, non-recurring" item to explain what is now global secular stagnation and economic slowdown, an excuse such as a port strike, or a harsh winter, or a strong dollar, or plunging crude, may be precisely the scapegoat that the central-planning doctor ordered."

The only difference is that unlike the polar vortex which everyone blamed the atrocious Q1 2014 GDP on (after the unheard, seasonally-adjusted fact of snow in the winter), and which was nothing but a placeholder scapegoat, a looming collapse of US supply chains will truly have devastating consequences on the economy, quantified here two days ago.

Worse, the latest news out of the West Coast is not good for anyone hoping for a quick resolution to the congestion problem. According to Reuters, after the clogged ports briefly reopened on Friday after a daylong closure, "shippers planned to re-impose a partial shutdown through the holiday weekend barring a settlement in stalled labor talks with the dockworkers union."

The shipping companies and terminal operators planned to halt loading and unloading of container ships again starting Friday night and keep the suspension in place through Monday, the Presidents Day holiday, unless contract negotiators clinch a breakthrough deal. A deal which at least as of this moment, does not appear to be anywhere remotely close: "negotiators for the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, representing 20,000 dockworkers, met at union headquarters in San Francisco on Thursday with officials from management's bargaining agent, the Pacific Maritime Association, for the first face-to-face talks in nearly a week. But the session, presided over by a federal mediator, ended with no agreement reached. It was not immediately clear whether the parties would resume direct negotiations on Friday."

So while the union demands an increase to overtime comp (when as shown previously the average dockworker makes a quarter of a million per year all-in) and has thrown in some new negotiation demands as well, including changes to the system of binding arbitration and contract disputes, in the meantime, inbound cargo vessels continued to stack up at anchor, with 27 freighters left idle on Friday morning waiting for a berth outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the nation's two busiest cargo hubs.

The numbers are likely to grow by the end of the weekend as additional vessels arrive from Asia with no place to park at the docks.

It's not just LA: according to Lloydslist, between 10 and 12 ships a day are waiting to berth in Oakland marine terminals. "Clearing the cargo backlog at US west coast ports would take two months, once a new contract with longshore workers had been reached, the Port of Oakland says in a status update as relations between employers and labour worsen." Naturally, should the standoff continue, there is no telling how substantial the supply-chain delay will be and how many months it will take to revert the system back to normal.

So while the world awaits to see if the US economy will be slammed with the estimated 3.5%, or more, growth slowdown which could well result in a recession for the US as soon as this summer (recall that the 29 affected ports handle nearly half of all U.S. maritime trade and more than 70 percent of imports from Asia) the congestion has already rippled through the U.S. commercial supply chain, disrupting deliveries of a wide range of goods, from agricultural produce to housewares and apparel.

Here are some of the ways the already reeling US retail economy is now being pummeled as a result of the collapse of this weakest chokepoint in the US supply-chain infrastructure.

  • Small business owners are unable to get goods on the shelf in time for long-planned merchandising programmes. Some are paying high premiums for work-arounds such as airfreight.
  • Manufacturers are at risk of closing down assembly lines because they don't receive parts shipments.
  • California's Central Valley growers can't get perishable agricultural exports through the marine terminals quickly and on to ships for delivery to overseas markets.
  • Thousands of independent harbour truckers are doing less business — and receiving less pay — because they're often stranded in long lines awaiting cargo.  Businesses are beginning to furlough workers because their operations are stymied by cargo delays.
  • Surcharges, two week delays reported: congestion in the West Coast ports is leading to longer import lead times (up to two week delays) and increased surcharges from shippers, agents, and truckers.
  • According to Credit Suisse, surcharges for transport and east coast delivery are at all-time high levels (adding 75-100% to cost of shipping in some cases.)
    • K line, the sixteenth largest container shipping company in the world has added $800 congestion surcharges in ports where slowdowns are occurring.
    • Truckers in Long Beach and Lost Angeles have recently added $50/hour to $100/hour surcharges for shipments originating from these ports.  The average cost for Asia-U.S. shipping a twenty-foot container is approximately $750.
  • Rerouting to east coast ports is time-consuming and expensive: some companies have diverted shipments to the east coast to avoid congestion on the west coast, incurring additional surcharges on top of the already more expensive and time consuming journey to Atlantic ports.

Bottom line: estimated recovery is 1 week for each day the ports are closed, and the National Retail Federation estimates a 5-day shutdown on the West coast could reduce GDP by almost $2B a day. Clearly, the adverse impact on the economy from a protracted slowdown - because it is not a full-blown lockout like in 2002 preventing Obama from using the Taft-Hartley Act to forcibly reopen the ports - will be massive, especially now that the bulk of retail vendors, many of them on line, depend on Just In-Time provisioning of mission-critical products and supplies.

One thing that is not clear is, as we asked last week, a slow-burning lockout in the West is not precisely what the Fed (Ph)Doctor ordered: after all what better excuse to a rate hike which consensus now see as taking place in 4 months, than an exogenous event which the Marriner Eccles central planners had no control or visibility over. In fact, it is a perfect Fed trump card to not only delay hiking rates but potentially lower rates... as Goldman Sachs so surprisingly hinted as a distinct possibility last week.

Finally, for those curious what a worst case scenario would look like should events in the West Coast spiral out of control, we suggest rereading our article from 2012 on the topic of "Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion"


HSBC Bank: Secret Origins To Laundering The World's Drug Money

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Submitted by the Drug Trafficking & Narco-Terrorism Department of GreatGameIndia

HSBC Bank : Secret Origins To 26/11 Mumbai Attacks

#SwissLeaks what the media has termed it is a trove of secret documents from HSBC’s Swiss private banking arm that reveals names of account holders and their balances for the year 2006-07. They come from over 200 countries, the total balance over $100 billion. But nowhere has the HSBC Swiss list touched off a more raging political debate than in India.

That’s why to obtain and investigate the Indian names, The Indian Express partnered in a three-month-long global project with the Washington-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and the Paris-based Le Monde newspaper. The investigation revealed 1,195 Indian HSBC clients, roughly double the 628 names that French authorities gave to the Government in 2011. The new revelation— published as part of a global agreement — is expected to significantly widen the scale and scope of the ongoing probe by the Special Investigation Team (SIT) appointed by the Supreme Court.

For years, when banks have been caught laundering drug money, they have claimed that they did not know, that they were but victims of sneaky drug dealers and a few corrupt employees. Nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is that a considerable portion of the global banking system is explicitly dedicated to handling the enormous volume of cash produced daily by dope traffickers.

Contrary to popular opinion, it is not “demand” from the world’s population which creates the mind destroying drug trade. Rather, it is the world financial oligarchy, looking for massive profits and the destruction of the minds of the population it is determined to dominate, which organized the drug trade. The case of HSBC underscores that point. Serving as the central bank of this global apparatus, is HSBC.

2009 CIA Map of Drug Trade Routes

* * *

East India Company Origins

The opium trade began in the early 1700s as an official monopoly of the British East India Company, which conquered India, and ran it on behalf of the British Crown and the financiers operating through the City of London. Indian-grown opium became a key component in the trade for tea and silk in China.  The East India Company had a thriving business selling British textiles and other manufactured products in India, and selling Chinese silk and tea in Britain. But the Company ran into problems with the opium end of the trade. The influx of opium caused major problems for China, and led the Emperor to issue an edict in 1729 prohibiting opium consumption. Then, in 1757, the Emperor restricted all foreigners and foreign vessels to a trading area in the port city of Canton. A stronger edict in 1799 prohibited the importation and use of opium under penalty of death.

None of this stopped the British from continuing to flood China with opium, creating millions of addicts, but it did cause the East India Company to protect its tea and silk trade by shifting its Chinese opium operations to nominally independent drug runners who bought opium legally from the East India Company in Calcutta, and smuggled it into China. The most prominent of these drug-running firms was Jardine Matheson & Co. It was founded in 1832 by two Scotsmen, William Jardine and James Matheson.  Jardine had been a ship’s surgeon with the East India Company, while Matheson was the son of a Scottish baronet. The firm today is controlled by the Keswick family. In 1839, the Chinese Emperor launched an anti-opium offensive, which included the confiscation of all opium stocks in the hands of Chinese and foreign merchants. The merchants put up a fight, but were ultimately forced to concede, turning in their opium stocks after being indemnified against losses by British officials.

In response, however, the British launched a propaganda campaign against China, accusing it of violating Britain’s right to “free trade.” Britain sent its fleet to China, to force the Chinese to capitulate to the opium trade. The action, known as the First Opium War, resulted in the Treaty of Nanking in 1842, under which China not only capitulated to the opium trade, but also agreed to pay reparations to the opium runners and gave the British control of the island of Hong Kong. However, the treaty did not specifically legalize opium, so the British launched a second Opium War, which resulted in the 1856 Treaty of Tientsin, which legitimized the opium trade and opened China up to foreigners even more.

As the opium and other trade with China expanded, Britain’s new territory of Hong Kong became a major imperial commercial center. The opium dealers gathered together to form a bank, the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank, as the financial flagship of the British opium trade. Over time, the bank—now known as HSBC—would extend its reach into the drug fields of the Middle East and Ibero-America, as befitting its role as the financial kingpin of Dope, Inc.

Role of Secret Societies

In 1783 Lord Shelbourne launched the Chinese opium trade with Scottish merchants from the East India Company and members of the House of Windsor-allied Knights of St. John Jerusalem.

Shelbourne’s chief propagandist was Adam Smith who worked for East India Company, which emerged from the slave-trading Levant Company and later became known as Chatham House, home to the powerful Royal Institute for International Affairs (RIIA). In 1776 the high seas pirate Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations, which became the bible of international capitalism.

In the Far East the British organized the Chinese Triad Society, also known as the Society of Heaven and Earth, to smuggle their opium.  Beginning in 1788 the Freemason Grand Lodge of England established lodges in China, one of which was the Triad Society.  Another was known as the Order of the Swastika.

In 1839 William Jardine- a Canton-based opium trafficker- steered Britain into the first Opium War after Chinese officials confiscated his stash. The second Opium War lasted from 1858-1860.  Lord Palmerston commanded both expeditions for the Brits.  He was also the High Priest of Scottish Rite Freemasonry in the British Empire.

Throughout the 19th century the British families of Matheson, Keswick, Swire, Dent, Inchcape, Baring and Rothschild controlled the Chinese heroin traffic.  The Inchcape’s and Baring’s Peninsular & Orient Steam Navigation Company (PONC) transported the dope around the world.

To the US West Coast, the families brought Chinese coolies to build JP Morgan’s railroads, slave laborers who were kidnapped (shanghaied) by the Triads.  The Triads came along too, setting up opium dens in San Francisco and Vancouver and using a network of Chinatowns as a channel for heroin.  This network exists today.  To the US East Coast the families brought African slaves and cotton.  These same families built plantations and became kings of southern cotton on the backs of shanghaied Africans.

The American families Perkins, Astor and Forbes made millions off the opium trade.  The Perkins’ founded Bank of Boston, which is today known as Credit Suisse First Boston.  The Perkins and Morgan families endowed Harvard University.  William Hathaway Forbes was a director at Hong Kong Shanghai Bank shortly after it was founded in 1866.  John Murray Forbes was the US agent for the Barings banking family, which financed most of the early drug trade.  The Forbes family heirs later launched Forbes magazine. Steve Forbes ran for President in 1996.  John Jacob Astor invested his opium proceeds in Manhattan real estate and worked for British intelligence.  The Astor family home in London sits opposite Chatham House.

These families launched the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank Corporation (HSBC) after the second Opium War as a repository for their opium proceeds.  HSBC, a subsidiary of the London-based HSBC Holdings, today prints 75% of Hong Kong’s currency, while the British Cecil Rhodes-founded Standard Chartered Bank prints the rest.  HSBC’s Hong Kong headquarters sits next to a massive Masonic Temple.

Freemasonry is a highly secretive society, making it an ideal vehicle for global drugs and arms trafficking.  According to 33rd Degree Mason Manly Hall, “Freemasonry is a fraternity within a fraternity – an outer organization concealing an inner brotherhood of the elect…the one visible and the other invisible.  The visible society is a splendid camaraderie of ‘free and accepted’ men enjoined to devote themselves to ethical, educational, fraternal, patriotic and humanitarian concerns.  The invisible society is a secret and most august fraternity whose members are dedicated to the service of an arcanum arcandrum (sacred secret).”

Wealth derived from selling this Chinese opium during British colonial rule, helped build many landmarks on India’s west coast. The Mahim Causeway, The Sir JJ School of Art, David Sassoon Library and Flora Fountain, landmarks in modern Mumbai, were built by prominent Parsi and Jewish traders from profits made by a flourishing opium and later cotton trade with China.

Prominent families from Mumbai’s past, names that adorn today’s famous institutions such as the Wadia’s, Tata’s, Jejeebhoy’s, Readymoney’s, Cama’s and Sassoon’s sold opium to China through the British. By the end of the nineteenth century, when the opium trade went bust, cotton from India’s western state of Gujarat, which had already developed strong trade links with Canton profited. The Paris’s ploughed profits from the trade with the Chinese back into India, setting up several schools, hospitals and banks. Historical records prove that some of India’s prominent Parsi traders at the time, were founders of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) founded in 1865. For a detailed report read Rothschild colonization of India.

It is this deadly opium empire that Gandhiji was very much conscious about and spoke out against for which he was jailed in 1921 by India’s British rulers for “undermining the revenue”. Having seen generations of Chinese youths rendered docile and passive Gandhijis was concerned over opium and its deadly effects on India which is clear from his letters. These opium production activities ran until 1924 in India and were stopped with the heroic efforts of Mahatma Gandhi who first agitated to remove opium production from India and destruction of China using Indian soil. Finally the British transferred the entire production to Afghanistan in 1924 handing the production to southern Afghani tribals which after 90 years became the golden crescent of opium production. Though the production is in the hands of Afghan tribals the distribution finance market control is still exercised by the same old British business houses or their proxies.

Afghan Opium for Bankers and Terrorists

There is a general impression that Afghanistan has always been the center of opium production. In fact, it has not. Prior to the Soviet invasion in 1979, opium production in Afghanistan was less than 1,000 tons; that grew to 8,200 tons (based on conservative UN Office on Drugs and Crime/UNODC figures) in 2008. Throughout this period, Afghanistan was in a state of war. Following the Soviet invasion, the anti-Soviet powers, particularly, the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia, began generating larger amounts of drug money to finance much of the war to defeat the Soviets. Since 1989, after the Soviet withdrawal, there has been an all-out civil war in Afghanistan, as the US-UK-Saudi-created mujahideen dipped further into the opium/heroin money.

What was happening in Afghanistan during this period that caused opium production to soar to those levels? History shows that the US invasion in 2001 came close to wiping out the Taliban forces; the Afghan people, at least at that point in time, because of the Pakistani-Saudi links to the Taliban and the oppressive nature of the Wahhabi-indoctrinated regime, supported the invading American and NATO forces. That began to change in 2005.

The year 2005 is important in this context, since one of the most damning parts of the US Senate report details HSBC’s relationship with the Saudi-based Al Rajhi Bank, a member of Osama bin Laden’s “Golden Chain” of important al-Qaeda financiers. The HSBC-Al Rajhi relationship has spanned decades; perhaps that is why, even when HSBC’s own internal compliance offices asked that it be terminated in 2005, and even when the US government discovered hard evidence of Al Rajhi’s relationship with terrorism, HSBC continued to do business with the bank until 2010.

In fact, the report said, Al Rajhi’s links to terrorism were confirmed in 2002, when US agents searched the offices of a Saudi non-profit US-designated terrorist organization, Benevolence International Foundation. In that raid, agents uncovered a CD-ROM listing the names of financiers in bin Laden’s Golden Chain. One of those names was Sulaiman bin Abdul Aziz Al Rajhi, a founder of Al Rajhi bank.

Recently an operation by German Customs official revealed that the British Queen financed Osama Bin Laden. German officials in an operation raided two containers passing through Hamburg Port and seized 14,000 documents establishing that Osama bin Laden was funded by UK Queen’s bank Coutts, which is part of the Royal Bank of Scotland.

HSBC & 26/11 Mumbai Attacks

Why did HSBC not terminate its links with the Al Rajhi in 2005? The answer lies in what was then put in place in Afghanistan to generate large amounts of cash. When it comes to opium/ heroin and offshore banks, Britain rules supreme. In 2005, poppy fields in southern Afghanistan began to bloom, and it became evident to the bankers and the geo-politicians of Britain and the US that cash to support the financial centers and the terrorists could be made right there.

It was announced on Jan. 27, 2006 in the British Parliament that a NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) would be replacing the US troops in Helmand province as part of Operation Herrick. The British 16 Air Assault Brigade would make up the core of the force. British bases were then located in the districts of Sangin, Lashkar Gah, and Gereshk.

As of Summer 2006, Helmand was one of the provinces involved in Operation Mountain Thrust, a combined NATO/Afghan mission targeted at Taliban fighters in the south of the country. In July 2006, the offensive essentially stalled in Helmand, as NATO (primarily British) and Afghan troops were forced to take increasingly defensive positions under heavy insurgent pressure. In response, British troop levels in the province were increased, and new encampments were established in Sangin and Gereshk. In Autumn 2006, some 8,000 British troops began to reach “cessation of hostilities” agreements with local Taliban forces around the district centers where they had been stationed earlier in the Summer, and it is then that drug-money laundering began in earnest.

This drug money, at least a good part of it, is generated in this area with the help of Dawood Ibrahim, who also played a role in helping the Mumbai attackers by giving them the use of his existing network in Mumbai. At the time, Ibrahim worked on behalf of the British, and ran his operation through the British-controlled emirate of Dubai. Drugs came into Dubai through Dawood’s “mules,” protected by the Pakistani ISI and British MI6; the dope was shipped in containers which carried equipment sent there for “repair” from Kandahar and elsewhere in southern Afghanistan. British troops controlled Helmand province, where 53% of Afghanistan’s gargantuan 8,200 tons of opium was produced in 2007.

The drugs were converted, and still are today, to cash in Dubai, where Dawood maintains a palatial mansion, similar to the one he maintains in Karachi. Dubai is a tax-free island-city, and a major offshore banking center. The most common reason for opening an offshore bank account is the flexibility that comes with it.

With the development of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), which is the latest free-trade zone to be set up there, flexible and unrestricted offshore banking has become big business. Many of the world’s largest banks already have significant presence in Dubai – big names such as Abbey National Offshore, HSBC Offshore, ABN Amro, ANZ Grindlays, Banque Paribas, Banque de Caire, Barclays, Dresdner, and Merrill Lynch, all have offices in the Emirate already.

In addition to Dubai, most of the offshore banks are located in former British colonies, and all of them are involved in money laundering. In other words, the legitimization of cash generated from drug sales and other smuggled illegitimate goods into the “respectable banks” is the modus operandi of these offshore banks. The drugs that Dawood’s mules carry are providing a necessary service for the global financial system, as well as for the terrorists who are killing innocents all over the world.

In December of 2007, this Britain-run drug-money-laundering and terrorist-networking operation was about to be exposed when Afghan President Hamid Karzai learned that two British MI6 agents were working under the cover of the United Nations and the European Union behind his back, to finance and negotiate with the Taliban. He expelled them from Afghanistan. One of them, a Briton, Michael Semple, was the acting head of the EU mission in Afghanistan and is widely known as a close confidant of Britain’s Ambassador, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles. Semple now masquerades as an academic analyst of Afghanistan, and was associated with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center. The second man, an Irishman, Mervin Patterson, was the third-ranking UN official in Afghanistan at the time that he was summarily expelled.

These MI6 agents were entrusted by London with the task of using Britain’s 7,700 troops in the opium-infested, Pushtun-dominated, southern province of Helmand to train 2,000 Afghan militants, ostensibly to “infiltrate” the enemy and “seek intelligence” about the lethal arms of the real Taliban. Karzai rightly saw it as Britain’s efforts to develop a lethal group within Afghanistan, a new crop of terrorists.

The drug money thus generated to fund the financial centers and terrorists through HSBC was also responsible for ongoing terrorist attacks that have destabilized most of South Asia. The most important of these was the massive attack on Mumbai.

The mode used to launder such drug money is through diamonds. A 2003 Report assessed various alternative financing mechanisms that could be used to facilitate money laundering and or terrorist financing. Trading in commodities, remittance systems, and currency were assessed on each of their abilities to earn, be moved, and store value. Diamonds were the only alternative financial device that fit into all of these assessment criteria.

Diamonds can be vulnerable for misuse for money laundering and terrorist financing purposes because they can transfer value and ownership quickly, often, with a minimal audit trail. They provide flexibility and an easy transportation of value.

Top diamond traders of the country, several of whom are now settled abroad, figure on what the media calls as the #SwissList, with mostly Mumbai addresses given. Many persons on the list are Gujarati diamond merchants with offices all over world having roots in Palanpur.

However their involvement in not just limited to money laundering. Almost 6 months before 26/11 2008 Mumbai Attacks the Financial Intelligence Unit of India (FIU-IND) (the central national agency responsible for receiving, processing, analyzing and disseminating information relating to suspect financial transactions) was already tracking the diamond industry for suspicious activities by terrorists.

“A year ago, some people from Mumbai began purchasing diamonds worth crores of rupees. When the industry tried to trace the traders, they turned out to be non-existent,” said Vanani.

The FIU traced all foreign transactions of Surat’s diamond industry, especially those emanating from Belgium. It found that a great deal of money was being invested by terrorist groups.

However in May 2014 eight of these Belgium based diamond dealers were given a clean chit by the Income Tax department in the black money case. The I-T department said a probe was initiated against the eight individuals, but there was no proof of tax evasion by them. Why is the Government reluctant in disclosing Black Money related data; be it NDA and even UPA before it ? For a detailed report on the issue read 26/11 – The Black Money Trail.

From the Far East to the Middle East to Ibero-America to India, everywhere the drug trade is flourishing, you will find HSBC. It may not handle the dope, but it does handle the money, making sure that the “citizens above suspicion” who run the empire get their cut of the proceeds.  Now HSBC has been caught red-handed laundering money in the U.S., India, China, Argentina almost everywhere the sun shined through the colonies. This is a bank which has abused us, assaulted our people, and violated the law with abandon. Isn’t it time we set an example and revoke its charter to do business here in India ?

Frontrunning: February 17

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  • Markets From Stocks to Debt to Euro Show Little No Panic (BBG)
  • Greek Euro Exit Risk Increases as EU Delivers Ultimatum (BBG)
  • Oil rises to $62, near 2015 high as Mideast risks support (Reuters)
  • Texas judge blocks Obama plan to protect undocumented immigrants (Reuters)
  • Oil Train Derails and Ignites Forcing West Virginia Evacuations (BBG)
  • Battle rages for town where Ukraine rebels reject ceasefire (BBG)
  • Chinese Firms Tiptoe Back Into Europe’s Battered Financial Sector (WSJ)
  • Putin’s Paradise Becomes Economic No-Go Zone Where Cash Is King (BBG)
  • Emerging fund managers stuck in buy-and-hold as trading shrivels (Reuters)
  • What Exactly Is an Apple Watch For? (WSJ)
  • Sisi warns of response after Islamic State kills 21 Egyptians in Libya (Reuters)
  • Congress Starts Its Own TurboTax Probes (WSJ)
  • Apple’s Electric Car Dreams May Bring Auto Industry Nightmares (BBG)
  • Banking Heir Who Lost Millions in Gold Wants to Raise More (BBG)
  • Noble Leads $1 Billion Share Drop as Reports Query Accounts (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Top lawmakers in the House and Senate have begun their own probes into a recent spate of fraudulent tax filings made through Intuit Inc's TurboTax, as federal agents try to determine what has happened. (http://on.wsj.com/1AM19Pl)

* Amid the steepest downturn in crude prices in years, Europe's big oil companies are getting a boost from a previously unprofitable source, their refining businesses. (http://on.wsj.com/1vAQkcR)

* H Partners Management LLC has told Tempur Sealy International Inc's board that it wants Chief Executive Mark Sarvary removed immediately, citing concerns about the mattress company's missed financial forecasts and stock performance. (http://on.wsj.com/1JmVbKf)

* Canadian insurance giant Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd said it had struck a deal to acquire U.K. specialty insurer Brit Plc in a transaction worth $1.88 billion. (http://on.wsj.com/1zk1EM9)

* Anbang Insurance Group of China is buying a controlling stake in South Korean life insurer Tong Yang Life Insurance Co Ltd for $1 billion, the latest acquisition abroad for the aggressively expanding Chinese insurer. (http://on.wsj.com/1zk1OmH)

* Japanese industrial-robot maker Fanuc Corp said it would invest more than $1 billion in new factories and research facilities at home, days after one of New York's most well-known hedge funds called on it to return more cash to investors. (http://on.wsj.com/1CDdv98)

 

FT

Stuart Rose, one of Britain's most senior businessmen, has delivered a critical assessment of how the National Health Service is run which has yet to see the light of day two months after it was submitted to ministers.

Young benefit claimants who have spent months out of education, work or training will be forced to carry out community service in exchange for state assistance under a future Conservative government, British Prime Minister David Cameron is set to announce on Tuesday.

Business figures have attacked UK's Labour over a suggestion from the party's policy chief Jon Cruddas that companies running some of the country's most important public services should be blocked from bidding for government contracts if they are "driven purely by profit".

HSBC is facing searching questions from regulators over the quality of its internal checks and culture after the Financial Conduct Authority, Britain's financial watchdog, said it was investigating recent revelations that its Swiss private bank helped clients evade taxes.

 

NYT

* The United States has found a way to permanently embed surveillance and sabotage tools in computers and networks it has targeted in Iran, Russia, Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and other countries closely watched by American intelligence agencies, according to a Russian cybersecurity firm. (http://nyti.ms/1EFC07I)

* The standoff between Greece and its European lenders appeared to reach a new low on Monday as European officials handed Athens an ultimatum. The demand appeared to be part of a strategy by eurozone creditors to get Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, to back away from the anti-austerity pledges that swept them to power last month. (http://nyti.ms/1vAL8Wj)

* Michael Fries, Liberty Global Plc's chief executive, sees himself as an underdog taking on entrenched European telecommunications giants, a strategy that has been so successful that the company is reported to be a takeover target. (http://nyti.ms/1Dk7Biu)

* Lawyers who have helped bring down big Wall Street targets are leaving public service for private law firms, but prosecutors say hungry talent is filling the gap. (http://nyti.ms/1A1xCk2)

* Government aid to low-income workers has increased, but those without jobs, who are in the direst straits, are receiving scant attention, experts say. (http://nyti.ms/1MsXg6x)

* After years of focusing heavily on its cellphone business, Vodafone Group Plc, based in Britain and the world's second-largest mobile operator behind China Mobile based on subscribers, is concentrating on high-speed broadband. (http://nyti.ms/1Ejp8V7)

* SNS Reaal, a state-owned Dutch financial services company, said on Monday that it had agreed to sell its Vivat Verzekeringen insurance arm to a unit of Anbang Insurance Group of China. (http://nyti.ms/1yPtPRQ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd is planning to buy specialty insurer Brit Plc in a C$2.3-billion ($1.86 billion) deal. (http://bit.ly/1EjTGpv)

** The number of known measles cases in Southern Ontario doubled over the Family Day weekend, as officials took the extraordinary step of publicly warning hundreds of patrons of a Christian youth gathering in Toronto to watch out. (http://bit.ly/1AMBCW7)

** The cost of Canada's role in the battle against Islamic State militants in Iraq has hit C$122 million ($98.5 million) and the government is asking Parliament to cut a cheque to the military as it deliberates continuing a mission the Conservatives appear set to extend. (http://bit.ly/1Jn0tp8)

NATIONAL POST

** Employees at Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd returned to work on Monday after only a day and a half on the picket lines, agreeing to binding arbitration before the federal government tabled its planned back-to-work legislation. (http://bit.ly/1L3SUiK)

** The federal government has effectively stymied scientific studies that could answer whether e-cigarette devices are a life-saving alternative to tobacco - or a potential magnet drawing more people to smoking, researchers say. Scientists need Health Canada's green light for studies but the department is treating the products like an experimental drug, dragging the approval process. (http://bit.ly/1CDM5jf)

** A new trial for a man acquitted of sexual assault has been ordered after the Ontario Court of Appeal found Superior Court Justice Timothy Ray guilty of violating basic legal principles. Ray created a bogus online dating profile and told a detective that information from the website could have been used to "hang" a female complainant. (http://bit.ly/1EIqskd)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- Shanghai Stock Exchange said it had launched a new pledge-style bond repurchases (repos) business on Monday to provide liquidity for the bond and asset-backed securities.

- China has not fallen into deflation, but the situation of its foreign trade in 2015 will be "complicated and grim," Shen Danyang, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Monday.

SECURITIES TIMES

- China's banking exchange has posted a deficit for six consecutive months, according to data provider the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

SHANGHAI SECURITIES JOURNAL

- New government policies are expected to help the number of new energy vehicles in China hit 500,000 in the next five years, the Ministry of Science and Technology said. China currently has 74,763 of such vehicles.

CHINA DAILY

- The Buddhist Association of China has criticised the online auctioning off of privileged access to temples during the Spring Festival via Alibaba's Taobao e-commerce website.

- Seven companies in Guangdong province were fined for employing child workers in the fourth quarter of last year. The firms were in the electronics, toy and jewellery manufacturing, and catering sectors.

Britain

The Times

HOUSING SHORTAGE BLAMED AFTER BIGGEST PRICE RISE IN ALMOST A YEAR

The chronic lack of properties coming on to the market has pushed up average house prices by nearly 6,000 stg this month and experts are warning that the shortage is the new norm. The average asking price for a home in England and Wales rose by 2.1 percent to 279,004 stg, with all regions recording increases. (http://thetim.es/1yKn5ET)

BALLS COUNTS THE COST AS RECEIPT CLAIM IS SHREDDED

Ed Balls' claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that the shadow chancellor had not always done so. (http://thetim.es/1Eiz1SO)

The Guardian

TORIES UP SIX POINTS IN LATEST ICM POLL

With just 80 days to go before the general election, the Tories are up six points since last month - their strongest showing in the Guardian's ICM poll since May 2012 and only one point down on their 2010 general election result. (http://bit.ly/17gVxjV)

TESCO TO PAY 20,000 POUNDS TO SUPPORT TWO FENLAND TOWNS AFTER STORES SCRAPPED

Tesco is stumping up 20,000 stg to support two Cambridgeshire communities after it left one with a "ghost store" that will never open and shelved plans to build another. (http://bit.ly/1AfJMoc)

The Telegraph

BRIT INSURANCE IN SALE TALKS WITH RIVAL

Lloyd's of London insurer Brit is understood to be in takeover talks with a rival less than a year after its 960 million stg stock market listing. (http://bit.ly/17j8AkK)

Sky News

US TECHNOLOGY GIANTS EYE MONITISE TAKEOVER

A number of American technology companies like FIS, IBM and Oracle are examining takeover bids for Monitise, one of the UK's most prominent manufacturers of mobile banking software, Monitise (http://bit.ly/1vQGgSK)

ALDERMORE CUTS IPO VALUATION AS PROFIT SOARS

Aldermore <IPO-ALDG.L> is to announce that annual pre-tax profit in 2014 more than doubled to about 50 million stg. A source close to the bank said that it could announce its intention to float on the London Stock Exchange by the end of the month, although the timing could yet slip. (http://bit.ly/17cpKke)

The Independent

BT POISED TO LAND BAILIFF CONTRACT TO COLLECT BILLIONS IN UNPAID FINES

BT is expected to land a much-criticised Ministry of Justice semi-privatisation deal that would see the telephony giant turn bailiff. (http://ind.pn/1Jlda3C)

CBI UPGRADES FORECAST FOR UK'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DUE TO LOW INFLATION AND OIL PRICES

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) business lobby group has upgraded its forecast for the UK's economic growth plan, expecting the economy to expand by 2.7 percent this year. (http://ind.pn/1yOjXrv)

 

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Empire State manufacturing business conditions index for February at 8:30--consensus 8.5
NAHB housing market index for February at 10:00--consensus 58

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

ADT Corp. (ADT) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Banco Bilbao (BBVA) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Campus Crest (CCG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich
Greenhill & Co. (GHL) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
Support.com (SPRT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Teleflex (TFX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Turkcell (TKC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Watsco (WSO) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
Yara (YARIY) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS

Downgrades

American Express (AXP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
Freescale (FSL) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
IMAX (IMAX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
LyondellBasell (LYB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Nordstrom (JWN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Rayonier (RYN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Sotheby's (BID) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen
Zayo Group (ZAYO) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Initiations

Box, Inc. (BOX) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
Box, Inc. (BOX) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Box, Inc. (BOX) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Box, Inc. (BOX) initiated with a Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Euronav NV (EURN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Macy's (M) initiated with an Underweight at Barclays
NetSuite (N) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Pattern Energy (PEGI) coverage resumed with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Regeneron (REGN) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
Trovagene (TROV) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Vista Outdoor (VSTO) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen

COMPANY NEWS

Transocean (RIG) announced the departure of CEO Steven Newman along with an 80% annual dividend cut to 60c from $3.00
Fairfax Financial (FRFHF) acquired Brit PLC for $1.88B
Starwood (HOT) appointed Adam Aron as interim CEO
Campus Crest Communities (CCG) announced that its board authorized the company to explore a range of strategic, operational and financial alternatives to further enhance shareholder value
Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) announced that it will reduce its workforce by approximately 10% during 2015
Canadian Pacific (CP) said it and the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference agreed to enter into binding arbitration, putting an end to the work stoppage by CP's locomotive engineers and conductors

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
CryoLife (CRY), USA Technologies (USAT), USA Compression (USAC), VASCO Data Security (VDSI), MSA Safety (MSA), United Stationers (USTR), Vipshop (VIPS), Sykes Enterprises (SYKE)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
United Fire Group (UFCS), Pioneer Energy (PES), Regal-Beloit (RBC), Helix Energy (HLX), Vectren (VVC)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Wolverine World Wide (WWW)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Apple (AAPL) working on minivan-like electric vehicle, WSJ reports
ValueAct buys 30M shares of Halliburton (HAL) after Baker Hughes (BHI) deal, Bloomberg reports
H Partners to demand CEO change at Tempur Sealy (TPX), WSJ reports
Liberty Global (LBTYA) may become takeover target, NY Times reports
Cybersecurity firm Kaspersky warns of cyber attack on banks, FT reports
McDonald's (MCD) holder CtW Investment Group seeks board changes, WSJ reports
Tesco (TSCDY) to cut up to 10,000 jobs, Telegraph reports
Investors should avoid Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Shell (RDS.A), Barron's says
Credit Suisse (CS) could rise over 20%, Barron's says
Dollar General (DG) shares could rise 20%, Barron's says

Stocks In Holding Pattern With All Eyes On Draghi And Whether ECB Will Pull Greek Liquidity

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There was much confusion yesterday when algos went into a buying frenzy on news that Greece would submit a request for a 6 month loan extension, believing this means Greece has caved and will agree to a bailout programme extension as well. Nothing could have been further from the truth as we explained first moments after the headline struck, and also as Reuters validated moments ago when it said that "Greece will submit a request to the euro zone on Wednesday to extend a "loan agreement" for up to six months but EU paymaster Germany says no such deal is on offer and Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout." But since the political nuances of diplomacy are lost on the math Ph.Ds who program the market-moving algos, the S&P did manage to roar above 2100 on what was another headfake and then forgot to sell off on the reality.

As a result, the key event today is not the FOMC minutes which will have some nebulous discussion of just what "patient" means or doesn't, as pundits bang their heads whether the Fed will hike in June completely oblivious to the "GDP-crushing" record cold weather outside and the West Coast Port strike that will lead to a plunge in February and March retail sales and Q1 GDP, but the ECB's decision whether to boost, keep unchanged or even reduce Greek access to emergency funding, a step which will put the Greek endgame into play concluding with either a full capitulation by the government or a Grexit.

As previously noted, the impact on the market from all of the above was based on the headline kneejerk reaction, where algos read into the "bullish" and ignored the nuances between the lines. As a result, yesterday’s source reports suggested that Greece are to request an extension of the loan program for 6-months which was later confirmed at the open having already supported sentiment globally as the S&P closed at record highs and the Nikkei saw out the session higher by 1.2%. The improved sentiment filtered through to European equities as they reside in the green, however Bunds and UST’s have remained directionless and trade relatively flat on the session. Greek asset classes have also been buoyed by the news out of Athens with the ASE outperforming European stocks and Greek yields falling lower in the morning. In other news, the Swiss government is preparing tighter capital requirements for 'too big too fail' banks (UBS and Credit Suisse) which now see the SMI underperform albeit still in positive territory.

Sources indicated that the ECB is considering removing ELA for Greek banks in order to increase pressure on Greece to accept an extension of their current bailout programme. However, sources said the ECB are unlikely to do that immediately.

Asian equity markets rose led by a strong Wall Street close which saw the S&P 500 finish at a record high, amid reports that Greece could ask for a 6-month loan extension as early as today. Consequently, the Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) rallied to trade at its highest levels since Sept’07 while the ASX 200 (+0.7%) rose to levels last seen in May’08. The latter was further underpinned by M&A activity as Japan Post offered to buy Toll Holdings (+46%) for USD 5.1bln. As a reminder, Chinese, South Korean and Taiwanese markets are closed due to the New Lunar New Year, while the Hang Seng (+0.2%) was only open for the first half of trade.

Meanwhile, the overall positive UK jobs report which saw the UK Jobless Claims Change (Jan) M/M -38.6k vs Exp. -25.0k allied with hawkish comments from the BoE minutes, with two members of the MPC stating that a rate hike could occur in the year lifted GBP/USD by 53 pips on a break through 1.5400 and sent short sterling lower by 3 ticks. Elsewhere, EUR/USD was under selling pressure at the open spurred on by the recovery in the USD led by USD/JPY after RANsquawk sources note macro funds buying in the pair. However, upside was not sustained as the USD has since come off highs.

In the commodity complex, Brent and WTI crude have edged lower in the session breaking below USD 62.00 and USD 53.00 respectively in the process, ahead of the build expected in the DoE crude inventories data release tomorrow. Elsewhere, heightened risk appetite has sent Gold lower coupled by slowing demand for Gold due to the Chinese Lunar holiday as Chinese markets are closed for the week-long holiday. In the latest update, the United Steelworkers Union are considering increasing the scope of their strike to their Californian port.

In summary: European shares remain higher, close to session highs, with the media and bank sectors outperforming and food & beverage, utilities underperforming. Greece may request an extension of its loan agreement for six months, according to a person familiar with the matter. Bank of England sees U.K. inflation accelerating in 2016 on strengthening labor market. U.K. 4Q unemployment below estimates. FTSE 100 trades just below record reached in December 1999. Ukraine starts troop withdrawal from key town of Debaltseve, fighting was reported near coastal city of Mariupol, hryvnia weakens to record.  The Italian and Swedish markets are the best-performing larger bourses, U.K. the worst. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Italian 10yr bond yields fall; Spanish yields decline. Commodities decline, with Brent crude, WTI crude underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. mortgage applications, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, PPI due later.

It’s a busy day in the US with January housing starts and building permits kicking off the economic reports, along with the latest PPI reading. Later we also get industrial and manufacturing production for January along with the capacity utilization print.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2094.6
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.7% to 379.5
  • US 10Yr yield up 1bps to 2.14%
  • German 10Yr yield up 0bps to 0.38%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.6% to 144
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1204/oz
  • 16 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; media, bank outperform, food & beverage, utilities underperform
  • Asian stocks rise with the Nikkei outperforming.
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.6% to 144; Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, Hang Seng up 0.2%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite closed, ASX up 1%, Sensex up 0.6%
  • 9 out of 10 sectors rise with energy, health care outperforming and utilities, telcos underperforming
  • Euro down 0.19% to $1.1389
  • Dollar Index up 0.15% to 94.2
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.6%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.55%
  • French 10Yr yield down 1bps to 0.68%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.8% to 422.7
  • Brent Futures down 2% to $61.3/bbl, WTI Futures down 1.5% to $52.7/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper up 0.5% to $5676.5/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel down 1.2% to $14070/MT
  • Wheat futures up 0.8% to 536.3 USd/bu

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Positive sentiment continues to filter through in Europe after Athens confirmed that they wish to extend their loan agreement up to 6 months
  • Today’s FOMC minutes release is again expected to show the wide-ranging views on the FOMC between the more hawkish members who favour a hike in mid-2015
  • Looking ahead, sees US Housing starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, US Fed minutes and API crude inventories, Fed’s Powell
  • Treasuries decline, 10Y yield approaches 2.161% 100-DMA before Fed releases minutes of Jan. meeting, seen as primer for Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony next week.
  • Greece may today request an extension of its loan agreement for six months, according to a person familiar with the matter, a step that could ease a standoff with creditors over the country’s future financing
  • Greek state cash reserves will be depleted next week, Kathimerini reports, without citing anyone; Merkel adviser says ECB must stick to its own rules in struggle to find compromise for helping Greece, must not fund governments
  • U.K. unemployment fell to its lowest rate in more than six years as pay growth picked up in the fourth quarter in a sign that pressure on labor costs may be starting to build
  • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne riled his European counterparts with a lecture on the consequences of failing to reach a deal with Greece, two people with knowledge of the meeting said
  • Ukraine started to withdraw its forces from an encirclement at the strategic crossroad town of Debaltseve, where heavy fighting with pro-Russian rebels is threatening a truce reached last week
  • The Bank of England said U.K. inflation may accelerate quickly in 2016 once the impact of plunging oil prices fades as wage and unemployment data showed labor-cost pressure is starting to build
  • The rebound in oil will reverse because rising U.S. production is deepening the global supply glut, according to UBS AG, Bank of America Corp. and Commerzbank AG
  • JPMorgan is reviewing the size of capital-intensive units such as rates trading, prime brokerage and its so-called delta-one equities desk, according to Daniel Pinto,   CEO of firm’s  corporate and investment bank
  • Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is looking to announce his presidential bid the second week of April—if he decides to run—a person familiar with his plans; Paul’s libertarian views provide a contrast to other top-tier GOP candidates
  • Sovereign yields mixed; Greece 10Y yield falls ~36bps to 9.924%. Asian, European stocks and U.S. equity-index futures rise. Brent and WTI fall, gold declines, copper gains

US Economic Data

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 13 (prior -9%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 1.070m (prior 1.089m)
    • Housing Starts m/m, Jan., est. -1.7% (prior 4.4%)
    • Building Permits, Jan., est. 1.069m (prior 1.032m, revised 1.058m)
    • Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. 0.9% (prior -1.9%, revised 0.6%)
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Jan., est. -0.4% (prior -0.3%, revised -0.2%)
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.3%); PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y, Jan., est. 2.0% (prior 2.1%); PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y, Jan., est. 1.3% (prior 1.3%)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production m/m, Jan., est. 0.3% (prior -0.1%)
    • Capacity Utilization, Jan., est. 79.9% (prior 79.7%)
  • 4:00pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec. (prior $33.5b)
  • Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)
  • 2:00pm: FOMC Minutes, Jan. 27-28

DB's Jim Reid with the full overnight summary

Nervously we again lead on the latest on Greece. I say nervously as so far both bad and good news hasn't really impacted the wider market that aggressively and perhaps we've been devoting too much space to it. Indeed we ourselves have been saying for several months that the ECB's QE program and other central bank action would be the main story in 2015 and this continues to be the case. However if you don't devote a lot of space to a scenario where one false move could possibly bring about the start of the end of the Euro then you might be failing to understand the wider repercussions of negotiations that are highly likely to come to a head this week. A 'Grexit' wouldn't necessarily bring chaos in 2015, especially with QE providing firewalls, but it would set a dangerous precedent in the years ahead if and when other countries faced similar pressures.

Our base case remains some kind of compromise though and the latest twist in this saga is that press reports (Bloomberg, the FT, local papers and Reuters amongst others) last night suggested that Greece will today request a 6-month extension of its international bail-out along the same lines as the one rejected by EU finance ministers on Monday but similar to the one initially proposed by EU officials.

The headlines themselves are perhaps unsurprising after we heard that Varoufakis was reported to be willing to accept an extension on Monday (albeit under different terms) before the Eurogroup changed tact. Clearly the sticking point to any sort of extension will centre around the substance of the terms themselves. For now however, markets will probably see the news as a positive step with a view to a Friday Eurogroup meeting, although the more important and time-consuming details of it still need to be negotiated. Greek press Ekathimerini have noted that a proposal from Greece will be sent to Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem this morning who will then decide if it merits an extraordinary meeting on Friday. Given the necessary parliamentary ratification process required before February 28th, this is much closer to one minute to midnight than the other Eurogroup meetings held so far.

It’s also perhaps not a big surprise that the reports emerged ahead of today’s ECB review of the ELA facility. According to reports in the Greek press, deposit outflows in recent days have amounted to €300m-€500m per day. The reports and eventual request could well be a move to keep the ECB onside in the near term.

This breaking news late in the day yesterday gave a boost to markets. The Stoxx 600 recovered from an initial drop of -0.8% to finish +0.12%, the Euro finished +0.5% stronger versus the Dollar and in the US the S&P 500 also pared back earlier losses to finish +0.16% and at a fresh record high. Meanwhile Treasuries weakened ahead of today’s FOMC minutes with the 10y yield finishing 8.8bps wider at 2.138% and in fact back to levels not seen since the start of the year. Although Greece played a part, comments from the Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser perhaps also contributed to the moves. Specifically Plosser added to some more recent hawkish commentary and was quoted on Bloomberg saying ‘I think we’re really close’ with regards to raising rates and that ‘my own view would be the committee should try its best to get patient out of the statement in March’.

Our US colleagues believe that today’s minutes could well serve as a preview of what Fed Chair Yellen could say at her semi-annual monetary policy testimony next week, although it’s worth noting that the minutes were collated before the latest strong employment report. Looking ahead to the March meeting, our colleagues note that the majority of labour market indicators on Yellen’s ‘dashboard’ have improved and that since the last payrolls print, three voting Fed Presidents have reiterated that a June liftoff in rates should be in play. It’ll be worth seeing if we get much forward guidance from today’s minutes as a result. We're still not convinced they'll be able to pull the trigger in June but we accept that the Fed are appearing trigger happy at the moment. However a lot of water is still to flow under the bridge by then.

In other markets, Gold yesterday closed weaker (-1.84%) and is now over 7% down from the January highs. The Dollar also closed softer with the DXY finishing 0.14% lower. Macro data offered few surprises with the NY Fed empire manufacturing print coming in slightly below expectations for February (7.78 vs. 8 expected) and the NAHB housing market index dropping 2 points to 55 (vs. 58 expected). Elsewhere, oil markets continue to rise with WTI (+1.42%) and Brent (+1.84%) closing higher at $53.12/bbl and $62.53/bbl respectively, although not without some intraday volatility with WTI in particular trading nearly 4% lower during the session at one stage.

Closer to home yesterday, along with the better sentiment around Greek extension headlines, macro data yesterday was also supportive. The German ZEW survey of current situations improved 23.1pts to 45.5 and the expectations survey climbed 4.6pts to 53.0 – the highest reading in 12 months. In the UK meanwhile, headline CPI dropped to +0.3% yoy from +0.5% and was a tad below expectations of +0.4%. The month-on-month reading of -0.9% for January was in fact the lowest on record since Bloomberg began compiling data. Given the disinflationary effects of oil prices however, the core print actually ticked up one-tenth to +1.4% yoy which could well give the BoE some breathing room for now. UK PPI (-1.8% yoy vs. -1.1% previously) was also unsurprisingly softer although the core (+0.5% yoy vs. +0.8% previously) dropped less than expected (+0.4% expected).

Refreshing our screens this morning, bourses are following the US lead and trading higher as we go to print. The Nikkei (+0.98%), Hang Seng (+0.19%) and ASX (+0.98%) in particular are stronger. Markets in China meanwhile closed for a week long holiday today. In Japan, the BoJ has announced that it will continue to buy ¥80tn of assets per year as largely expected. In terms of the statement itself, the BoJ said that the economy ‘has continued its moderate recovery trend’ and that exports and production have ‘been picking up’. On inflation, the statement said that ‘inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective’.

The Bank of Indonesia meanwhile yesterday joined our growing list of Central Banks easing the year following a surprise 25bp cut in the benchmark rate to 7.5%. With that, our list now stands at 37 countries (assuming the ECB covers 19 nations).

Away from the obvious focus on Greece and also the release of the FOMC minutes later today, attention this morning will likely centre on the UK with employment data due along with the release of the Bank of England minutes. It’s a busy day in the US with January housing starts and building permits kicking off this afternoon activity, along with the latest PPI reading. Later this afternoon we also get industrial and manufacturing production for January along with the capacity utilization print.

So a busy day, especially if Greece make the extension request suggested by the media

Frontrunning: February 18

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  • Greece to submit loan request to euro zone, Germany resists (Reuters)
  • Ukrainian forces start to quit besieged town (Reuters)
  • Bank of Japan maintains policy, no surprises (FT)
  • China Considering Mergers Among Its Big State Oil Companies (WSJ)
  • Soros Shifts to Europe, Asia as Investors Cut U.S. Equities (BBG)
  • Putin tells Kiev to let troops surrender as Ukraine ceasefire unravels (Reuters)
  • Venezuela Squanders Its Oil Wealth (BBG)
  • Swiss prosecutor raids HSBC office, opens criminal inquiry (Reuters)
  • Meet Uber's German Nemesis (BBG)
  • IPO Flash Crash 2.0: BATS Moves Toward Another Try at an IPO (WSJ)
  • Traders Burned on Swiss Franc Carry Shun Free Money (BBG)
  • U.S. Congress questions plan to admit Syrian refugees (Reuters)
  • BOE Sees 2016 Inflation Pickup as U.K. Labor Market Strengthens (BBG)
  • Texas judge's immigration rebuke may be hard to challenge (Reuters)
  • Chesapeake alleges founder McClendon stole 'trade secrets' to start new firm (Reuters)

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

WSJ

* The United States has decided to provide trucks equipped with machine guns and radios for calling in U.S. airstrikes to some moderate Syrian rebels, seeking to replicate the success Kurdish forces had over Islamic State last month. (http://on.wsj.com/1Jom9RG)

* China is considering forging megamergers among its big state oil companies, seeking to create new national champions and produce greater efficiencies. (http://on.wsj.com/1Bkssl4)

* Brokers who recommend retirement-account investments would have to put their clients' interests first ahead of personal gain under rules expected to be endorsed by the Obama administration as soon as next week. (http://on.wsj.com/1LaRNQi)

* BATS Global Markets, one of the three big stock-exchange operators in the United States, is preparing to replace its chief executive as it lays the groundwork for restarting an IPO, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1ELbRoe)

* The chief executive officer of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc abruptly resigned on Tuesday, following months of behind-the-scenes quarreling with shareholders and board members. (http://on.wsj.com/1ADcPp5)

* Chesapeake Energy Corp turned on the man who built it into a natural-gas powerhouse, accusing former Chief Executive Aubrey McClendon of stealing sensitive documents to start a rival company. In a lawsuit filed Tuesday, Chesapeake contends McClendon made off with confidential data and maps of oil and gas prospects before he left the company in early 2013. It alleges that he emailed the documents to a personal account and had an assistant print them out. (http://on.wsj.com/1JnQ3pm)

* Bank of America Corp CEO Brian Moynihan got a promotion last year but he is also taking a pay cut. Moynihan is expected to be paid $13 million for 2014, most of it in the form of restricted stock. That is down 7 percent from 2013 when he was paid $14 million a personal record. (http://on.wsj.com/1E4AHSa)

 

FT

Inflation has hit its lowest level in Britain in decades, as falling food and oil prices hand the Conservatives a pre-election boost.

Dogger Bank Creyke Beck project, the world's biggest offshore wind scheme has been given the go-ahead off the coast of Yorkshire, in a move the government claimed was likely to create hundreds of jobs.

House prices are still buoyant across most of the United Kingdom, but the pace of increases is continuing to slow, according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics.

UK's Labour has urged the party's activists to fight the election campaign on a platform of protecting the National Health Service, raising living standards and taxing the rich through a pocket-sized leaflet which is printed in bold lettering in short, punchy sentences.

 

NYT

* A California nursing home fined by the state for substandard care and facing multiple lawsuits by patients and their families has taken the extreme measure of filing for bankruptcy protection in the face of millions of dollars in potential payouts. (http://nyti.ms/19uVu5O)

* Many business owners in Greece say relief from austerity measures imposed by foreign creditors will not be enough to reinvigorate growth. (http://nyti.ms/1AjXUge)

* The Singaporean government's plan to stall a property boom that had become a symbol of inequality has worked only too well. A property sales tax of 18 percent for foreigners has reduced buyers' enthusiasm. (http://nyti.ms/1zmFQ2m)

* Snapchat is raising a round of venture capital that could value the company at up to $19 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions. (http://nyti.ms/1MwbxPP)

* Boston Scientific Corp agreed to pay Johnson & Johnson $600 million in connection with Johnson & Johnson's botched acquisition of Guidant, a medical device company, in 2004.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Cenovus Energy Inc, one of Canada's major oil sands firms, has turned to the market to raise at least C$1.5-billion ($1.21 billion) to help fund its already-reduced 2015 budget. The company said on Tuesday that it had raised the cash from a bought deal, selling 67.5 million shares for C$22.25 each. (http://bit.ly/17pnPZy)

** Tax relief is on the way this year for some of British Columbia's poorest families, but the provincial budget unveiled on Tuesday offers no new benefits to offset an array of government fee increases that most middle-class British Columbians will face. (http://bit.ly/17giNPl)

** The New Democratic Party is taking up the fight against Ottawa's anti-terrorism bill, planning to oppose the legislation on the grounds it gives too much power to security agencies to spy on the government's political enemies, party officials said. (http://bit.ly/1Laqwxg)

** The Royal Canadian Mounted Police pay council has compiled a "business case" that calls for a 10 percent raise, stating RCMP members have fallen far behind other police bodies. (http://bit.ly/1Blngxj)

** Bell Canada has tweaked its policy on tracking its cellphone customers' internet browsing habits, but public interest groups say the change does not go far enough. (http://bit.ly/1AEehHP)

NATIONAL POST

** SSQ Financial Group Inc is set to become the first Canadian insurer to address some of the chronic conditions that turn the body's immune system against itself. The company will also narrow the industry standard, the 30-day survival period, to 14 days. This means that, as long as those diagnosed survive two weeks, they will receive a life-insurance-style lump sum payment. (http://bit.ly/1La0sk7)

** One in five people working for Trinidad Drilling Ltd will lose their jobs as the company, one of Canada's largest drillers, is cutting spending, cutting salaries and trimming its workforce to survive the downturn in the oilfield. (http://bit.ly/1CHhVOO)

** Prime Minister Stephen Harper says "a lot" of Radio-Canada employees "hate" conservative values. Harper says those values that are loathed by many employees of CBC's French-language network are the same ones that he says are supported by a large number of Quebecers. (http://bit.ly/17gj051)

 

China

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

- The tenants of two units of a Tuen Mun industrial building are being evicted over suspected parallel trading activities. The Lands Department said the two units at Mai Kei Industrial Building were used for purposes other than industrial and they were in violation of the lease conditions. As landlords, the department evicted the tenants after repeated warnings.
(http://goo.gl/4TkXDu)

-Civil servants have been told to standardise the use of language in correspondence involving the city's sovereignty and its relations with the mainland.(http://goo.gl/QEvagC)

THE STANDARD

- Another meeting between pan-democratic lawmakers and Beijing officials on political reform may be held before the end of March, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen revealed. (http://goo.gl/EVYXTu)

-Another 18 people died of the H3N2 flu virus yesterday, bringing the toll in the outbreak to 228. Centre for Health Protection controller Leung Ting-hung said it was the most to die of flu in a single day. (http://goo.gl/ES0G9z)

 

Britain

The Times

INFLATION FALLS TO 0.3 PCT IN JANUARY AS BRITAIN HEADS FOR DEFLATION

Inflation has fallen to its lowest level on record as the Bank of England predicts that Britain is heading for deflation. New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the annual rate of consumer price inflation dropped to 0.3 percent in January, down from 0.5 percent in December. (http://thetim.es/1FZ3qXv)

FAIRFAX BUYS BRIT INSURANCE FOR 1.22 BLN POUNDS

Lloyd's of London insurer Brit Insurance has agreed to a takeover by Canada's Fairfax Financial Holdings for 1.22 billion stg in the latest consolidation in the sector. (http://thetim.es/1zlVo6A)

The Guardian

TESCO ANNOUNCES JOHN ALLAN AS NEW CHAIRMAN

Tesco has named John Allan, chairman of the housebuilder Barratt Developments and the card-processor Worldpay, as its new chairman, completing a sweeping overhaul at the top of Britain's biggest retailer. (http://bit.ly/1zMhQ7H)

ARTS AND CULTURE BEING 'SYSTEMATICALLY REMOVED FROM UK EDUCATION SYSTEM'

Creativity, culture and the arts are being systematically removed from the education system, with dramatic falls in the number of pupils taking GCSEs in design, drama and other craft-related subjects, a new report has revealed. (http://bit.ly/1zLLyd7)

The Telegraph

TOP LABOUR FIGURE DUMPS ED MILIBAND FOR UKIP

Harriet Yeo, former chairman of Labour's National Executive Committee and one of Labour's most senior figures, has resigned from the party and will be supporting Ukip because of Ed Miliband's failure to offer a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. (http://bit.ly/1vT5C2i)

BP SAYS CO2 EMISSIONS UNSUSTAINABLE, WARNS ON GLOBAL WARMING

BP has warned that carbon dioxide emission levels from burning fossil fuels are unsustainable unless the international community unilaterally introduces tougher binding regulations on atmospheric pollution. (http://bit.ly/19tqoeS)

Sky News

ENERGY REGULATOR FACES BLOW FROM CMA REPORT

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is likely to label the energy industry's regulatory framework as an ongoing "theory of harm" that requires further investigation. The development, which will be included in an issues statement published by the CMA, will represent a blow to Ofgem, the energy regulator. (http://bit.ly/1vdo7xV)

The Independent

TORIES ACCUSED OF HIDING 'TOTALLY SHOCKING' REPORT INTO NHS MANAGEMENT

A withering assessment of NHS management by the Conservative peer Lord Stuart Rose, who is credited with turning around the fortunes of Marks & Spencer, was submitted to the Department of Health in December but has still not been published by the government. (http://ind.pn/1Em9l82)

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

 ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Housing starts for January at 8:30--consensus down 1.7% to 1.07M rate
Building permits for January at 8:30--consensus up 0.9% to 1.07M rate
Producer Price Index for January at 8:30--consensus down 0.4%
Industrial production for January at 9:15--consensus up 0.3%
FOMC minutes from Jan. 27-28 meeting to be released at 14:00

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Agnico Eagle (AEM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Amarin (AMRN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust
Carlyle Group (CG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Danone (DANOY) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Express (EXPR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Legg Mason (LM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Rackspace (RAX) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Valero (VLO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Wolverine World Wide (WWW) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Sterne Agee

Downgrades

CenturyLink (CTL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
EXFO Inc. (EXFO) downgraded to Underperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC
Equity One (EQY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI
Escalade (ESCA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich
Financial Engines (FNGN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Fleetmatics (FLTX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
Insulet (PODD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Linear Technology (LLTC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Qihoo 360 (QIHU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Sasol (SSL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Waddell & Reed (WDR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
zulily (ZU) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird

Initiations

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
Echo Global (ECHO) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Heartland Express (HTLD) initiated with a Sell at UBS
Knight Transportation (KNX) initiated with a Buy at UBS
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna
Neuralstem (CUR) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital
Swift Transport (SWFT) initiated with a Buy at UBS
W.P. Carey (WPC) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Werner (WERN) initiated with a Neutral at UBS

COMPANY NEWS

Boston Scientific (BSX) announced the settlement of the breach of merger agreement lawsuit brought by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) against Guidant, stemming from Boston Scientific's acquisition of Guidant
Perry Ellis (PERY) said West Coast port disruption impacts Q4, FY15 revenues by $23M
Owens & Minor (OMI) initiated search for successor to CEO, increased dividend 1% to 25.25c per share
Fossil Group (FOSL) and Kate Spade (KATE) announced the companies have signed a global licensing agreement for the design, development and distribution of kate spade new york watches through 2025
Fossil sees FY15 results 'significantly negatively impacted' by currency, restructuring
Caterpillar (CAT) disclosed grand jury subpoena from the U.S. District Court for the Central District of Illinois. The subpoena requests documents and information from the company relating to, among other things, financial information concerning U.S. and non-U.S. Caterpillar subsidiaries

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Actavis (ACT), Cinemark (CNK), Allegion (ALLE), Mazor Robotics (MZOR), Cimarex Energy (XEC), Terex (TEX), Consumer Portfolio (CPSS), Viper Energy (VNOM), Innospec (IOSP), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), JBT Corporation (JBT), Neenah Paper (NP), Phototronics (PLAB), Premiere Global (PGI), Varonis (VRNS), FirstEnergy (FE), KAR Auction (KAR), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Flowserve (FLS), Cloud Peak (CLD), Hatteras Financial (HTS), Veeco (VECO), Analog Devices (ADI), Masimo (MASI), Potbelly (PBPB), Borderfree (BRDR), Jack in the Box (JACK), Chemed (CHE), Rogers Corp (ROG), Retail Properties of America (RPAI), ANADIGICS (ANAD), Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Exactech (EXAC), Rackspace (RAX)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Hilton (HLT), Huntsman (HUN), Owens & Minor (OMI), Valmont (VMI), CF Industries (CF), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Greenlight Capital (GLRE), Innophos Holdings (IPHS), Watts Water (WTS), FreightCar America (RAIL), PHH Corp. (PHH), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Devon Energy (DVN), ZixCorp (ZIXI), Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT), Civitas Solutions (CIVI), Fossil (FOSL), T2 Biosystems (TTOO)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Healthcare Realty Trust (HR), Ultra Clean (UCTT), Midcoast Energy (MEP), MedAssets (MDAS), Agilent (A)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

HSBC (HSBC) Swiss offices searched by Geneva authorities, WSJ reports
New York Times (NYT) CEO denies talent flight, Re/code reports
Fosun Pharma interested in acquiring Lumenis (LMNS), Globes reports
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) plans to build SUV vehicle, Financial Times reports
Facebook (FB) developing virtual reality apps, Re/code reports

SYNDICATE

Aramark (ARMK) announces 30M share secondary offering for holders
Inotek Pharmaceuticals (ITEK) 6.667M share IPO priced at $6.00
Neurocrine (NBIX) files to sell $225M in common stock
Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP) 5.25M share Secondary priced at $75.50
Rock Creek files to sell 27.25M shares of common stock for holders

Frontrunning: February 20

$
0
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  • Greece Should Not Give In to Germany’s Bullying (FP)
  • Greece Can Pay Its Debts in Full, but It Won’t (WSJ)
  • Early Friday humor: Euro Region Economy Strengthens Amid Wrangling on Greece  (BBG)
  • Euro zone may need extra summit to clinch Greek deal (Reuters)
  • Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth (WSJ)
  • Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance (BBG) - where does one even start with this one
  • ECB Plans to Push Greek Banks to Shed State Debt If Talks Fail (BBG)
  • Nikkei Sets Another 15-Year High (WSJ)
  • Oil slips toward $60 as oversupply weighs (Reuters)
  • For Obamacare challengers, a Supreme Court case built for speed (Reuters)
  • Pattern of Disobedience at Direct Edge Said to Spur Record Fine (BBG)
  • Ex-Qualcomm executive pleads guilty to insider trading (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* A U.S. judge ruled that American Express's rules for merchants violate antitrust law, the second major setback in a week for CEO Kenneth Chenault. (http://on.wsj.com/1LiKqX2)

* Google is reaching for its Wallet to keep pace with Apple Pay, but differences in the companies' mobile businesses mean it won't be easy. (http://on.wsj.com/1AqoVyI)

* Saudi Aramco is starting to feel the pain from its country's decision to push OPEC members to keep pumping. Now it is asking contractors for steep discounts in an effort to cut costs. (http://on.wsj.com/1AqrUar)

* Huntington Ingalls plans to boost investment and take on more risk. The Navy's largest shipbuilder also posted lower fourth-quarter profit.(http://on.wsj.com/1MAUPih)

* A divided Federal Trade Commission sued to block Sysco Corp's acquisition of rival US Foods Inc, a long-awaited move that sets the stage for a major court battle over a plan to combine the nation's two largest food distributors. (http://on.wsj.com/1Lh41Fb)

* SABMiller Plc is searching for a new chief financial officer after Jamie Wilson resigned with immediate effect, citing personal reasons. (http://on.wsj.com/1GayGTo)

* Japan Display Inc may build a factory in Japan to increase panel production for clients such as Apple Inc , a person familiar with the matter said Friday. (http://on.wsj.com/1DyN7m1)

 

FT

Investment banks in the UK face possible conflicts of interest and anti-competitive practices' investigation by the Financial Conduct Authority regulator.

Overseas visitors seeking to work, study or attend business meetings in the UK would have to demonstrate they respected "British values", under Conservative proposals led by the British Home Secretary Theresa May, to make this commitment an integral part of any visa application.

The recent scandal over tax evasion by clients of HSBC's Swiss arm is threatening to disrupt two potential takeover deals in the private banking industry sector.

Financial institutions need a private forum to share information about traders who break rules, in order to prevent "bad apples" moving from one firm to another, a panel chaired by Elizabeth Corley, head of Allianz Global Investors will tell the Bank of England on Friday.

 

NYT

* Business in both the United States and Hong Kong is being hampered by delays in trans-Pacific shipments of food and festive items. (http://nyti.ms/1DyBBHx)

* Greece is headed toward a potentially destructive standoff with Europe after Germany rejected a last-minute request on Thursday to extend its loan program. Unless the two sides can bridge their differences, Greece could find itself cut off from its financial lifeline and facing insolvency. (http://nyti.ms/183uQAv)

* Less than 12 months after investors valued Snapchat at about $10 billion, the start-up is again in the market for money - and poised to nearly double that valuation. (http://nyti.ms/1Ljau4c)

* Wal-mart Stores Inc, the largest private employer in the country, said that it would increase wages for a half-million employees, a move that comes amid persistent scrutiny of its labor practices and high employee turnover. (http://nyti.ms/1F0xW2e)

* Wall Street is in a transformation, as bonuses shrink, revenue growth stalls and business lines are cut, driven primarily by regulatory efforts. (http://nyti.ms/1AqmVGw)

* A federal judge ruled that a longstanding practice by American Express aimed at keeping customers from using other forms of payment violates United States antitrust laws. (http://nyti.ms/1MD9eKT)

* The Federal Trade Commission filed suit to halt the proposed merger of Sysco Corp's and US Foods Inc, contending that the deal would inflict higher prices and worse service on restaurants, hospitals, hotels, schools and other food service customers. (http://nyti.ms/1LgWpCz)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** A Toronto-based market research firm that did work for Target Corp says it was told to switch an invoice from the retailer's U.S.-based parent to Target Canada just several days before the company filed for creditor protection, leaving the firm with what it says is now a C$232,328 ($186,384) unpaid claim. (http://bit.ly/1F1vDfe)

** Steve Laut, the president of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, delivered a stern warning to the oil sands industry, telling a room full of Fort McMurray business people that they need to start cutting costs or the industry will fall into a "death spiral". (http://bit.ly/1AXAL5g)

** British Columbia's police complaint commissioner has reviewed hundreds of Abbotsford police search warrants and found problems that could put at least 43 cases in jeopardy. The investigation into the alleged misconduct of 17 Abbotsford officers dates as far back as 2008 and could stretch further. (http://bit.ly/1CRx4dG)

NATIONAL POST

** After three years of diligently trying to avoid the inevitable, the embattled board of directors at SNC Lavalin Group Inc went into full combat mode Thursday when the Royal Canadian Mounted Police charged the Montreal-based multinational in connection with a criminal investigation into its dealings in Libya. (http://bit.ly/1FBBvPS)

** In the face of new technology and budget cuts, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation is mulling the sale of its downtown Toronto headquarters, a move network officials admit may shake staff morale and its public image. (http://bit.ly/1EcyV1a)

** Bombardier Inc will sell C$750 million ($601.68 million) worth of shares at a 10 percent discount to its already beaten-down stock price as it seeks to bolster its balance sheet amid deteriorating financial results. (http://bit.ly/1zshdkX)

 

Britain

The Times

LABOUR'S BIGGEST PRIVATE DONOR? 'TAX DODGE SPECIALISTS' ACCOUNTANCY FIRM PWC

Labour's biggest private donor is the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers the Electoral Commission revealed yesterday despite accusations from a senior Labour MP that the firm has been "selling tax avoidance on an industrial scale". (http://thetim.es/1zRI3BS)

BERLIN REJECTS GREEK PLEA TO EXTEND BAILOUT FOR SIX MONTHS

Greece's new radical left government applied today for a six-month extension of its international bailout but Germany dismissed the request because it failed to renew Athens' commitments to reform and spending cuts. (http://thetim.es/1CPfBCN)

The Guardian

UK SOLDIER LEAVES BASE TO JOIN FIGHT AGAINST ISIS - REPORT

A serving British soldier is believed to have travelled to the Middle East to fight against Islamic State. (http://bit.ly/1zRSRQz)

DAILY TELEGRAPH MAKES 'NO APOLOGY' FOR ITS COVERAGE OF HSBC SCANDAL

The Daily Telegraph has published a leader defending its coverage of the HSBC scandal in which it makes "no apology" for the paper's decision to largely ignore the story. (http://bit.ly/1ApK7Vr)

The Telegraph

REXAM RECOMMENDS 4.4 BLN POUNDS BID FROM BALL CORPORATION

Rexam, the British drinks can maker, has recommended a 4.4 billion stg takeover bid from US rival Ball Corporation after securing a break fee worth up to 302 million stg if the deal falls apart. (http://bit.ly/1BrSRNP)

Sky News

CHELSEA SUSPENDS THREE FANS OVER RACIST CHANT

Chelsea have suspended three supporters as the club investigates racist chanting and a black man being pushed on the Paris Metro. The commuter, Sylla Souleymane, appeared to be stopped from getting on an underground train by fans travelling to a Champions League game against Paris St Germain. (http://bit.ly/1ApzNNk)

THREE UK BANKS TO AWARD 2.5 BLN POUNDS-PLUS BONUS POT

Barclays and two taxpayer-backed lenders - Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland - will separately announce approximately 2.8 billion stg in new awards alongside their annual results during the next 12 days. (http://bit.ly/1EbiqT8)

The Independent

BRITISH GAS'S PARENT COMPANY SEES SHARES TUMBLE AFTER ANNOUNCING 35 PCT PROFIT DROP

The parent company of British Gas has seen a dramatic fall in profits after being hit by falling oil prices and warmer weather. Centrica, which as well as owning British Gas also counts Direct Energy and Bord Gais Energy among its assets, saw profits slide by 35 percent for the financial year to 31 December. (http://ind.pn/1DEqPhp)

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI for February at 9:45--consensus 53.6
Baker Hughes rig count for week of February 20 at 13:00--prior 1358

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Aixtron (AIXG) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale
DSW (DSW) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Eni SpA (E) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Knowles (KN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Marvell (MRVL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital
MiMedx (MDXG) upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham
Reliance Steel (RS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc

Downgrades

A. M. Castle (CAS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Approach Resources (AREX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
CIBC (CM) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Caixabank (CAIXY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
EOG Resources (EOG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Fiesta Restaurant (FRGI) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Garmin (GRMN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities
Granite Construction (GVA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Hasbro (HAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Home Loan Servicing (HLSS) downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Home Loan Servicing (HLSS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Host Hotels (HST) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Materion (MTRN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Noodles & Company (ndls) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Noodles & Company (ndls) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Oil States (OIS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Rocket Fuel (FUEL) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) downgraded to Underperform at Keefe Bruyette
Tenaris (TS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Tenaris (TS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
Wal-Mart (WMT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Initiations

Advanced Drainage (WMS) initiated with an Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood
Cash America (CSH) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
DealerTrack (TRAK) coverage resumed with a Buy at Evercore ISI
Forest City (FCE.A) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
GrubHub (GRUB) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Kinder Morgan (KMI) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays

COMPANY NEWS

Intuit (INTU) CFO said fraud did not result from breach of company's systems
BGC Partners (BGCP), GFI Group (GFIG) reached agreement, GFI board supports BGC offer
General Motors (GM) named Craig Glidden as new general counsel
Sanofi (SNY) appointed Olivier Brandicourt CEO
Newmont Mining (NEM) reported FY14 gold reserves 82.2M oz, copper reserves 7.9B lbs

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Barnes Group (B), CommScope (COMM), Genesis Healthcare (GEN), Hudbay Minerals (HBM), EnPro (NPO), New Gold (NGD), AuRico Gold (AUQ), Novatel Wireless (MIFI), Tremor Video (TRMR), Rocket Fuel (FUEL), Universal Electronics (UEIC), AMN Healthcare (AHS), Marvell (MRVL), Paragon Offshore (PGN), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Century Communities (CCS), Tallgrass Energy (TEP), XenoPort (XNPT), Newmont Mining (NEM), inContact (SAAS), TrueCar (TRUE), Arista Networks (ANET), NMI Holdings (NMIH), Spectranetics (SPNC), IPC Healthcare (IPCM), Rovi (ROVI), Bruker (BRKR), Fiesta Restaurant (FRGI), Brocade (BRCD), Intuit (INTU)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Silver Standard (SSRI), Basic Energy (BAS), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Thompson Creek (TC), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Hyster-Yale Materials (HY), Consolidated Edison (ED), Colony Financial (CLNY), Superior Energy (SPN), Universal Truckload (UACL), Chesapeake Lodging (CHSP), Community Health (CYH), BioTelemetry (BEAT), MRC Global (MRC), TESARO (TSRO), Equinix (EQIX), Nordstrom (JWN), Financial Engines (FNGN), Noodles & Company (ndls), California Resources Corp. (crc), Frontier Communications (FTR), Acacia Research (ACTG)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Select Medical (SEM), Internap (INAP)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Ann Inc. (ANN) working with JPMorgan on potential sale, Bloomberg reports
YouTube (GOOG) to release standalone app for kids, WSJ reports
Sony (SNE) may be contemplating replacing CEO Hirai with CFO Yoshida, NY Post reports
Amazon (AMZN) expands two-hour delivery program to Brooklyn, Re/code reports
Bayer (BAYRY) close to selling diabetes unit to Panasonic Healthcare (KKR, PCRFY), Bloomberg says
Apple (AAPL) pushing for 2020 production of its electric car, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

AvalonBay (AVB) files automatic mixed securities shelf
BofI Holding (BOFI) files $300M mixed securities shelf, $50M in common stock
CollabRx (CLRX) 3.84M share Secondary priced at $1.25

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